Bulgarians living in Spain drop from 176,000 to 110,000

Bulgaria is no longer the periphery: its workers are heading home

In 2012, nearly 900,000 Romanians lived in Spain. By 2025, only about 609,000 remain. The Bulgarian community has shrunk from 176,000 to 110,000 people. Behind those figures there is no expulsion order: there is a calculator, and it has changed sign. The two countries that for two decades supplied Spanish construction with bricklayers, plumbers and electricians have become, for their own people, a more profitable destination than the one that took them in.

Spain's INE (national statistics institute) has been measuring the phenomenon for years and it already has a name: return migration. While Spain keeps receiving foreign population, the longest-established European communities are leaving. No drama, no speeches, no repatriation subsidy.

Wage convergence that ends the journey

Romania and Bulgaria have been growing fast within the European Union for fifteen years, and according to the analysis circulating in the thread, the wage gap that brought them here has all but closed. In GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power, Romania is breathing down Spain's neck and even overtakes it on some indicators; Bulgaria has just joined the euro. The same job pays about the same. Housing costs a fraction.

Housing is the second driver of the return. Spanish property prices have swallowed any payroll differential, and back home there are prices that sound like a joke here. With those numbers, the alucinación no longer pays off even if gross pay is higher. What was once a bet on the future has become a sum that comes out negative.

The gap they leave in construction

Spain is losing experienced workers in sectors already short of labour: construction, agriculture and skilled trades such as bricklaying, plumbing and electrical work. The argument is that the replacement workforce does not arrive with the same qualifications, and that this is why developers fight over a good installer. Twenty years of on-site experience cannot be improvised.

Add a demographic detail that unsettles: last year, according to a calculation circulating in the thread, 145,669 births were registered in Spain. The generational handover is not guaranteed from within, and the external one is changing profile and trade.

Bulgaria in the euro: the haven gets expensive too

The enthusiasm comes with fine print. Bulgaria has just joined the euro, and with the single currency comes capital, including money looking for property. The argument is that this inflow is driving up housing prices in Sofia and that inflation is already around 5%. Under the lev there was a valve — devaluation — that absorbed the adjustment; now the blow lands in full on the pocket of tenants and late buyers.

And then there is demographics, which admits no make-up. Bulgaria went from 8,986,636 inhabitants in 1988 to 6,423,207 in 2025, and keeps falling. Emigration, rock-bottom birth rates and a diaspora scattered across half of Europe. The country welcoming its children back is emptying out too.

At the same time, some are looking East from the other side of the border: Spanish retirees moving their residence to countries where housing and food are far cheaper, and where a modest pension stretches further than on the Mediterranean coast.

The awkward question remains. If the income gap has closed and housing costs a fraction, why haven't half of those who left already returned? Whoever has that answer gets the migration blueprint of the next decade for free.