Brussels Admits Spain Manipulated Unemployment Data
The EU commissioner acknowledges Spain manipulated unemployment figures, revealing 1.1 million hidden jobless, soaring costs, and fake permanent contracts.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The EU commissioner admits what many suspected: unemployment data in Spain has been manipulated
Standard image at any SEPE office: a worker registers as unemployed, but does not appear in official jobless figures. This is no statistical error: it results from a methodology that systematically excludes millions of people. And now, even Brussels admits it.
The methodology hiding real unemployment
According to collected data, the Spanish government uses a 'registered jobless' criterion that excludes numerous groups: those seeking first employment, students, part-time workers, trainees, agricultural subsidy recipients, and many others. The result is that, while the official rate hovers around 12%, real unemployment approaches 20%.
An analysis by economist Marc Vidal places 870,000 people who have gone months without income or work and are not counted as jobless. If included, the real rate would be 15.6%. Other estimates put hidden jobless at 1.1 million, with total job seekers exceeding 4.3 million, pre-pandemic levels.
Benefits spending: an indicator exposing the trick
If unemployment falls, benefits spending should drop. But it hasn't: in June it grew 6%, to 1,851.6 million euros, and the number of beneficiaries increased 1.5%. The contradiction is so evident that the EU commissioner has had to acknowledge the manipulation.
Additionally, Yolanda Díaz's labor reform has surged 'fake permanent contracts': 1.31 million people have permanent contracts but have signed more than one, inflating employment figures without improving real stability. Pluriemployment also distorts: 1,736,734 affiliations correspond to only 823,107 people, counting some workers up to six times.
Fraud and arrests: the dark side of the figures
The manipulation is not only statistical. In the incivil sphere, there are already 25 arrests for a million-euro fraud involving unemployment capitalization, a system allowing fraudulent benefit claims. The link between false data and economic crime is increasingly difficult to ignore.
Meanwhile, the government promises 250,000 jobs for immigrants despite official unemployment of three million. The figure alone is confusing.
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Standard image at any SEPE office: a worker registers as unemployed, but does not appear in official jobless figures. This is no statistical error: it results from a methodology that systematically excludes millions of people. And now, even Brussels admits it.
The methodology hiding real unemployment
According to collected data, the Spanish government uses a 'registered jobless' criterion that excludes numerous groups: those seeking first employment, students, part-time workers, trainees, agricultural subsidy recipients, and many others. The result is that, while the official rate hovers around 12%, real unemployment approaches 20%.
An analysis by economist Marc Vidal places 870,000 people who have gone months without income or work and are not counted as jobless. If included, the real rate would be 15.6%. Other estimates put hidden jobless at 1.1 million, with total job seekers exceeding 4.3 million, pre-pandemic levels.
Benefits spending: an indicator exposing the trick
If unemployment falls, benefits spending should drop. But it hasn't: in June it grew 6%, to 1,851.6 million euros, and the number of beneficiaries increased 1.5%. The contradiction is so evident that the EU commissioner has had to acknowledge the manipulation.
Additionally, Yolanda Díaz's labor reform has surged 'fake permanent contracts': 1.31 million people have permanent contracts but have signed more than one, inflating employment figures without improving real stability. Pluriemployment also distorts: 1,736,734 affiliations correspond to only 823,107 people, counting some workers up to six times.
Fraud and arrests: the dark side of the figures
The manipulation is not only statistical. In the incivil sphere, there are already 25 arrests for a million-euro fraud involving unemployment capitalization, a system allowing fraudulent benefit claims. The link between false data and economic crime is increasingly difficult to ignore.
Meanwhile, the government promises 250,000 jobs for immigrants despite official unemployment of three million. The figure alone is confusing.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (211 replies).
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