Ceuta march on the 15th: provocation or flop?
A migrant march is called for Ceuta on the 15th: 70,000 people, a major Civil Guard deployment and a Morocco with its image in Brussels at stake.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The 15th in Ceuta: between the migrant call and the clash with Segarro
The most revealing detail about the march announced for the 15th in Ceuta is not the figure, 70,000 people, but the fact that it has been announced far and wide. In operations like this, success usually depends on the element of surprise. If advance notice is given, there is a good chance everything will fizzle out. Even so, the Spanish security deployment is already underway.
A warning that is far too public
The paradox is that the announcement has come through megaphones. Those familiar with how these calls work point out that when a real action is being planned, it is not announced so far in advance. Gila's famous call to his enemy to tell him he was not going to come and hit him becomes the recurring metaphor: if it is announced, it probably will not happen.
Segarro's gamble
The other board is Rabat. The country that wants to sell itself as the new Dubai to international investors has its image on the line. A harsh crackdown on a migrant march would cost it dearly in Brussels; showing cooperation, on the other hand, earns it political capital. That is why some analyses suggest the 15th will be an exercise in posturing on both sides: Spain hardens its rhetoric for the EU, Segarro holds back for show.
Clash scenarios
The scenario of an attempted border storming that fails is the one running through the debate: with no five-star hotels for everyone, camps on the beach and incidents in supermarkets, the promised paradise loses its shine. But the very fact that there has already been trouble in the area leaves the door open to greater disorder.
A flash in the pan or the prologue to something bigger? The 15th is just around the corner, and Spain has made its moves. We shall see.
The most revealing detail about the march announced for the 15th in Ceuta is not the figure, 70,000 people, but the fact that it has been announced far and wide. In operations like this, success usually depends on the element of surprise. If advance notice is given, there is a good chance everything will fizzle out. Even so, the Spanish security deployment is already underway.
A warning that is far too public
The paradox is that the announcement has come through megaphones. Those familiar with how these calls work point out that when a real action is being planned, it is not announced so far in advance. Gila's famous call to his enemy to tell him he was not going to come and hit him becomes the recurring metaphor: if it is announced, it probably will not happen.
Segarro's gamble
The other board is Rabat. The country that wants to sell itself as the new Dubai to international investors has its image on the line. A harsh crackdown on a migrant march would cost it dearly in Brussels; showing cooperation, on the other hand, earns it political capital. That is why some analyses suggest the 15th will be an exercise in posturing on both sides: Spain hardens its rhetoric for the EU, Segarro holds back for show.
Clash scenarios
The scenario of an attempted border storming that fails is the one running through the debate: with no five-star hotels for everyone, camps on the beach and incidents in supermarkets, the promised paradise loses its shine. But the very fact that there has already been trouble in the area leaves the door open to greater disorder.
A flash in the pan or the prologue to something bigger? The 15th is just around the corner, and Spain has made its moves. We shall see.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (50 replies).
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