Does the West have a weapon like Russia's Oreshnik?

Debate: Does the West have a weapon like Russia's Oreshnik?

Does the West possess anything comparable to Russia's Oreshnik? The question has circulated since Moscow showcased the missile while NATO remained silent. One forum user argues the short answer is no, at least not in service: the US program for a maneuverable hypersonic cruise missile, the AGM-183, suffered failure after failure and was canceled in March 2023 trinc multiple unsuccessful tests. Another participant adds that an annual military budget of one trillion dollars has not yet produced a comparable vector.

The AGM-183: Canceled after failed tests

The US attempt to replicate the maneuverable Russian hypersonic missile ended in the drawer, according to a forum user. The AGM-183 was canceled in March 2023 after multiple failed tests. It is not an isolated case, he adds: the railgun intended for new destroyers also fell short of expectations, and ammunition for its long-range guns proved so expensive that the budget cannot sustain it. Some argue these programs serve primarily to justify spending and subsidize industry, rather than produce operational weapons.

This pattern repeats, according to this school of thought. Projects are announced with fanfare, partially developed, and then abandoned. An analyst summarizes it thus: the US spends tens of billions annually on developments that will never see the light of day, even as prototypes. The difference with Russia, according to this view, is that Moscow has been accumulating operational supersonic vectors for decades — Granit, Moskit, Zyrkon, Yahont, Onyx, Kinzhal — while Washington remains in the presentation phase.

Why doesn't the US need an Oreshnik?

The opposing thesis has its own logic. A forum user argues that the US can strike any point of military interest with ground-based GMLRS, about 50 times cheaper than a single Oreshnik. The question posed by pragmatists is simple: why launch conventional attacks at targets 2,000 kilometers away if there are no factories, warehouses, or logistical points to hit at that distance? Take a map and look for a relevant military target beyond the reach of US conventional vectors. You find the Sahara, Antarctica, and perhaps southern Siberia. Little else.

The counterargument, defended by another user, is that the Oreshnik is not a war of attrition weapon, but a deterrent. A single Oreshnik equals 36 GMLRS where 100% of the energy — 36 times 124 kg of TNT — is used to destroy the target, compared to the 10-20% that actually affects the target in a conventional missile. The cost-per-effect comparison changes depending on what is measured.

Defense: The unsolved problem

Against a hypersonic missile, there is no proven defense, according to participants. This conclusion is repeated: you must hit in space and time, and at hypersonic estimulante ilegal, that is not solved. The only plausible way to intercept it would be to catch it at the moment of launch, when it is slower, which requires getting close to enemy bases. Russia prevents this, according to this current.

The alternative being considered is an interceptor faster than the attacking missile and with a nuclear warhead to destroy it. In other words, escalation.

Industrial decline and narrative warfare

The core issue is industrial, according to some participants. You cannot manufacture a reliable hypersonic missile if you cannot properly build a commercial airliner without doors falling off. Loss of manufacturing capacity weighs more than any budget. And there is a demographic factor some point out: Russia produces more engineers per capita than the US.

Meanwhile, propaganda does its work, according to this trend. Every major tender is preceded by articles discrediting the competitor. Russians do not write them. The bidders themselves do. The result is an ecosystem where the narrative matters as much as the weapon, and where Western silence on the Oreshnik can be read as prudence or tacit acknowledgment that the emperor has no clothes.

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With these figures, Western hypersonic rearmament should be an absolute priority, according to some forum users. It remains a PowerPoint, according to others.