Ceuta: Spain's strategy of inaction and its political costs

The Ceuta crisis: more than a month of inaction and a political calculation

More than a month after the mass crossing into Ceuta, the Spanish government's response remains the same: wait. Moncloa, the prime minister's office, ruled out the state of emergency that, by its own calculations, would have removed the intruders within days. The question is whether that paralysis is incompetence or strategy.

The diversion hypothesis

The most widespread hypothesis in the analyses is that the crisis has become a tool for diverting attention. While Ceuta burns, the public agenda moves away from the corruption cases implicating the prime minister's circle. The strategy of letting the conflict fester has a cost, but also a benefit: keeping the focus away from the courts.

Some argue the goal is to polarize until the opposition makes a mistake, so the government can present itself as the only force capable of stopping the far right. Others, more skeptical, believe the prime minister simply doesn't care, that he knows these are his last holidays as head of the executive and has decided to enjoy them in style.

The Canary Islands precedent

While thousands are mentioned in Ceuta, the Canary Islands have managed 40,000 arrivals in 2024 with hardly any media coverage. The difference is that there, transfers are carried out gradually and away from the cameras. In Ceuta, the concentration is larger and the pressure more visible. The question is whether the inaction is a deliberate decision or simply the application of the same old policy: let the wave pass.

The political cost of paralysis

With general elections scheduled for 2027, time is on the government's side. Each week that passes without a solution, the crisis fades into the news noise. But there is a cost too: the perception of abandonment in the autonomous city could translate into lost votes, even among sympathetic voters. The announced appearance on 9 September will be the prime minister's first chance to explain what he has done for more than a month.

Meanwhile, the government has brought in Fernando Simón, director of the Centre for Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies, to join the health risk control operation. The measure, met with irony in some analyses, suggests that concern for public health has come too late: with more than a month's delay, the risks of tuberculosis or other diseases have already had time to spread.

The open question is whether inaction has a limit. With his appearance before Congress, the prime minister will have to justify a management that, to date, has solved nothing. The answer, most likely, will be the same as so far: let the wave pass.