China's ternary computing myth debunked: ASML unaffected

China, the ternary system, and the myth of the machine meant to break Bitcoin

In March 2024, a rumor circulated in certain circles: China had achieved a functional ternary computing system which, according to its proponents, would turn ASML’s lithography machines into scrap metal and, incidentally, break Bitcoin. The evidence, however, was as solid as a house of cards: ASML stock barely moved 0.43% while discussions heated up.

The numbers don't add up

The rumor claimed that a fridge-sized machine reached a hash rate of 120 EH/s, enough to surpass the Bitcoin network (estimated at 500 EH/s). But the figures didn’t fit: if the machine existed, it would consume enormous power and generate heat impossible to dissipate. Furthermore, ASML reported a negligible drop on the stock market, indicating institutional investors did not believe it.

What is the ternary system really?

Ternary computing uses three states (0, 1, 2) instead of two. It is not a new idea: the Soviet Union developed prototypes in the 70s. But it never prospered due to greater complexity and lower energy efficiency compared to binary. Any significant advance would require a revolution in hardware and software, not just a simple change of base.

The context of the tech war

While the hoax spread, it became known that China had authorized the purchase of 400,000 Nvidia H200 chips, a sign of technological dependence rather than self-sufficiency. The real race is not in exotic systems, but in scaling traditional lithography and overcoming sanctions.

Conclusion: smoke or reality?

Next time you read that China has made the definitive quantum (or ternary) leap, check ASML’s share price. If it hasn’t moved, it’s probably smoke. And if it has, make sure it isn’t for another reason.

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