EU weighs fuel rationing as IEA proposes demand cuts

EU weighs fuel rationing as IEA proposes demand cuts

The European Union has shifted its rhetoric from energy efficiency to national security. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned that oil and gas prices will not return to normal even if the war with Iran ends, and his department is considering rationing measures in the face of a prolonged energy shock. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed a ten-point plan including lowering highway estimulante ilegal limits, expanding remote work, restricting private car use in major cities, and avoiding flights when alternatives exist. Meanwhile, airlines such as Volotea and Ryanair have announced cancellations and warned of potential jet fuel supply disruptions.

What exactly does the IEA plan say?

The document adopted by the EU is not merely a statement of intent. It consists of ten concrete measures to curb fuel demand in a scenario of prolonged tension. Reduce highway speeds by at least 10 km/h, promote remote work where possible, make public transport cheaper and more robust, limit private car use in large cities through license plate restrictions, encourage carpooling and efficient driving. For freight transport, optimize routes and loads. For LPG, reserve it for essential domestic uses like cooking. For aviation, reduce flights when reasonable alternatives exist.

The IEA argues these are the most immediate and effective measures to cut gasoline and diesel consumption. The focus is on jet fuel and diesel, the two products causing the greatest concern in the European market. This is not a climate slogan, the agency insists: it is a direct tool for energy security.

Why Europe imports 40% of its aviation fuel

Europe imports over 40% of its aviation fuel to meet demand, with most coming from the Gulf. This data, repeated in analyses circulating recently, explains why airlines are moving first. Volotea has canceled flights between April and October. Ryanair has warned of a possible fuel supply interruption in May. There are messages claiming thousands of flights were canceled during the same week as Easter.

According to available information, the last shipment of jet fuel for Europe arrived on April 9. From that point on, the risk of flight cancellations this summer ceases to be hypothetical. The Strait of Hormuz remains the bottleneck through which much of this supply passes, and any closure or blockade has an immediate effect on prices and availability.

The 2018 Peak Oil and the fight for remaining resources

One school of analysis places the origin of all this long before the Ukraine war. It argues that global oil production peaked in 2018, that the US peak occurred in the 1970s, and that what we have seen since 2022—energy wars, supply cuts, tension in the Strait of Hormuz—is the logical consequence of a world with less margin. When there is less to share, conflicts begin, summarizes one of the most repeated viewpoints.

Against this, there is a hard-to-refute argument: some maintain that oil reserves have continued to rise since the term "peak oil" became popular, and that wars for resource control have been occurring for a century, long before the term existed. Hubbert, Meadows, and the Limits to Growth are, according to another part of the analysis, Malthusians who have been wrong for decades. In any case, the debate is not academic: it affects whether this is a temporary dip or a permanent change.

Mandatory remote work, odd-even plates, and the precedent of the 70s

The measure generating the most resistance in the workplace is remote work. Companies resist generalizing it, and many workers choose it as a criterion for selecting employers. If the EU pushes it as mandatory, conflict is guaranteed. In the 1970s, Germany already saw closed gas stations and traffic restrictions based on odd or even license plates. They haven't invented anything, proponents of this view note: they are reviving the playbook of the oil crisis.

Commissioner Jørgensen has been clear: energy prices will be "higher for a long time." The EU is not facing a formal rationing scenario, but rather the need to contain tension that is already affecting diesel, jet fuel, and other refined products. The question is not whether measures will be taken, but how long it will take for them to become mandatory.

What happens with tourist apartments and budget flights?

There is a collateral effect no one had forecasted: the end of cheap air travel as an acquired right. If flying becomes a luxury again, tourist apartments bought at inflated prices to rent out for weekend nights lose part of their economic logic. Airbnbs in commuter towns, flats with aluminosis and cheap materials that, according to calculations circulating online, were purchased 500% above their actual value. Proximity tourism—villages, nearby beaches—replaces distant trips.

The other side is daily mobility. If private cars are restricted in major cities and remote work becomes widespread, the map of where people live and work could shift more in two years than in the previous two decades. We won't return to normal, says Brussels. The question is what normality remains.

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With these elements, the EU has a package on the table touching on estimulante ilegal, work, flights, and cooking. How long will it take for it to stop being a recommendation and become a decree?