Amateur forum poll: Vox leads and abstention tops 21,000 votes

Vox leads and abstention soars in an informal forum poll

Amid the hangover from polls ahead of Spain's 2026 general election, an amateur exercise on a forum has set out to measure what, according to its author, the media ignore: the vote of those who do not intend to set foot in a polling station. The result, with **more than 21,000 votes** accumulated for the abstention option against **Vox's 28,944**, paints a scenario that, according to the author, no CIS (Spain's official polling institute) contemplates. The poll, which is updated every 48 hours and incorporates forum sections in blocks, presents itself as an involuntary thermometer of disenchantment. And, in passing, as a settling of scores with the official narrative, always according to its promoters.

The premise is simple: if conventional polls ignore those who do not vote, here they are given their own box. And they fill it. With **an estimated 33% abstention rate** in published polls, the exercise argues that this percentage falls short. The discussion soon turned to the role of Vox, the PP and possible coalitions, but the figure hovering over everything is another one: abstention as a first-rate political actor.

Vox and abstention: the two big blocs in the poll

The provisional count places **Vox as the leading force** with 28,944 votes, closely trinc by the option of not going to the polling station, with 21,733. The PP, with 294, and the PSOE, with 406, lag far behind. The poll does not claim to represent the population as a whole, but it does reflect, in the view of its participants, a trend the parties prefer not to look at: **abstention as the leading virtual party** in broad sectors.

Some argue that this abstention is in fact a hidden vote for the PSOE, because "the trough will turn abstention into socialist votes like there's no tomorrow." Others, however, see abstention as a way of punishing the entire political class. The discussion intersects with the debate on the electoral law and the allocation of seats, but the underlying issue is different: the legitimacy of a system that governs with minority majorities.

The PP and Vox: coalition or disappear

The poll has also served to take the internal temperature of the centre-right. The most repeated conclusion is that **the PP cannot govern without Vox**, and that Vox, with its rhetoric against immigration and against the Government's policies, has become the indispensable partner. The phrase that sums up the majority feeling: "If it weren't for VOX, the PP would have sunk like a rock and lost its regional governments."

The most critical analysis of Vox comes from those who consider its foreign policy positions — described as "Zionist" — a red line. Others, however, value its parliamentary leverage. The poll does not resolve the dilemma, but it lays it bare without anaesthetic.

The abstention that never shows up in the polls

One of the most cited findings is the **lack of public data on abstention since 2023**, according to one participant. The complaint is a recurring one: the media and polling institutes do not ask about the intention not to vote, and when they do, the results are glossed over. The Lithuanian example crept into the conversation: with turnout of 53%, the resulting government was questioned by almost half the population, according to that same participant. The question is unavoidable: what legitimacy does an executive chosen by half the electorate have?

The answer that prevails in the poll is that abstention is not a vote, but it is a message. And that the parties ignore it at their own peril.

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The exercise, which began as a pastime, has become, in the view of its promoters, a small settling of scores with official polling. The numbers are not representative, but the trend is hard to ignore: **Vox and abstention split the pie** while the major parties watch from the sidelines. The next update, with new sections added, could shake up the map. Or not. But the debate over who counts and who does not remains open.