The actual price of property is 30% lower than what Idealista advertises

The actual price of property is 30% lower than what Idealista advertises

A flat is sold for 370,000 euros while the Idealista average for that area marks 450,000. This is not an isolated case: the difference between the asking price and the final amount signed before a notary has reached its highest level in two decades, according to data cross-referencing portal prices with notary records. Something is going on in the Spanish real estate market, and it is not a neat correction.

The gap between the listing and the deed

Real estate portals publish asking prices, not transaction prices. Idealista reflects what owners ask for, not what buyers are willing to pay. Notaries, on the other hand, record what is actually paid in each transaction. And the difference between these two figures is the highest in 20 years: an average of 30%. There are extreme cases, such as an apartment sold for 370,000 euros when the theoretical average in its area was 450,000—20% less. But the national average is even higher.

Undeclared cash or supply bias: the two explanations

The explanations fall into two camps. The first points to undeclared cash: many buyers pay part of the price in cash, without declaring it, to avoid taxes. The second maintains that portals inflate prices because they only publish what doesn't sell. What sells disappears from the portal, and what remains is off-market. Thus, Idealista's average is fueled by overpriced properties that nobody buys, while real transactions concentrate on the lowest prices. Some add that Idealista prices are aspirational, and sellers list them high only to subsequently drop the price, but not enough to match reality.

The example that clarifies it: why you can't negotiate a 30% discount

A detailed analysis debunks the idea that you can offer 30% less and have it accepted. Imagine ten houses: eight priced at 5,000 euros per square meter and two at 3,000. The Idealista average would be 4,600, but only the two priced at 3,000 sell, so the notary average is 3,000. The difference is 34%, but the real discount is zero: both houses sold at the asking price. The complete calculation, broken down item by item, reveals that the gap is not a discount but a statistical artifact. This means that, in practice, you cannot bargain 30% off on most properties.

Consequences for the buyer

Meanwhile, the average buyer faces a schizophrenic market. For a 200,000 euro flat, they need an 80,000 euro down payment (60,000 plus 10% VAT). And if they secure a mortgage, the Euribor at 3% and fixed rates above 4% make the monthly installment a burden. Buying power has dropped drastically, and advertised prices do not reflect this reality. Drops of 30% are already being seen in some areas since September, but it is not a generalized correction; it is a selective one, affecting the most overpriced flats.

The key takeaway: despite the 30% gap, sellers do not accept discounts of that magnitude. The difference is not a discount; it is a statistical mirage. Meanwhile, the average buyer needs 80,000 euros down payment for a 200,000 euro flat, and the Euribor continues to rise. The market is adjusting, but not as it seems.