From Tech Stocks to Mining: A Portfolio for the Bubble

From Tech Stocks to Mining: A Portfolio for the Bubble

The order was placed on June 28, 2020, with WTI closing at $38.91. A limited purchase order was set on the ETF replicating the September futures contract: 3,1712 euros per share and a 5% stop loss. Not much at first glance. The important thing is the framework: leveraging market liquidity to take positions in assets considered speculative, rather than in companies deemed solid. The initial thesis was not classic fundamental analysis, but the well-known K-Marshallian theory: when liquidity exceeds nominal economic growth, it overflows into assets and forms bubbles.

A Portfolio That Started in Tech and Ended in Commodities

The first snapshot of the operation combined highly recognizable names with concrete results: NEE contributed 87.19 euros in the week of July 20, 2020, eBay 96.49, B2Gold 129.55, while Apple subtracted 72.46 euros, Microsoft 35.90 and JD 58.30. Tesla added 94.82 euros and NIO, 72.48. The stated logic was participating in the liquidity party—the author of the tracking maintains that the market was at levels comparable only to 1921 and surpassed by the dot-com bubble—but entering with small packages and reducing risk as the position gained.

The shift toward commodities was gradual and deliberate. First oil and BASF—a package of 1,000 euros with a stop loss at 48 euros, an area identified as strong support—later gold, silver, and copper.
Regarding gold, the thesis was firm: it was described as a 'hyper-manipulated' commodity, trapped between $1,680 and $1,780 per ounce when, according to the analysis, it should have broken through $1,800.

Where Physical Silver Comes In and What Happens with the Broker

The exposure to metals was not limited to miners. 500 Troy ounces of silver were accumulated at an average price of $24.2, with predefined entry prices for scaling up: copper at 2.91, silver at 23.5, and gold at 1,850. The purchase was made through Interactive Brokers' spot metals product after detecting that the account warned of too low a “margin cushion,” signaling that leverage was beginning to tighten. The planned strategy was to double the position if silver took off and sell 25% of the total upon 50% increases, allowing the rest to withstand volatility with greater tolerance.

Explorers, Penny Stocks, and a Lottery Ticket

The most aggressive phase arrived with exploration companies and small caps. A specific section was peine for stocks capitalizing less than about 60 million euros, with a target weight of 5% to 7% of the portfolio. Bets included Powerband Solutions, touted as 'the automotive Amazon'; Decklar, with drilling sites in Nigeria under a Risk Service Agreement and potential of up to 20,000 barrels per day once developed; i3 Energy, with production of 9,500 barrels per day and proven reserves of 58 million equivalent barrels for a capitalization of 122 million Canadian dollars; or Afentra, which submitted a non-binding expression of interest in assets in Angola.

There was also room for uranium. After three months holding a sector miner, the position gained validity when a committee of the U.S. Senate unlocked a strategic reserve plan. The argument: the world would have let the mining industry die, only to discover later that it was not a dead sector. All the numerical detail of the theses, with models and discounted cash flow calculations broken down, is where it truly becomes clear whether the bet was founded or mere noise.

The Mistakes That Were Documented

The tracking itself records the wounds. A margin call on the Binance account where part of the bitcoin positions were held, which was liquidated afterward. Large losses in Windfall and Nevada Silver Corp, the latter due to management described as incapable of maintaining a decent website. A position in Fortinet that was trapped because the stop loss was not placed. And a gold mine in Turkey, Eldorado Gold, that absorbed the entire drop after the country increased taxes, because the position was not trimmed while it was positive.

The Method Behind the Speculation

Beyond successes, the operation showed recognizable discipline: a near-default 5% stop loss, partial sales to release risk when the position accumulated a 20% or 30% gain, and liquidity maintained above 30% of the account in some stages. The idea of only investing money that is neither needed today, tomorrow, nor within five years also appeared. That phrase, in a portfolio with penny stocks and exploration miners, serves as a seatbelt.

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The journey concludes, in the last recorded stages, with public presentations on a YouTube channel—Adriatic Metals at 18:00—and the almost inevitable acknowledgment that some positions did not hold up. The striking detail is none of the gains. It is that much of the cited stocks, years later, still have no exit price: they were waiting for what they called the bubble to burst.