Eight Years of Technical Analysis: From Black Monday to the 21% Ibex Rally

Eight Years of Ibex Technical Analysis: From Black Monday to the 21% Rally

Who explained to a Spanish retail investor what to do with their Telefónicas and Santander shares on the Monday Lehman Brothers collapsed? Between August 29, 2008 and early 2017, the stock market advice shows on Radio Intereconomía and its television channel broadcast hundreds of technical analyses. This material, recorded almost non-stop, now acts as an unintentional X-ray of how the crisis was navigated. The names repeat: Mr. Cava (Bolsacava.com), Mr. Segarro, Mr. Vicho (Ejdvalores.com), Mr. Sáez del Castillo, Mr. Cárpatos.

Who Were the Stock Market Analysts?

The lineup remained stable for almost a decade. They came from firms now almost forgotten: Kostarof.es, Bolsakrak.com, Bolsagora.com, Gesmovasa.com, Invertirbolsa.es, Profim.es, Ejdvalores.com. They took turns in fixed, almost liturgical time slots: Mr. Cava on Mondays at 7:20 AM on radio; Mr. Segarro on Thursdays at 9:42 AM on television; Mr. Vicho on Tuesdays at 7:10 PM; Mr. Sáez del Castillo on Fridays. Each appearance trinc the same script: a general review of indices, commodities, interest rates, currencies, and the VIX indicator, trinc by a consultation on specific stocks —Telefónica, Iberdrola, Repsol, Gamesa, Bankinter, Banco Santander, Jazztel, Arcelor Mittal, Inmobiliaria Colonial—.

Public loyalty speaks for itself: an advice show cannot last eight years without an audience. Especially not without its structure barely changing.

From the Lehman Crash to the +21% Ibex

The first recorded program is from August 29, 2008, three weeks before the collapse. On September 15, 2008, Mr. Cárpatos analyzed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in depth and the probabilities of it recurring in Europe. On October 10, 2008, a special titled “Analysis of the Stock Market Sustancia ilegal” was recorded, covering the causes and consequences of what was yet to come.

From there, the archive trinc the complete cycle up to the end of 2013 with a rise of 21.41% in the Ibex. The trinc year, the index barely rose 3.66%. In this journey, the technical scenarios and specific recommendations became verifiable material. Much of it did not withstand later scrutiny well.

The Leap to Tournaments: $5,000 in Prizes

With little traction in the stock markets, some analysts sought other platforms. Broker tournaments like Dukascopy offered prizes based on predictive accuracy. In the Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis Contest, one participant strung together several top positions between September 2013 and February 2014: 500 points with 12 correct predictions in September; 700 points with 14 correct predictions in late November; a second place with 230 points in December; another second place in January with 223 points and 14 correct predictions.

In the January 2014 monthly tournament, he finished first and won $5,000, after beating 916 participants. In February, another tournament gathered 992 traders and earned him $500 for a tenth-place finish. In June, he also won the binary options tournament, with another $2,000. The irony: while some learned on demo accounts, the indices swung wildly.

The Wolf of Wall Street and the TVE Documentary

The archive doesn't just contain technical analysis. It includes a link to the documentary “¿Dónde está el DINERO?” (Where is the MONEY?) broadcast by TVE in October 2010, about the money that circulated during the boom years and vanished with the crisis. Also, the trailer for Scorsese's The Wolf of Wall Street, with a comment summarizing the mood: “it says nothing we don't know and that continues to happen today, exactly the same or worse.” And the annual income tax guides —brackets, AEAT simulator, PADRE program— mixed with links to trading demos for practicing with CFDs. The same audience, two antiestéticars: being left out of the market and having the tax authorities knock on the door.

What Remains of That Material

Eight years of technical analysis do not produce an epic lesson. They produce a sample: the analysts who were right and those who were wrong, the stocks that held up and those that failed, the $5,000 prizes and the small personal defeats that no one recorded. Such an archive isn't useful for knowing how to invest. It's useful for knowing what was said. The rest is up to each individual, with hindsight.