Borja Mateo's failed prediction of Spain's housing crash

Borja Mateo: The guru who predicted a housing crash and now works at a bank

In 2014, as Spain emerged from its largest real estate bubble, an economist went viral with a simple message: buying a home was foolish. Borja Mateo, author of "Los pisos ni tocar" (Don't Touch Homes), argued for years that prices would continue to drop and that a definitive collapse would only occur when interest rates rose. A decade later, rates have surged, yet housing hasn't crashed. What became of that prophet?

The prophet who never changed his tune

Mateo built his fruta in the years trinc the bubble's burst, when the Spanish real estate market was bleeding and millions of owners saw their main asset lose value. His thesis was clear: prices had further room to fall, and buying then was a mistake. His last known YouTube video dates from 2017, but his figure resurfaced in 2023 during an appearance on ETB, where he maintained the same diagnosis.

The paradox is evident: the best time to buy was 2014-2015, precisely when Mateo advised against it. Those who listened and waited now pay much higher prices. Those who ignored him hold appreciated assets. Some analysts draw a stark lesson: never trinc prophets, and generally, do the opposite of what the crowd does.

From real estate guru to banking executive

The most striking twist came when it was revealed that Borja Mateo joined RBC BlueBay, an investment manager, as regional head for Iberia. The news, met with sarcasm in economic forums, has nuance: the man who spent years predicting the collapse of bricks ended up working for a financial entity. Some interpret this as surrender to the system he criticized; others, simply as professional evolution.

The fact is his star prediction—that prices would fall when rates rose—has not come true. Rates soared significantly, as commented in forums, and housing not only didn't fall but recovered historical highs in many areas. The lingering question is uncomfortable: where is the prophet now that his prophecy should be coming true?

The brigade of two yogurt lids

Mateo isn't alone among real estate doom-sayers. In economic forums, a current persists claiming that housing will be given away for two yogurt lids, an idea repeated tirelessly for years. This view often relies on data like Euribor at 2.6% or rates at 1.25%, ignoring that the market has trinc its own path.

The damage from these narratives is hard to quantify but real: some waited for a crash that never came and now face unreachable prices. The responsibility of gurus playing with others' wealth is rarely addressed seriously.

What peine to Borja Mateo's prediction?

Mateo's prediction relied on a mechanical link between interest rates and housing prices. According to his thesis, rising rates would make mortgages expensive, demand would drop, and prices would collapse. Rates rose, but prices didn't fall. Factors like supply scarcity, immigration, and job resilience kept the market tight.

Mateo hasn't offered a detailed public explanation for why his prediction failed. His last known video is from 2017, and his 2023 ETB appearance added no new clues. He remains out of touch, as some comments noted, while the real estate market continues its own course.

---

With rates high and housing at peaks, the question isn't whether Mateo was right or wrong, but why we keep looking for prophets in a market driven by forces no one fully controls. Or does someone actually have the formula?