CIS poll: PSOE leads with 34%, Sumar hits historic low

CIS poll: PSOE leads with 34%, Sumar hits historic low

Can you win an election with a third of the vote but lose the street? The October barometer from Spain's Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) places the PSOE as the leading force with 34% of the vote, one point higher than in September, while the PP sits second at 31.5%, narrowing the gap between them to 2.5 points. The survey, conducted by the body headed by José Félix Tezanos, depicts a near-tie where the two main parties split nearly two-thirds of the support, leaving the rest bleeding votes.

The CIS data arrives as the economy becomes the central battleground. Economic crisis worries 33.8% of respondents, ahead of healthcare (20.9%) and housing (17.7%). In other words, voters express concern about their wallets yet maintain their voting intention for the governing party. This apparent contradiction is the core issue.

What the October CIS barometer says

The poll grants the PSOE 34% voting intention, up one point from the 33% recorded in September. The PP rises from 28.5% to 31.5%, allowing it to cut the distance from the socialists by 2.5 points. Vox remains the third force with 11.8%, though it loses 1.3 points compared to the previous month, when it stood at 13.1%. Sumar falls to 6.3%, its lowest figure since its creation, after registering 7.8% in September. Podemos also declines, from 3.6% to 3.3%. And Alvise Pérez’s party, Se Acabó La Fiesta, drops 1.2 points, moving from 2.9% to 1.7%.

In leader ratings, Pedro Sánchez continues in first place with 24.3%, far ahead of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who scores 13.3%. Among ministers, Margarita Robles is the best-rated at 5.09%, while Óscar Puente fares worst at 3.62%.

The unexplained contradiction: more social spending, fewer votes for alternative left

Some analysis argues that the PSOE holds on because it has maintained purchasing power for civil servants and pensioners, raised the minimum wage, made public transport free or nearly so, approved a cultural voucher, and launched record public employment calls. The list is long and the argument has logic: if voters feel the money in their pockets, other issues matter less. It is the thesis that cash rules.

Counter-arguments weigh heavily: that same voter is worried about economic crisis, healthcare, and housing, and the barometer measures resignation rather than enthusiasm. Some claim that the CIS is not a prediction but a mobilization tool: it inflates the governing party to keep the left awake and lets small parties fall to concentrate useful votes. This hypothesis cannot be verified with CIS data itself, but it pervades much of public discourse.

The fact is that Sumar and Podemos deflate while the PSOE rises. And Vox and Se Acabó La Fiesta also lose steam while the PP gains. The movement is symmetrical: small parties on both flanks cede ground to the two big ones. If this trend confirms, the Spanish political system moves toward imperfect bipartisanship with two dominant formations and a constellation of increasingly weak partners.

The ghost of fraud and distrust in the system

The conversation about the CIS cannot be understood without distrust in the count. Some analyses argue the system is illegitimate at root and that 34% is not winning. Others focus on postal votes and lack of public records, demanding results be published table-by-table on election night. The shadow of Indra, the company managing the count, looms over these suspicions, although none have translated into formal challenges to results.

For critics, Tezanos’s CIS is more a propaganda apparatus than a survey. For defenders, it is an instrument measuring population mood with standard methodology. What no one disputes is that the barometer has become a primary political object: each month upon publication, debate focuses less on what it says than on who says it.

What happens to seats if 34% is confirmed

34% of votes does not guarantee an absolute majority. In Spain’s electoral system, territorial distribution of support decides more than global percentage. A party can win popular vote yet remain far from the 176 seats needed. And a party can come second yet secure a majority with suitable partners. That is the scenario drawn by the CIS: a first-place PSOE, a closing PP, and a fragmented parliament where small partners, despite losing votes, still hold the key.

The paradox is that Sumar and Podemos fall, Vox and Se Acabó La Fiesta fall, yet neither disappears from the map. Small parties lose percentage but retain blocking capacity. And that, in a tight parliament, is worth more than one point of voting intention.

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With these numbers, the PSOE would win the elections and the PP would lose them. But 34% is not a majority; it is a third. Governing with a third, in a parliament where no one has half, is what we have seen for years. Let everyone draw their own conclusions.