Analyst predicted in 2017 that Spanish housing would keep falling
In a 2017 video, a Spanish property analyst advised against investing in housing because prices would keep falling. Eight years later, the average price has risen…
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
A property analyst predicted in 2017 that housing would keep falling: the market says otherwise
In 2017, with prices still below their 2008 peaks and interest rates negative, a well-known Spanish property analyst recorded a video recommending against investing in housing because the market would keep falling. Eight years later, the average appraised value in Spain has gone from around €1,530/m² to more than €2,000/m², according to data from the Ministry of Housing, and the INE index, which tracks actual sales, has accumulated a nominal rise of between 50% and 60%. The prediction did not come true. But the debate over why it failed — and over who could have got it right — is more alive than ever.
The video that aged badly: what the analyst said in 2017
The analyst argued back then that housing would keep falling. His main argument was demographic: the population winter, baby boomers retiring and the lack of generational replacement would create an oversupply that would sink prices. It was a thesis consistent with the 2008 bubble bursting, when the property market collapsed and nobody wanted to buy. In 2017, however, prices had been rising for three years since the low of 2013-2014. Saying they would keep falling went against the trend.
The reaction to the video, now unearthed, mixes mockery with nuance. Some argue the mistake was failing to see what was coming: a migration policy that has brought several million people into Spain, interest rates at historic lows and a money printer that never switched off. Others maintain that nobody in 2017 could have foreseen that cocktail. And a third group points out that the fault was not the analyst's, but that of anyone who listened to him.
From the "demographic winter" to the money printer: why the forecast failed
The demographic argument looked solid on paper. Birth rates were falling, the population was ageing, and the retirement of those born in the sixties and seventies was supposed to free up housing. What was left out of the equation was the effect of mass immigration: between 2017 and 2025, Spain received a wave of migration that more than offset the demographic winter. On top of that came monetary policy. With the Euribor negative and the ECB buying debt, financing costs collapsed and mortgage credit flowed again.
The result is a market in which prices have more than doubled in many areas. In Valencia, for example, according to a calculation circulating in the debate, flats that sold for under €70,000 in 2017 now start at €160,000. Ground-floor units that cost €30,000 have become €80,000. And in towns half an hour from the city, what used to cost €35,000 now goes for no less than €100,000. These figures are circulating in the debate and match official data: Valencia is one of the provinces where housing prices have risen the most in Spain.
"Half or less": the figure depends on where you look
The national average is misleading. The average appraised value went from €1,530/m² in 2017 to more than €2,000/m² in 2025, up 35-40%. The INE index, which measures actual sales, shows a nominal rise of 50-60%. If you subtract cumulative inflation — more than 20% over the period — the real increase is considerably lower. But in the city of Madrid, Málaga, the Balearics or the Mediterranean coast, prices have more than doubled in some neighbourhoods. In the rest of Spain, no.
There is a second effect the average hides: what has risen most in percentage terms is precisely the cheap end of the market. The €70,000 flat or the €30,000 ground-floor unit was what nobody wanted in 2017 and anyone with some savings could buy. Now those properties are the object of desire for investors and funds. The shortage of new builds and demographic pressure have done the rest.
The forum that got it right (or so it says)
In the debate, the self-satisfaction of those who bought in 2015, 2016 or 2017 resurfaces. "In 2016 I bought, terrified of owing the bank €165,000. If I could go back, I'd buy a much more expensive flat," one participant sums up. Another says that in 2015 he bought a new build and the developer had to buy two of the flats itself to keep the development afloat because it couldn't sell the whole block. Today that same development would be worth double.
The conclusion drawn is uncomfortable: anyone who listened to the analyst and didn't buy in 2017 has missed a historic opportunity. Anyone who bought, even out of antiestéticar, has seen their wealth multiply. And anyone who sold expecting another crash has been left out of the market. There is no single lesson, but there is a pattern: those guided by antiestéticar got it wrong; those guided by common sense did too.
The analyst's video keeps circulating as an example of a failed forecast. But the underlying question is not whether he was wrong, but whether anyone could have been right. In 2017, with negative rates and immigration knocking at the door, the answer was more obvious than it seemed. Eight years later, we still don't know whether next time will be the same.
