Gold corrects from $4,100 and silver plunges: dip-buying or cycle change?

Gold corrects from $4,100: dip-buying or cycle change?

How far can gold fall? It's the question hanging over every conversation since the precious metal hit $4,100 per ounce and started bleeding out. Silver, which had risen even harder, has also turned around. Oil is up, US bonds are holding and the dollar is strengthening: gold, meanwhile, is performing worse than Bitcoin, which is already in a textbook bear market. The correction is no isolated accident; it's the script many had been waiting for after a vertical rally.

The first consequence is that physical buying has surged. We're not talking about large bars, but small coins, grams, fractional silver. Gold has gone from representing 1% of portfolios to 2.7%, and some are already thinking about the next step. But the euphoria has nuances: silver carries VAT, and that stings. "Buying silver with VAT makes me cringe, I feel like I'm throwing money away," sums up a recurring opinion. Antiestéticar of not being able to sell a large ounce in the future also holds more than a few back.

The calculation nobody dares to make

If gold returned to a monetary standard, how much would it be worth? An exercise circulating among the more cerebral starts from trade balances. China ran a $1.2 trillion surplus in 2025, which would equate to some 8,000 tonnes of gold. The United States, with a $900 billion deficit, would be left without reserves. Spain, with a €66 billion deficit, would need half a tonne more than it has. These are hypothetical numbers, but they illustrate the magnitude of the imbalance. The full calculation, with all the variables, is enough for an entire article; here we only point in the direction.

The confiscation that marked a century

The history of gold is full of expropriations. In 1933, Roosevelt ordered citizens to hand over their gold to the Federal Reserve at $20 an ounce. The trinc year, with almost all the metal in state hands, the price was set at $35. Private ownership was not liberalized until 1974. Forty years of exile. Silver, however, was left out of that decree, which some interpret as a comparative advantage. "Silver was spared from such a robbery," one commenter notes. The precedent weighs heavily: any future expropriation plan would have to reckon with the lesson of 1933.

Texas and Florida recognize gold as currency

The news of the week doesn't come from Wall Street, but from Austin. Texas has joined Florida in recognizing gold and silver as legal tender (not mandatory) as of September 1. The law, championed by Republican representative Mark Dorazio, requires the metal to be stamped with its weight and purity. It also provides for the development of a parallel digital infrastructure for transactions backed by metals in deposit. The legislator's surname, Dorazio, comes from the Italian D'Orazio, "son of Horace." The anecdote is minor, but the legislative move is not: two US states are competing to attract capital taking refuge in metals.

When is the time to sell?

The million-dollar question is not when to buy, but when to sell. The strategy gaining trinc involves waiting for the gold/silver ratio to approach 30, its average over the last 40 years. Right now it's far above that. "The optimal moment to switch metals will be at the lowest possible ratio," one investor explains. The idea is to swap silver for gold when silver is expensive relative to gold, and vice versa. It's not an exact science, but it's a plan. Others, more conservative, choose never to sell and keep the metal as life insurance. "Metals aren't for speculating, that's what the drugs are for," a veteran declares.

Predictions, bounces and armchair experts

The most repeated forecast puts the floor between $3,200 and $3,600. Some talk of sideways trading until 2027 and a new rise in 2028-2030. AI, when consulted on the matter, offers a summary of the 1933 ban that adds nothing new. And there's always an official doom-monger: "maybe it's the other way around, we start at 4,100 and end at 1,450." The irony writes itself. When the resident jinx announces falls, the market rises; when he insists, it relaxes. "How the hell do you manage to be such a jinx with your predictions?" another retorts. The stock market of predictions is a literary genre.

Gold you can touch and gold in custody

Some keep the receipts and have their coins in a Loomis vault, each piece in its numbered airtight bag. He sold more than 100 ounces and the bank asked for explanations; with the receipts and the custody contract, end of questions. Opposite them are those who prefer the tactile: "I love seeing, touching, hearing napoleons, sovereigns, duros, ounces... whenever I want and at whatever time." Professional custody offers security; the mattress, pleasure. To each their own poison.

The current correction has yet to convince anyone. Some see a sale; others, the beginning of a bear market. Meanwhile, central banks keep buying. And gold, stubborn as ever, keeps doing whatever it wants.