Four years without a budget: the real cost of rail maintenance in Spain

Four years without a national budget and a rail network falling apart

Governing without a national budget (Presupuestos Generales del Estado, Spain's annual state budget) is no hallway anecdote: it is an anomaly that has now spanned several fiscal years and, according to the figures being cited, has left rail maintenance with half the promised investment. The debate starts with an uncomfortable question: whose fault is it when a government does not submit an updated budget and Parliament is not dissolved?

The starting point is a term in office held together by budget extensions. Submitting the state budget is not only a political obligation but a constitutional mandate that has been dodged during this period. Meanwhile, the rail network keeps ageing.

Adif received 46% of what was committed

The numbers are stubborn. At Adif Alta Velocidad, transfers from the central government barely reached 46% of the total committed. Across Adif as a whole, the figure rises to 57% of the resources committed by the Ministry of Transport for the 2021-2025 period.

Some point out that maintenance does not depend on the budget, because it must be carried out one way or another; what depends on the budget is investment. The point is fair, but it clashes with the evidence: if the funding line is not there, someone has to decide what gets left undone.

Can you govern without passing a budget?

The short answer is yes, through extensions. The long answer is that you govern with the previous year's budget, with no room for new investment or for reshuffling priorities. In that scenario, the opposition has one way out: refuse to help pass the budget. And the government has another: call an election. Neither has been taken.

The argument that the blame lies with whoever refuses to dissolve Parliament when the budget is not approved has some traction. So does the opposite: if there is no majority to pass it, the problem lies with whoever fails to build one.

The Belgian precedent and the Spanish exception

It has been pointed out that no case is known in Western democracies of a stable government ruling for three and a half years without a budget. Belgium went through long periods without a government, but only in a caretaker capacity. The comparison helps measure how exceptional the situation is, not resolve it.

What is clear is that extensions come at a price. The rail network is the proof: when investment arrives at half the promised level, maintenance suffers. And the debate over whether the money would have been better spent with a budget in place remains open.

On this basis, any prediction is a gamble: without a new budget, investment will keep falling short of what was promised. If there is one, we will see whether maintenance is a priority or remains the line item that gets cut.