GPU prices remain high despite Ethereum merge

The GPU price crash that never materialized

September 2022 was supposed to be the turning point. With the Ethereum merge imminent, Nvidia's 4000 series piling up in warehouses, and Bitcoin in a months-long slump, everything pointed to a collapse in graphics card prices. It didn't happen. Eighteen days after the merge, prices remained, as early discussion posts put it, "ridiculous" and "ULTRA INFLATED." The RTX 40 series has been sitting in storage for two months, and retailers aren't moving old stock. The question is no longer when prices will drop, but whether anyone intends to buy them while they stay high.

Why aren't GPU prices falling if Bitcoin is down?

The logic of the second-hand market has broken down. With cryptocurrency mining retreating, the flow of used GPUs should have pressured new prices downward. It hasn't. The prevailing argument is that inflation and Spanish retail practices have prevented this drop from reaching store shelves: distributors bought at high costs and refuse to acknowledge losses.

There is agreement on one uncomfortable point. Consumers have stopped buying. This isn't an organized strike, but fatigue: those who can manage with what they have are doing so. Those who can't look at the price and leave. This standoff between full warehouses and absent customers explains why the market is frozen.

Geographic details matter more than they seem. Cards are expensive relative to Spanish wages but cheap compared to US, Australian, or Belgian salaries. The same product holds two different valuations depending on the paycheck, and Spanish retailers cannot adjust prices without eating into their margins.

Ethereum merge and the missed wave of second-hand sales

Expectations were pinned on Ethereum's mid-September transition. The thesis was simple: if mining becomes unprofitable, thousands of used cards hit the market, dragging down retail prices and encouraging individual buyers to return. On paper, flawless.

In practice, the second-hand market crashed in the United States immediately after the change, but retail prices didn't budge by a single euro. Used stock remained where it was, partly because nobody wants a card that has been mining 24 hours a day with components pushed to the limit. The announced domino effect still hasn't triggered.

Nvidia holding RTX 40s in warehouses since August

While prices for older graphics cards don't fall, new ones don't arrive. Information published in mid-September indicated that Nvidia had kept the 4000 series in warehouses for at least a month and a half, with assemblers waiting for instructions to ship them. Two delays unconfirmed by the company and no official date.

The delay fits a broader strategy highlighted by the community: dilute old stock before releasing the new. And with a communication operation that raised eyebrows—paying content creators to steer conversation toward FUD and cool expectations—the reaction to this attempt at manipulation was, however you look at it, a miscalculation.

From R9 390X to €4,000 RTX 3090

The historical contrast is devastating. In June 2015, a Radeon R9 390X sold for around €360, antiestéticaturing 8 GB VRAM and a 512-bit bus. Today, seven years later, mid-range cards with 128-bit buses cost more and perform worse. Anyone reviewing specs and prices year over year faces a conclusion hard to dispute.

Go back further. In mid-2012, a HD 6850 with 1 GB cost about €100 on sale and ran Battlefield 3 at 1080p between 45 and 60 frames per second. In 2000, a high-end Nvidia card cost around 60,000 or 70,000 pesetas, a fortune at the time. Money has lost value, yes, but that doesn't explain all the jumps. The 60 series went from costing €300 to €400. And some saw a RTX 3090 listed at €4,000.

Is it worth upgrading now or waiting?

The gamer's response, not the speculator's, is nearly unanimous: if you don't need it, don't buy it. Some still rely on a Vega64, a GTX 970, or a twelve-year-old GTX 1050 Ti. As long as the hardware turns on, it lasts. An alternative that sounded like a joke five years ago is emerging: playing via streaming with good fiber, without spending a thousand euros on a card.

Consensus exists on forecasts: the RTX 4070 should offer RTX 3090 Ti power for around €500. On paper. If this holds, the drop comes naturally; if not, the 3000 series stays where it is.

The end isn't in sight. Nobody knows how long this standoff between held-back stock and a buyer who has lost the habit of checking prices can last. What is clear is that stores bought high, manufacturers accumulate inventory, and the clock keeps ticking.