Óscar Puente says internal polls put Spain's PSOE in first place for 29-N

Óscar Puente says internal polls put Spain's PSOE in first place for 29-N

Spain's Minister of Transport and Sustainable Mobility, Óscar Puente, has claimed that internal PSOE polls place his party as the leading force in the general election on 29 November. The statement, spread via social media, has reignited the debate over the reliability of polls and how parties use them. It is no innocuous remark: it comes in the middle of the pre-campaign, with the CIS (Spain's official polling institute) in the spotlight over its statistical manoeuvring. The question hanging in the air is whether these internal polls are an analytical tool or a mobilisation weapon.

The CIS, Tezanos and the cooking of polls

The first reaction has been scepticism. Tezanos and his team at the CIS have for years been accused of cooking the data to favour the Government. Some argue that the polls published by the CIS are "cooked" and that the ones parties handle internally are a different matter. The irony has gone into overdrive: "not even high on psychedelics could anyone believe such a thing", sums up the general mood. The name of Iván Redondo, Sánchez's former chief of staff and known for his obsession with data, comes up as proof that the PSOE has good professionals. But that does not turn an internal poll into an election result.

The Senate, the overseas vote and the PP's absolute majority

Attention has quickly shifted to the Senate. A tweet from Electodatos warns that if the left runs a single joint candidacy for the Senate, the PP would lose its absolute majority in the upper house. It is a scenario some see as plausible and others dismiss as fake. The key lies in the CERA vote (Spaniards resident abroad), which traditionally favours the PP but could this time tip the balance towards the PSOE. Some joke that it is already "polled". The reality is that the Senate is decided by constituency, and a single left-wing candidacy would change the map.

The figures in play: Vox, the PP and the right's combined total

The numbers circulating are wildly different. It is said that Vox won 3,050,000 votes in the last election and has 1,700,000 guaranteed; on that basis, some calculate it cannot settle for 55 seats and would reach 70 or 80. Others forecast a ceiling for the PP of around 122 seats and 54 for Vox. A PP-Vox alliance would deliver an absolute majority by the skin of its teeth, 178 seats out of the 176 needed, according to a poll by El Español. Junts and the PNV would fall, while ERC and Bildu would strengthen. Sumar and Podemos, if they ran together, would exceed 10% of the vote. These are projections, not certainties.

The right's strategy: unity or fragmentation?

On the right flank, the debate is whether the PP and Vox should run together. Some argue the only way to oust Sánchez is unity, even in the Congress, while others refuse to vote for the PP. Vote fragmentation among options like Alvise's is seen as a risk. The rallying cry is clear: "people who want this corrupt government gone should vote PP and Vox, not stay home". The question is whether that unity would translate into seats or into a new popular front, as some joke.

The politics of antiestéticar and voter mobilisation

Beyond the numbers, what is at stake is the narrative. Part of the analysis holds that leaked internal polls aim to mobilise one's own voters and demobilise the opposition. The mention of a "popular front" and the ghost of 1936 is no coincidence. Spanish politics is once again playing on antiestéticar of the other. And meanwhile, the data still do not add up: the CIS gets it wrong, and private polls disagree. On 29-N, as always, the undecided will decide.

---

Key figures

• Vox: 3,050,000 votes in the last election, 1,700,000 guaranteed
• PP: electoral ceiling of around 122 seats
• Vox: projected 54 seats
• PP+Vox: 178 seats out of the 176 needed for an absolute majority
• Sumar and Podemos together: more than 10% of the vote