Electric car limits: 8 million vs 80 million combustion vehicles

The ceiling for electric cars: 8 million a year versus 80 million combustion

Eight million. That is the figure that emerges when analyzing global lithium production. If all the mineral extracted on the planet were used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles, the annual limit would be eight million units. Global vehicle production, meanwhile, hovers around 80 million a year, well below the nearly 100 million seen in 2018. The math is simple and the result uncomfortable: it would take 175 years to replace the global fleet of 1.4 billion cars. And this calculation does not even account for the fact that lithium is also used in mobile phones, tablets, laptops, and data center backup systems.

The debate surrounding Spain's Climate Change and Energy Transition Law has focused on Article 15, which mandates the installation of charging points. Some argue that the mass adoption of electric cars remains uncertain, and that the regulation assumes something the numbers do not support. The obligation extends to service stations that sold more than 5 million liters of fuel in 2019, which must cover the cost of charging points. Starting this year, renewing a station's operating license will require installing a charging point, regardless of fuel sales. The new Technical Building Code will also mandate charging points in residential garages.

How much lithium is needed to build 8 million electric cars?

The short answer: approximately 0.128 million tons. This figure comes from assuming a 50 kWh vehicle requires about 8 kilograms of metallic lithium. Based on this reference, current global production would support those eight million cars per year. The number is not static: in 2010, annual lithium production was 27,000 tons, and it has tripled since then, albeit with considerable fluctuations. The amount of lithium per car has also decreased significantly.

The problem, skeptics point out, is not just lithium. Cobalt and neodymium present worse bottlenecks. Moreover, extraction consumes energy: if oil becomes scarce, the cycle closes. Some recall that Chilean copper requires moving increasingly more earth to obtain the same quantity, and within a few years it will no longer be profitable. The discussion is not new: in 1972, predictions stated that oil problems would arise by the year 2000. They missed by five years. Refining and hydraulic fracturing patched the issue. Now, they argue, there are no patches left.

Lithium reserves: from Cáceres to Chile

Data on reserves temper the pessimism. Chile alone has more than 9 million tons of available lithium. The San José de Valdeflórez mine in Cáceres, Spain, which is proposed for development, contains estimated reserves of 1.6 million tons of lithium carbonate, equivalent to about 0.16 million tons of metallic lithium. This is nearly six times the 2010 global production. With these figures, the Extremadura mine could supply enough material for about 10 million vehicles. The Iberian Peninsula would have sufficient lithium to replace all its vehicles with electric ones. Other European countries might lack enough lithium, but Chile has discovered reserves capable of producing 600 million cars, representing 60% of the world's current vehicle fleet. Furthermore, many more reserves remain undiscovered and unexploited.

The counter-argument is equally strong: lithium extraction consumes energy, and processing rare earths is highly polluting. A rare earth element is not necessarily scarce, but it exists in minimal proportions in the Earth's crust, requiring the removal of entire mountains to obtain small amounts. The main global producers are China and other countries, which critics say disregard environmental concerns. Ninety percent of so-called eco-technology relies on rare earths, and their extraction is, in itself, an ecological offense.

Have predictions about lithium and electric cars come true?

No. In 2010, forecasts predicted lithium would run out by 2020 and that there would not be enough to produce more than 10 million electric vehicles globally. Reality has been different. In 2020, 3.1 million electric cars were manufactured, and projections suggest around 4.5 million this year. Between 2010 and 2020, between 12 and 14 million electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles were produced, with 50-55% being pure electric models. Pure electric vehicles will reach 10 million in 2022 or 2023, according to optimistic estimates. Those who claimed the maximum was 1.5 million a year and 10 million in total have already proven wrong.

Criticism of doom-sayers is relentless: in 2010, collapse theorists said no more cars could be made, yet 77 million were produced; in 2019, the figure exceeded 90 million. In 2010, they said there was not enough lithium for electric cars and it would end by 2020; today, those self-imposed limits have been broken. Lithium production has increased by more than 120% in ten years, while the amount of lithium per car has fallen. The scenario drawn a decade ago has not materialized.

The energy cost of manufacturing: the argument that stands

Manufacturing solar panels, wind turbines, or dams is not free in terms of energy. This is the core of the debate. Some maintain that the transition is being built using old, fossil-fuel energy, invalidating the narrative. The response is that new technologies have always been constructed using previous ones until completion. Solar, wind, and electric cars are not cold fusion: they exist here and are mass-produced every year. But the energy cost of manufacturing cement, panels, or batteries is real and does not disappear by decree.

According to the most critical voices, the future of transport lies in natural gas. Internal combustion engine technology is current, and making it run on methane is viable, though it requires special tanks. Combined with hybridization systems, some promise 50% efficiency in utilizing the hydrocarbon's energy capacity. For many years, electric vehicles would only make sense for small city cars with a real range of 150 kilometers. Short-distance road freight transport would likely continue using fossil fuels, while rail transport would be strengthened. Natural gas prices would rise significantly.

Who will be left without a car?

The conclusion hovering over the discussion is that private cars will become a privilege. If only eight million electric cars can be produced annually, and combustion engine production falls, access to automobiles will be restricted. The value of lithium will rise exponentially, and only wealthy people will own private cars. Some ironically note that the green economy is the new classism. Cities are no longer like post-war Tokyo, where a motorcycle sufficed for delivering noodles and transporting families. Distances are large, and parking spaces, even for bikes and motorcycles, are limited. How will beer, bread, or milk manufacturers deliver orders? High-tonnage electric trucks are being tested with little or no success.

Meanwhile, the European industry warns that meeting 2030 emission targets is unfeasible. In 2019, diesel vehicle manufacturing records were broken in the United States, which is moving against the European Union's direction. The energy transition is not a straight path. It is a race with obstacles, and some obstacles are geological. The question is not whether there will be electric cars, but how many, at what price, and for whom. Is the legislator prepared to answer that?