China Sells 7M EVs, But Electric Fleet Remains at 5%

China sells 7 million EVs while the existing fleet remains largely unchanged

The red line on the graph doesn't lie: China will surpass 7 million pure electric cars sold this year, and current trends suggest it could approach 8 million. This figure has become the main argument for those claiming internal combustion engines are nearing their end. The problem arises when putting the data in context: out of a Chinese vehicle fleet of approximately 400 million units, electric and plug-in hybrids in circulation barely exceed 20 million. That is just 5% of the total, and if we look only at passenger cars, the proportion drops to half.

The discussion, which starts with euphoric messages about China's transition, quickly shifts to the usual debate: whether the electric vehicle is a revolution or an industrial bubble sustained by public money.

How many electric cars are actually sold in China?

The opening statistic is striking: more than 20% of new car sales in China are already pure electric, and adding plug-in hybrids pushes the market share above 50%. In 2023, the country imported 11.3 million barrels of crude oil per day; in 2024, that figure dropped to 11.1 million. Oil consumption has stagnated while coal use falls, leading electrification advocates to see proof that the model works.

However, critics point out that consumption isn't dropping due to EVs, but because the Chinese economy is growing slower. With more Chinese citizens buying their first car, oil demand should rise. It hasn't. For now, this is the strongest support for the official narrative.

China's vehicle fleet deflates the hype

Here comes the counterargument. If there are around 400 million vehicles circulating in China and only 20 million are electric or plug-in hybrids, the real weight of new mobility is just 5%. Isolating passenger car data makes the number even lower. Skeptics conclude simply: high sales volume does not equal fleet transformation, and at this rate, it would take decades for EVs to become dominant.

This is compounded by the second-hand market. Nearly 100% of used car transactions in China still involve combustion engines. Buyers of new vehicles can afford an EV; buyers of used ones cannot. And that market is enormous.

Why Chinese EVs cost €13,000 while they reach €40,000 in Spain

Price is the other major battleground. In China, models sell for the equivalent of €13,000; the same car arrives in Spain priced around €40,000. This difference isn't arbitrary commercial policy: it reflects an internal price war in China, where manufacturers liquidate stock to avoid warehousing costs, combined with tariffs the European Union applies to Chinese production.

The result is paradoxical. The country producing the world's cheapest EVs sells them abroad at prices that make them less competitive. Meanwhile, in Spain, where most trips are urban and fuel consumption spikes in cities, buyers still focus on entry price rather than ten-year savings.

The battery war: warranties, degradation, and replacement

Manufacturers cover batteries between 160,000 and 240,000 kilometers, a distance few drivers reach during a car's lifespan. The argument is reasonable: if the battery lasts longer than average usage, antiestéticar of replacement is unfounded. The counterargument holds too: underbody damage can force a full pack replacement, leading to repair bills of tens of thousands of euros for a car still being paid off.

The charging debate trinc the same pattern. Charging points are multiplying, but many are private and don't equate to a gas station, which fills a tank in three minutes. The response is that a plug can be installed in any parking spot, whereas a gas station requires construction, permits, and underground tanks. Both statements are true, yet neither settles the discussion.

The energy argument: charging millions of cars simultaneously

The most technical objection concerns the grid. A winter scenario involving electric heating, induction cooking, and millions of cars plugging in upon arrival home demands generation and distribution capacity that doesn't exist today. Aggressive calculations cite 230 kWh batteries to achieve 1,500 kilometers of range, and 1,400 kWh chargers to fill them in ten minutes: essentially one wind turbine per fast-charging point.

Defenders argue technology advances faster than infrastructure and that cars with 1,000 or 1,500 kilometers of range will arrive. When they do, the problem will shift. Meanwhile, the Spanish electricity system has shown fragility in recent episodes, which doesn't help sell the transition.

Latin America, the refuge for combustion engines

The latest twist in the debate is geographic. While Europe imposes anti-pollution regulations that raise new car prices, Latin America, Africa, and much of Asia maintain lax standards. Manufacturers like Volkswagen, Renault, or Stellantis have plants there producing combustion models not sold in Europe, turning these markets into their lifeline when the Old Continent tightens rules.

The unanswered question is whether EVs will reach these markets through price or obligation. Optimists say yes, driven by Chinese production. Pessimists recall that without forcing regulations, wallet preferences rule. And globally, most wallets still prefer gasoline.