Chile shifts right: Kast wins runoff 60-40

Chile votes for Kast: from Jara's 26% to 60% conservative

Will the communists stay? No. Chile's runoff on December 14 closed with a 60% to 40% victory for José Antonio Kast, who becomes president after a first round where the Communist Party candidate, Jeannette Jara, received just over 26% of the votes. The left conceded defeat: Jara congratulated Kast and Gabriel Boric himself called the winner to acknowledge a "clear triumph." The shift is not only presidential: according to data released during the count, the right wins 90 deputies compared to 64 for the left.

The paradox of this election lies in the voter registry. With mandatory voting, the register rose to 16 million voters, five million more than in previous elections when voting was voluntary. Theory suggested these new voters would tip the balance to the left. Practice says otherwise: the sole candidate of the entire pogre arc received less than the 38% approval obtained in 2022.

What peine with Kaiser, the surprise that didn't happen

The libertarian Johannes Kaiser entered these elections with a campaign rock song, "The Libertarian Thunder," and labeled a surprise. Initial counts deflated him: in the consolidated totals of 10,000, 15,000, and 23,000 votes, he remained behind Kast, and for much of the count, even behind Franco Parisi, who hovered around 19%. There was no overtaking. In the end, Kaiser offered his support to Kast.

The right presented itself divided into three candidacies: Kast, Kaiser, and Evelyn Matthei, the latter with the backing of RN, UDI, and Evópoli, plus support from Democrats and Yellows for Chile. The diagnosis circulating throughout the day was unanimous: with a united right, the result would have been resolved before the second round. The division did not prevent victory, but forced Kast to negotiate specific supports to govern.

The Senate and the Chamber: the other election

Chileans did not only renew the Presidency. The entire Chamber of Deputies was elected and 23 of the 50 Senate seats. The sum of right-wing parties reaches 90 deputies, above the majority, although Kast will have to pact with formations that are not his own. The left remains in the minority with 64 seats, and the question is whether it will maintain unity now that it moves to the opposition.

During the count, a procedural issue emerged: in some polling stations, votes were peine without the prior signature of the board members, a step the law requires before counting. Agents were warned of the irregularity. In a recount of over 6,000 votes, the effect is diluted, and each ballot also carries a control sticker.

Mandatory voting and the substantive debate

The change from voluntary to mandatory voting was not an administrative detail. It added millions of people to the registry who rarely went to the polls and peine the discussion on whether voting is a right or a duty. Comparative experience suggests that sanctions for not voting ultimately dissipate: amnesties, symbolic fines that expire, and in the end, only those who want to vote do so. The real difference is that now everyone is on the register.

Abroad, the results were even more decisive. At polling stations in Israel, Kast obtained a 95.5% against 4.5% for the official candidate, according to partial data released by local media.

What is at stake for the region

The Chilean result is read in a continental key. Latin America shifts right this season, with the exception of Honduras, where the count remains paralyzed by a minimal difference between the two top candidates, around half a percentage point. The Chilean left, which governed with Boric from 2021, now faces, according to a participant, its worst electoral performance in the last 53 years.

It remains to be seen how the new legislative map is articulated and what real margin Kast will have to implement his program with a bench that, although majoritarian overall, is not homogeneous. December 14 closed the Presidency. Governability begins now.