Explosions in several Belarusian cities with no confirmed cause

Explosions in Belarus: three accounts and no confirmed cause

What was heard on the night of March 16 in Baranovichi, Luninets, Slutsk, Stolin or Kletsk? Belarusian media reported sounds “like explosions” in several cities at once and limited themselves to saying the information was being verified. Out of that fog, within a few hours, three incompatible accounts emerged: artillery drills, an alleged coup against Lukashenko and a Russian rocket attack on Ukraine. The only shared certainty is the worst one: whoever could have known what was happening wasn't saying.

The figures the opposition put on the table

Pavel Latushko, a Belarusian opposition figure in exile, offered the day's most cited detail: in three hours, more than 30 aircraft—combat and transport planes and helicopters—reportedly took off from the airfields of Baranovichi, Gomel, Lida and Luninets, and six missiles were reportedly launched near Kalinkovichi. He added that a new batch of missiles had arrived in the country, with a column of Russian military equipment on the M5 Minsk-Gomel highway and an Antonov AN-124 landing at night at an airfield near Minsk.

The same day, Latushko signed a statement claiming that Belarus is “occupied territory,” Russia an occupying country and Lukashenko's regime a “puppet government.” These are statements from an interested party, with no independent verification in sight. But they set the tone: the Belarusian opposition tried to frame the blasts within a narrative of a hijacked country, not a technical incident.

Drills, missiles or coup: the three versions

The most mundane explanation came via another route: the noises would fit scheduled military artillery drills in Brest. It is the hypothesis that generated the least media buzz and, by far, the hardest to rule out from the outside. The second version points to live fire far from home: according to Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko, residents would have heard rockets fired by Russian forces at the Ukrainian city of Sarny, not far from the border. The third, the most ambitious, is the one held by those who speak of an internal coup against Lukashenko.

All three fit within the same minutes, and none provides conclusive footage. Some recall that cross-border warnings were piling up: Ukraine would have abusa Belarusian airspace with aircraft and, it was claimed, planned to attack Belarus from four points on February 23 and 24. Propaganda material, or counterinformation, depending on who tells it.

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The information blackout and the war over the label

There is a detail that went almost unnoticed and explains much of the rest: the social network assigned Latushko the label of “government official” despite his being in exile. That kind of mark is what decides who is automatically given credibility. Meanwhile, international media limited themselves to repeating that there was “little data and a lot of speculation.”

Part of the analysis holds that the silence of Belarusian official channels is the most eloquent signal of all. Both readings are plausible, and neither can be closed with what is available.

What can be taken as certain at the close of this discussion

Little. That there were reports of blasts in several Belarusian cities, that the opposition put figures on the table, and that the most boring explanation — drills — still hasn't made headlines. Anyone expecting closure to this story won't find it here: at the point where it was left, no one had independently confirmed the origin of the explosions.

The lesson repeats every time a border, a missile and a mobile phone cross paths: the first draft of these episodes is always written by whoever has the most interest in making you believe it.