Gaza City: Ground Offensive Duration Unknown

Gaza City: The War Decided Underground

The discussion opens with an unnuanced tweet: an order attributed to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to leave no one alive, celebrated with crude slang. From there, the conversation splits in two: those expecting a quick Israeli victory in Gaza City and those starting to count casualties. General Yaron Finkelman, head of Southern Command, signs off on the message collected in the thread: "We are launching an attack against Hamas and terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip. Our goal is one: victory." The promise is total. Three years later, the question remains unanswered.

What Israel Stakes in the Invasion of Gaza City

The first phase of the narrative is euphoric. There is talk of flattening neighborhoods, sinking humanitarian aid ships, and daring Erdogan not to send another convoy. The dominant tone suggests Israeli military superiority will suffice to close the matter in weeks. Messages citing the Southern Command commander insist on the same idea: "No matter how long or difficult the fighting, there is no other outcome than victory."

The problem emerges when uncomfortable data arrives. An Israeli journalist from Channel 14, close to the military establishment, hints that "purple bleeds," a coded reference to Givati Brigade casualties without abusa military censorship. Another message claims 16 NATO generals fell, a figure nobody confirms and which is laughed off. The joke doesn't last long: the thread asserts that Israeli soldiers are falling in Gaza "in droves, even divisional generals."

Gaza Tunnels and Underground Warfare

The technical question running through the discussion is how to fight a city mined by kilometers of galleries. A participant launches the most repeated hypothesis: entry isn't necessary. "If you flatten the buildings, you eliminate some entrances. If you pass through the street with an excavator over the rubble path, you block the street ones. If they can't get out, they die inside." The idea of suffocating the underground system without entering it clashes with doubts about whether all tunnels are interconnected.

Against this thesis, the material gathered points to a different reality for the actual offensive. The attack on Jabalia is described not as building bombardment but as subterranean action where surface damage results from missile-induced "earthquakes." Specific bunker-busting bombs are cited. In this reading, the war in Gaza City isn't fought in the streets: it's fought underground, at a cost neither side fully publishes.

Casualties, Military Censorship, and Victory Narrative

The thread becomes harsher when videos emerge of militants destroying Israeli tanks in the Zaitoun neighborhood and images of Israeli parliament members crying after a session. Several messages conclude there are "many more IDF casualties than they'd like to admit." Israeli military censorship, mentioned in passing, explains why data arrives in code rather than figures.

In parallel, international effects are debated. One message recalls that 80% of Nagorno-Karabakh was displaced and the international community didn't care. Another takes it further: "Each day makes it clearer they'll raze Gaza and nothing will happen." The recurring thesis is that the Arab world won't risk its standard of living for Gaza's population, nor will neighboring countries accept them as refugees. Declared solidarity, they argue, doesn't translate into action.

Diplomatic Front: Erdogan, Iran, and Aircraft Carriers

Mockery toward regional actors is constant. Questions arise whether Hezbollah and Iran will sink the 24 announced US aircraft carriers, with irony that hypersonic missiles exist "but are Russian, and these guys don't give a damn." Regarding Turkey, the bet is that Erdogan won't repeat sending a ship with aid and weapons, and if he does, Netanyahu "will sink it right in his face."

The thread's closure offers no resolution. Final messages say the offensive is "practically ready to begin," while others claim the IDF is stalled in Gaza City. Both cannot be true simultaneously, and that contradiction exactly reflects the situation: an operation announced as decisive still lacks an end date.

How long can Israel sustain an urban underground war before political costs turn against it?