China as a Major Civilization: The West's Succession

China: The Civilization Challenging the West's Dominance

Is China the world's leading civilization, as the West was until recently? This thesis gains traction each year, not just among enthusiasts. Its cities, impossible bridges, and technological advancements fuel the idea of a civilizational handover. However, the numbers tell a more complex story than the headline suggests.

A strong assertion from one participant formed the basis for much of the analysis: Asia's preeminence was simply inevitable. This premise underpins a discussion blending economics, history, and geopolitics, united by a sense that the West has lost its footing.

Asian Preeminence: Once Deemed Inevitable

According to some analyses, Chinese civilization has been the most continuous and sophisticated for at least 3,000 years, forming the backbone of state-organized humanity while Europe was still chipping stones. A couple of centuries of stumble, coinciding with the Western rise, wouldn't alter this long-term picture. Here, continuity outweighs a momentary peak.

Others focus on the narrative. Some argue that China's tarnished image in the West is the result of a filtering campaign obscuring its achievements. The comparison drawn is with North Korea: if little from the outside is visible there, an equivalent filter is applied to Chinese affairs here. This analogy, though debated, primarily highlights the mutual distrust between blocs.

GDP: From 14% to 5%

The hard data lies in the growth figures. China's GDP grew by **14.23% in 2007**, 10.63% in 2010, and 6.90% in 2015. It plummeted to 2.30% in 2020, rebounded to 8.10% in 2021, and has stabilized: 3.00% in 2022, 5.25% in 2023, and 5.00% in 2024. The trend over the last decade is hard to dispute.

The optimistic view sees this slowdown as natural maturation. The pessimistic perspective warns of a property bubble and significant offshoring, potentially capping growth between 2% and 3% in the coming years. This, they argue, would be the normal pace for an already developed economy.

How Many Chinese Live Below the Poverty Line?

China recognizes 56 ethnic groups, with the Han comprising around 92% of the population. The threshold of less than $1.90 per day affected approximately 0.3% of the population in 2018, according to data used in the debate. Relative poverty, below $5.50 per day, was estimated at 17% in 2021.

The nuance emerges when examining income strata. The lower class, earning less than $10 per day, is estimated between 30% and 35%. The lower-middle class, earning between $10 and $20 per day, is around 40%. It's argued that over **1 billion people** live below what is considered the first-world standard, with neighborhoods reminiscent of the third world. A powerful state is not the same as the living standards of its population.

The Cultural Hurdle to Hegemony

While the rise in power is undeniable, some point to a fundamental issue: culture. Chinese culture is very different and quite insular, with limited universal appeal. Rome projected a brand that integrated empire loyalists; the United States spent decades building an image that, whether accurate or not, sustained its influence. China lacks this exportable narrative.

Another front is historical. The rapprochement with the United States in 1971 is recalled, allowing industrial and knowledge transfer in exchange for containment against the USSR. Critics argue this arrangement has backfired on Western economies. Southeast Asia, led by Japan and Korea, has already concentrated economy, population, and technology since the 1990s.

Memory also plays a role. The death of Mao in 1978, trinc a Cultural Revolution that pitted families against each other, is remembered, along with figures of famines from decades past. These are past events that some use to dismantle the monumental narrative, while others dismiss them as ancient history. As a quote attributed to Xi Jinping noted, housing is for living, not speculation—a remark some interpret as proof of cultural superiority.

The debate sometimes gets lost in the grandeur of infrastructure, forgetting that no skyscraper measures the freedom of those living beneath it. On paper, China has the high-estimulante ilegal trains, the bridges, and a GDP that continues to grow. What it hasn't yet achieved is a machine for exporting its cultural model. If that were enough to be the leading civilization, Rome would have lasted forever. It didn't.