Bank of Spain: 37M migrants needed to sustain pensions

Bank of Spain: 37M migrants needed to sustain pensions

The Bank of Spain has indicated that Spain would need 37 million foreign workers to maintain its pension system, according to a message circulating in the debate based on information from Vozpópuli. The paradox is that external labor is needed to pay pensions for those who stay, while many educated locals leave. A calculation spreading in the discussion raises the figure to an additional 25 million over the 12 million immigrants projected for 2050 under current policies.

Why do educated young people leave Spain?

Recurring reasons in the debate include housing prices and wage gaps with other countries. One participant recounts how a telecom executive from the UAE mentioned at a fair that a Madrid engineer with an MBA was offered seven times his annual gross salary, company housing, and a five-year contract. Another claims that in Australia, the government offers a job pool for newcomers: accepting any vacancy extends residency permits, noting that four university graduates aged 25 and 26 moved there.

The cost-of-living argument appears in several interventions. Those who moved to the Netherlands count their remaining days in Spain. Someone living abroad near the beach says that even if they wanted to return, requirements and housing prices prevent it. Housing is the most cited factor: it’s not just low wages, but rent consuming salaries. Some argue the issue isn't the labor market but the predatory landlord charging exorbitant rents for apartments bought decades ago.

Profile of leavers: skilled and unencumbered

INE data from 2021 cited in the debate shows that of 380,786 registered emigrants, 304,586 were foreigners and 76,200 were Spaniards. Participants argue that those leaving hold degrees, experience, and crucially, no mortgages tying them down, citing cases of an aeronautical engineer, a chemist, and a business graduate. The pattern described is of trained individuals unable to find roles matching their qualifications or accepting poorly paid ones.

The other side involves foreign workers filling jobs Spaniards reportedly no longer want or can accept, such as greenhouses, hospitality, or construction. The debate intensifies when figures cross: an engineer leaves, and a Cuban doctor or Segarro worker arrives. The total number remains stable, but the composition changes, according to these views.

The housing trap and stagnant wages

Housing prices are blamed in several interventions. One participant describes a young couple—he in IT, she a teacher—who left Madrid for New York. Another notes New York also lacks affordable housing. In Spain, rent reportedly consumes a high percentage of income. Consequently, qualified youth cannot save, become independent, or stay; they leave instead.

Some point out the problem isn't just price but precariousness: temporary contracts, stagnant wages, and rising administrative burdens. One participant left after contributing 16 years, claiming state deductions covered ten times the public education received, which antiestéticatured classes of 100 students and furniture from 1970.

Future outlook: more pensions, fewer contributors

The Bank of Spain stated clearly, per the circulated message: without immigration, the pension system collapses. Demographic alarms aren't new but now intersect with brain drain. Leavers should fund pensions for stayers. Arrivals often fill low-skilled, low-wage roles with lower fiscal contributions, according to the debate.

With reservations, predictions suggest acceleration. Monthly gaps between local and foreign offers widen, participants say. Next year, necessary immigrant figures may rise to one million. Meanwhile, youth keep checking maps, increasingly pointing north.