France: 40% of Children Under 4 Are Children or Grandchildren of Immigrants

40% of children aged 0-4 in France are children or grandchildren of immigrants

In April 2023, Pierre Brochand, a former ambassador and head of French intelligence services, stated that around 40% of children aged 0 to 4 in France are children or grandchildren of immigrants. His diagnosis presented two negative outcomes: pogre implosion of social trust or successive explosions.

The debate also addresses the July riots, public spending, and the potential impact on Spain.

What did Pierre Brochand say about immigration in France?

Brochand was an ambassador and directed French intelligence services. His thesis is that decades of open-door policies not only impoverish the country but threaten it with open confrontations. He summarized it as trinc: fifty years ago France had the best public services in the world, and today it complains about their low level. The question he raises is what has peine in that time.

He adds figures: 450,000 people enter each year without contributing to the infrastructure they use from day one, and 2.6 million people hosted in the last five years.

The figures supporting the demographic warning

The data handled are of three types: entries —450,000 per year—, accumulated stock —2.6 million in five years—, and population structure. On the latter point, a report from the Institut Montaigne, a French think tank, noted that the 32% of the population under 60 has immigrant origin.

The article recalls that demographic replacement was dismissed as an extreme-right conspiracy theory until a report like that from the Institut Montaigne brought it to the realm of data.

The economic cost: public services and net contributors

The economic argument also appears in the debate. It is argued that the arrival of unskilled population from failed states puts pressure on already strained public services, because —it is argued— much of those who arrive are net recipients: they receive benefits and barely contribute to the financing of the system. On the opposite side, the classic rebuttal: European societies are aging, have no children, and need labor to support pensions.

July 2023: Nahel's death and the riots

In July 2023, the matter ceased to be theoretical. Nahel, a 17-year-old of Algerian origin, drove without a license and fled when a police officer asked him to stop. The officer shot and killed him. The spark ignited in an ordinary suburb and, according to that analysis, nearly dragged the country into open conflict.

Scenes repeated in Marseille, Strasbourg, and other cities: vandalized police vehicles and banners with expulsion messages. The appearance of a single banner with that message was read as a symptom: fifteen years ago it was unthinkable, it was said.

The parallel with Spain: 600 million Spanish speakers

The conversation soon turned to Spain. The most repeated argument is that the country carries a structural vulnerability: 600 million people speak Spanish and can access nationality in two years, which turns any regional migration crisis into potentially greater pressure. This is compounded by the fact that Spain expects to receive 235,000 foreigners per year, with a surge of Africans over Latin Americans.

Not everyone shares the diagnosis. Some argue that Spain will collapse before France; against that thesis, others claim that the Spanish-speaking community shares language and culture, which would facilitate integration.

What scenarios are being considered for France?

The pessimistic scenario concludes that the reaction can only be extreme and that any political change will come too late. The scenario focusing on the economy notes that France is not viable without its African Francophone market —the CFA franc and the network of former colonies—, so its problem would be economic before it is migratory.

There are also those who expect little from politicians and argue that change is already unstoppable, so the solution would be to reduce dependence on the system.

Brochand himself warned that if nothing is done or little is done, France is heading towards a pogre implosion of social trust or successive explosions.