Gold Outperforms Bonds and Dollar as Global Reserve Asset

Gold now outweighs bonds and the dollar in world reserves

At some point in 2026, gold ceased to be merely a safe haven asset recalled during crises, becoming the planet's primary store of value. According to data tracked by methodical investors, yellow metal now represents 27% of global reserves, surpassing the 22% held in US Treasury bonds and the 15% in euros. This figure is not idle speculation: it results from a silent flight from paper to metal executed by central banks for years, institutionalized by Basel III equating gold with sovereign debt as a reserve asset.

Meanwhile, the bond market faces its own hell. Yields on 30-year Treasuries hit their highest level since 2007, French 10-year bonds climbed to 4.13%—a 17-year peak—German Bunds rose to 3.26%, and Italian BTPs sat just two basis points below November's peak. In Spain, the 10-year yield gained seven basis points to reach 3.71%. The question hovering over every trading desk remains the same: who is selling all this debt? The uncomfortable answer points to those who bought it over the last decade.

Oil and the strait nobody wants to watch

Brent crude surged 13.6% in a single week, while unleaded gasoline fell 12.7% and copper dropped 3.4%. The trigger is none other than the war with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, where maritime traffic has collapsed: six cargo ships crossed the strait in one day, compared to nine the previous day and an average of eleven over the last ten days. Refineries in Russia and the Middle East are destroyed on a large scale, overloading facilities elsewhere and forcing maintenance shutdowns to be postponed. The result is a bottleneck threatening a hot autumn-winter price spike.

Some argue that gold and silver behaved as expected in this context, offering opportunities for those willing to buy. The most optimistic calculation assumes the metal will hold support at $4,000 and rebound; the pessimistic scenario starts from a hedge fund liquidation dragging prices down by several hundred dollars. Silver, meanwhile, still awaits official declaration as a monetary metal, though it has always been so de facto.

The AI bubble and the crash that hasn't arrived yet

The tech sector lives in permanent contradiction. The five major cloud service providers—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle—have collectively invested hundreds of billions of dollars in 2026 and accumulate approximately $3.2 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments, according to Goldman Sachs. Michael Burry warned in October that the stock market is in the first stage of grief, denial, which lasts between six and nine months. The Nasdaq has fallen 4% in thirty minutes in recent sessions. Yet, the index continues to resist.

Henrik Zeberg's thesis suggests the S&P 500 could rise to 8,000 points before collapsing to the 800-2,000 range. It sounds insane, but fits the idea that the bubble hasn't burst yet and a massive rally is coming. Some have already sold everything they had in stocks, accepting losses, while others prefer buying put options against semiconductor ETFs. These two stances coexist in the same market that yesterday vaporized $3 trillion on Wall Street.

Trump, the man moving markets with a tweet

The US president's ability to manipulate markets daily has shifted from suspicion to everyday observation. His main justification for attacks on Iran was the downing of an Apache helicopter, emphasizing that the only real obstacle with Tehran is the nuclear program. Without admitting it, he implied the US arsenal has dwindled significantly: Biden gave much to Ukraine, and he now sells it to Europe to pass on to Ukrainians. The result is a war campaign that broke his central promise: "I won't start a war."

Voters haven't forgiven him. The Democratic victory in the 2026 midterms was read as punishment for war and rising living costs. Meanwhile, gold keeps rising. Central banks continued buying during the dip. China began transferring part of its reserves from London to Hong Kong, joining the global repatriation of metal. Revaluing US reserves at market prices would add $1.13 trillion to a balance sheet unaudited for decades.

The infrastructure crisis nobody wants to see

Demand for high-estimulante ilegal rail (AVE) sinks due to chronic underinvestment causing incidents and delays. Media pat themselves on the back for Spanish economic growth exceeding other European countries, but reality is stubborn: the railway network can't keep pace, and users are starting to switch modes. It's the same infrastructure crisis affecting roads, water, and energy, disguised as macroeconomic success thanks to accelerated migrant labor integration.

In Ceuta, mass migration arrivals have exceeded all forecasts. Some claim Segarro needs no weapons to take Ceuta and Melilla, only patience to introduce Segarro population until independence is demanded in a couple of generations. Others recall Segarro's rearmament is real and the pattern repeats since the Green March. Border militarization discussions are on the table, with no solution seeming possible without conflict.

---

The exact point where analysis stalls is the same as ever: data points to an unprecedented debt crisis, a tech bubble that won't pop, and gold becoming the quintessential reserve asset. But markets keep rising. Until they stop. Then no one will know if the crash was the trigger or the consequence.