Abascal’s Tone Could Mobilize Left Again, Echoing 2023 Election

«Abascal’s Tone Could Mobilize Left Again, Echoing 2023 Election»

Does raising the volume help Vox’s leader before an election? The thesis circulating in forums is uncomfortable for both sides: according to one participant, Santiago Abascal’s outbursts during the final weeks of the July 23, 2023 (23J) campaign coincided with a five-point rise for the PSOE in one month. Now, with the same attitude, some suspect the effect is repeating. It is not far-fetched: the left mobilizes when it identifies a clear enemy, and Abascal offers himself as such with undisguised efficiency.

The paradox is amusing. A party claiming to represent silenced Spain works, according to this analysis, as the best mobilizer for its opponent. The result is a perfect trade-off: Abascal keeps seats until retirement and Sánchez presides until retirement. Both happy. Both entrenched.

The PSOE’s Calculation With Each Outburst

The central argument is not that Abascal says politically incorrect things. It is that he says them in a specific way: poolside thuggery, bully attitude, mud-slinging tone. Some compare his style to Marine Le Pen’s, and the Spaniard comes off worse. The Frenchwoman speaks of the people, popular power, votes. Without raising her voice. Without offering the spectacle the left needs to point to the violent ultra coming for everything.

The practical consequence is a vote transfer invisible in polls. Each aggressive intervention activates a left-wing voter who was at home. And that voter, added to those already going to vote, produces the differential that decides seats in tight provinces.

Why Doesn’t Vox Change Strategy If It Costs Elections?

Because its base doesn’t want it to change. This is the dominant answer in the analysis. Vox voters don’t want lukewarm imitations of the PP. They want hard truths spoken even if manners are lost. The dilemma presented is simple: better to say what you think and lose, than to dilute into forms and do nothing. Only older voters are scared by the noise.

The problem is that this loyal core has a ceiling. The comparison with Podemos appears naturally: while the purple party claimed to be neither left nor right, it reached 20%. When it defined itself without complexes, it stayed at 10%. The same ceiling awaits those who lock themselves in their trench.

PP Lost July 23 Due to Its Own Campaign, Not Vox

Here the analysis becomes uncomfortable for the right. The July defeat wasn’t Abascal’s fault. It was a PP that spent the campaign incivil Vox, asking for post-election pacts with the PSOE, and buying polls giving them 160 seats. Feijóo didn’t go to the second debate. He was photographed with a drug trafficker. And the mantra that Spain is sociologically left-wing, repeated for decades, convinced the leadership they had to move to the center. To the center, in practice, towards the left.

The result is a right wing that will never vote PP. If not with Vox, it will be with Vux, Vax, or abstention. The strategy of capturing votes from a center-left that only exists in consultants’ imagination has left the party without solid ground.

The System Needs Both Sides to Vote

The most cynical reading is also the most coherent. Abascal’s alarms mobilize both electorates. The socialist one and his own. And that suits the system, which needs votes to legitimize itself. It panics if people don’t vote, because those disengaged only return to polling stations with a gun pointed at their back. Vox, in this version, is part of the setup. No party stepping outside the script would be allowed.

The conclusion is bitter for those expecting something different. The leader saying what many think changes nothing. It only guarantees those thinking the opposite also come out to vote. And meanwhile, both stay. What a coincidence.