Cheap drones and missiles are burying tanks and warships in Ukraine

How drones have made tanks obsolete in the war in Ukraine

In late March 2022, barely 24 days after the Russian invasion, an analysis on a military forum already pointed to what is now a widely accepted truth: tanks, aircraft and crewed ships have lost their reign. The war in Ukraine has become the laboratory where drones and cheap missiles have shown they can destroy multi-million-euro armored vehicles with insulting ease. The sinking of the Moskva cruiser in April 2022, hit by two anti-ship missiles, was only the warning. Since then, images of Russian tanks charred by FPV drones or Javelin missiles have gone viral, and the debate over the obsolescence of traditional weaponry has moved from theory to reality.

The economics of destruction: 500-euro drones against 4-million-euro tanks

The key argument emerging from the analysis is the cost asymmetry. An FPV drone, built with off-the-shelf commercial components, can cost just a few hundred euros. A Javelin anti-tank missile runs around 80,000 dollars. Against them, a Russian T-72 tank costs close to 2 million, and a Leopard 2 exceeds 5 million. The exchange ratio is brutal: even if several drones are needed to score a hit, the economic balance still favors the defender. This has forced Russia to change tactics, using missiles launched from long range (5 km or more) and turning to Iranian Shahed (Geran) drones as saturation munitions. Civilian industrial production offers a scalability that the traditional military industry cannot match, solving manufacturing bottlenecks.

From the battlefield to the sea: the Moskva and the end of the surface fleet

The sinking of the Moskva was no accident. It showed that even a flagship with anti-air defenses is vulnerable to anti-ship missiles launched from land. The incident confirmed what many suspected: large surface warships have become high-risk assets in a conflict with coastal attack capability. Meanwhile, underwater mothership drones, capable of launching swarms of microdrones, and strategic submarines are emerging as the new hard-to-intercept platforms. Naval warfare is shifting toward invisibility and saturation.

But nothing is written yet: countermeasures and urban warfare

However, the burial of the tank is not unanimous. Part of the analysis points out that drones are vulnerable to electronic warfare and adapted air defense systems. The key lies in developing countermeasures: laser cannons, frequency jammers, and decentralized C4I systems to disable enemy drones. Moreover, occupying cities still requires infantry and armored support vehicles. As seen in Mariupol and Bakhmut, leveling a city with artillery and missiles is possible, but occupying it demands boots on the ground. The tank is not dead; its role has been reduced to very specific scenarios, and its survival depends on integration with anti-drone defenses.

The war in Ukraine is writing a new manual of conflict, where the low cost and mass production of plastic drones are redefining military superiority. The consensus, even in outlets like El País, is that crewed vehicles have become obsolete against cheap drones. But the last word will belong to countermeasures, and humans are still needed to set foot in the cities. The seismic turning point is here, but its outcome is not yet settled.