In 2017, with prices still below their 2008 peaks and interest rates negative, a well-known Spanish property analyst recorded a video recommending against investing in housing because the market would keep falling. Eight years later, the average appraised value in Spain has gone from around €1,530/m² to more than €2,000/m², according to data from the Ministry of Housing, and the INE index, which tracks actual sales, has accumulated a nominal rise of between 50% and 60%. The prediction did not come true. But the debate over why it failed — and over who could have got it right — is more alive than ever.
The video that aged badly: what the analyst said in 2017
The analyst argued back then that housing would keep falling. His main argument was demographic: the population winter, baby boomers retiring and the lack of generational replacement would create an oversupply that would sink prices. It was a thesis consistent with the 2008 bubble bursting, when the property market collapsed and nobody wanted to buy. In 2017, however, prices had been rising for three years since the low of 2013-2014. Saying they would keep falling went against the trend.
The reaction to the video, now unearthed, mixes mockery with nuance. Some argue the mistake was failing to see what was coming: a migration policy that has brought several million people into Spain, interest rates at historic lows and a money printer that never switched off. Others maintain that nobody in 2017 could have foreseen that cocktail. And a third group points out that the fault was not the analyst's, but that of anyone who listened to him.
From the "demographic winter" to the money printer: why the forecast failed
The demographic argument looked solid on paper. Birth rates were falling, the population was ageing, and the retirement of those born in the sixties and seventies was supposed to free up housing. What was left out of the equation was the effect of mass immigration: between 2017 and 2025, Spain received a wave of migration that more than offset the demographic winter. On top of that came monetary policy. With the Euribor negative and the ECB buying debt, financing costs collapsed and mortgage credit flowed again.
The result is a market in which prices have more than doubled in many areas. In Valencia, for example, according to a calculation circulating in the debate, flats that sold for under €70,000 in 2017 now start at €160,000. Ground-floor units that cost €30,000 have become €80,000. And in towns half an hour from the city, what used to cost €35,000 now goes for no less than €100,000. These figures are circulating in the debate and match official data: Valencia is one of the provinces where housing prices have risen the most in Spain.
"Half or less": the figure depends on where you look
The national average is misleading. The average appraised value went from €1,530/m² in 2017 to more than €2,000/m² in 2025, up 35-40%. The INE index, which measures actual sales, shows a nominal rise of 50-60%. If you subtract cumulative inflation — more than 20% over the period — the real increase is considerably lower. But in the city of Madrid, Málaga, the Balearics or the Mediterranean coast, prices have more than doubled in some neighbourhoods. In the rest of Spain, no.
There is a second effect the average hides: what has risen most in percentage terms is precisely the cheap end of the market. The €70,000 flat or the €30,000 ground-floor unit was what nobody wanted in 2017 and anyone with some savings could buy. Now those properties are the object of desire for investors and funds. The shortage of new builds and demographic pressure have done the rest.
The forum that got it right (or so it says)
In the debate, the self-satisfaction of those who bought in 2015, 2016 or 2017 resurfaces. "In 2016 I bought, terrified of owing the bank €165,000. If I could go back, I'd buy a much more expensive flat," one participant sums up. Another says that in 2015 he bought a new build and the developer had to buy two of the flats itself to keep the development afloat because it couldn't sell the whole block. Today that same development would be worth double.
The conclusion drawn is uncomfortable: anyone who listened to the analyst and didn't buy in 2017 has missed a historic opportunity. Anyone who bought, even out of antiestéticar, has seen their wealth multiply. And anyone who sold expecting another crash has been left out of the market. There is no single lesson, but there is a pattern: those guided by antiestéticar got it wrong; those guided by common sense did too.
The analyst's video keeps circulating as an example of a failed forecast. But the underlying question is not whether he was wrong, but whether anyone could have been right. In 2017, with negative rates and immigration knocking at the door, the answer was more obvious than it seemed. Eight years later, we still don't know whether next time will be the same.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (15 replies).
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