Forum Debates Whether July Was as Hot as Claimed or Mild

The Clash Between Data and Street-Level Thermometers

Was this summer hot, or does it just seem that way? Every heatwave reopens the same debate, and this year it returns with two conflicting answers. On one hand, some claim, citing AEMET (Spain's meteorological agency), that July was warmer than average and that the heat caused a significant number of attributable deaths. On the other, several participants insist they slept under blankets, didn't use air conditioning, and saw people wearing jackets at sunset. Black and white. Neither thermometers nor personal feelings are willing to yield.

Data and perception don't have to align. And when they don't, the narrative of personal experience almost always wins. That's the crux of the matter.

Why is July Said to Be Hot When the Street Remembers It as Mild?

Because they measure different things on different scales. Official statistics average hundreds of stations and compare them to long-term series; perception is built on what peine in your neighborhood and what you remember from twenty years ago.

There are anecdotes that perfectly summarize the contradiction: someone claims they didn't use air conditioning all July, slept covered almost every night, and later read that July had been hotter than average and that people had died from the heat. The mismatch between lived experience and published reports fuels the discontent.

This contrast can't be resolved with a headline. A heatwave is declared based on thresholds and duration, not on the fleeting sensation of a pleasant afternoon. A single mild day in one town doesn't disprove a heatwave, just as a single suffocating day doesn't confirm one.

The Turning Point Set at 2015

Pinpointing the turning point is another open front. Some argue that before 2015, it was rare to exceed 36 degrees Celsius maximum in Madrid, and since then, it's rare not to exceed 39 throughout the summer.

Old memories align: summers with highs of 28 to 32 degrees, short sleeves until the October holiday (Puente de Octubre), and beach trips during the December holiday (Puente de Diciembre). It's a memory that can't be verified but is repeated with striking insistence.

Does memory lie, or do the maps lie? Probably neither. Memory is selective, and maps are cold, which is precisely what's expected of them.

Why Are Weather Forecasts Often Wrong?

Because the atmosphere isn't a closed equation. Any given episode can deviate and expose the most refined model. The complaint is old and somewhat amusing: forecasts that fail more often than a faulty shotgun.

Added to this is the underlying argument of those who maintain that the planet's temperature has changed throughout its existence, with or without industry. It's a thesis a forum user defends with no more backing than their own assertion.

The Car Thermometer as a Data Source

Among the records cited are readings taken from a car by a forum user: 45 degrees Celsius in Málaga in an air pocket, 43 degrees in Seville on a July afternoon in 2015, and usual values of 40 to 42 in the southern peninsula. These are not official network data but are cited as proof that extreme heat isn't new.

Therein lies the detail that bothers both sides. If extreme heat already existed, why is it presented every summer as unprecedented? And if it has truly become more extreme, why do so many insist this one was mild?

With these ingredients, the only firm conclusion is the usual one: the climate is right, and memory is a poor measurement tool. The problem is that it's the only one we have when we step outside.