AEMET reports 28 January temperature records as Seville sees no frost

The mildest winter in Seville: 28 January records reported by AEMET

January concluded in Seville without a single frost. Not one. Car thermometers never dropped below one degree, some days reached highs of 22 degrees, and fifteen-day forecasts predicted no temperatures below zero. What began as a local impression was backed by data as the month pogre: 28 AEMET (the State Meteorological Agency) observatories broke the record for the absolute maximum temperature in January, out of a total of 832 stations across the country. The feeling of a strange winter is no longer just a feeling.

Why did Seville end January without frost?

The average climatic minimum for the Sevillian capital fluctuates between 6 and 7 degrees during winter. It is not fertile ground for frost: historical records show cold spells between November and March, with an absolute minimum near -6 degrees, but nothing forces the thermometer to bottom out every year. In previous winters, even mild ones, five to seven frost days were usually recorded. This year, zero.

Long-term statistics mitigate the surprise: in most years, the city does not freeze, and when it does, it usually happens late in the winter. Some even argue, using this season's data, that the winter is actually slightly colder than usual on average. It depends on the observatory and the specific day chosen. One of the warmest cities in continental Europe is behaving as such in January.

The cold moved north to the Meseta

Geographic contrast tells the other half of the story. In Madrid, winter has felt normal, with nights below zero and days where heavy clothing is necessary. The Meseta (the central plateau) and the north have accumulated rain, wind, and cold since October, to the point that some describe it as the coldest winter in those areas in the last five years. In the northern Meseta, where capitals have reached -15 degrees, discussing the cold feels almost offensive.

Snow, however, is the uncomfortable proof. Almost all ski slopes have closed and the snow that falls in the mountains melts within a few days. The sight of skiing in January is now more a memory than a habit, and that is also a significant data point. The last real cold spell many remember is Filomena, which now feels like a distant memory.

The records piling up in January

The trickle of records was constant. A town in the province of Seville recorded 29 degrees, three degrees above its previous historical maximum for January. The 28 records from the official network are not an isolated coincidence, but the tip of a pattern that has been brewing for weeks: highs above 20 degrees, minimums that do not drop, and successive high-pressure systems that promise to prolong the reprieve.

There were counterpoints. The extent of Arctic ice ended the season at one of its highest levels in the last two decades, and Moscow spent the winter at the average, with both colder and warmer days. The reading is simple if one does not seek headlines: the planet does not warm up uniformly, and global warming does not imply that every point on the map records a record every January. There are even popular forecasts, based on insect behavior, predicting storms of snow and cold. So far, they have not arrived.

Drought: the data that doesn't quite add up

Rain arrived, and in abundance. In Madrid, more than 400 liters fell between September 1, 2023, and January 31, 2024, a figure close to its annual average. In Seville, 85 liters were collected in a single day. And yet, those watching the countryside warn that the soil is dry and that the grass this season is not like in previous years.

The reason lies in where the water falls. In summer, Seville relies on headwater reservoirs in Granada and Jaén: it can rain as much as it wants over the capital, but as long as the reservoirs in upper Andalusia are not filled, the drought persists. One day of rain does not fill a reservoir a hundred kilometers away if it does not rain there too.

Why records are broken at airports

Part of the analysis focuses on the stations recording the data. Temperature records tend to occur at airport observatories, and some argue that Madrid compares its climate today to a very different city than in 1981: an asphalted and built-up surface that did not exist then, combined with a reference period that continues to age. With the average anchored between 1981 and 2010, any subsequent decade appears warmer due to construction, they argue.

It is the type of objection that does not deny the trend but disputes its intensity. And it has its own trap: if the heat is due to asphalt, that asphalt is still there and continues to add degrees. The controversy regarding the Seville airport is also not resolving itself. Its historical maximum was recorded in the nineties, nearly three decades ago.

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With these elements, the conclusion always gets stuck at the same point: some see proof of global warming, others see one cycle among many, and the data from a single January is not enough to settle either view. What is clear is that discussing the weather has ceased to be mere small talk. Now it is discussed with graphs, AEMET series, and calculators in hand. And even so, no one agrees.