A 30-euro passport may be the best hedge for uncertain times

A 30-euro passport as a hedge against what's coming

With recent lockdowns still fresh in memory and the ECB's digital currency already announced for October, an uncomfortable piece of advice has resurfaced: the best investment for the average Spaniard is not an index fund, but a valid passport. It costs 30 euros and, according to those who recommend it, allows you to leave Spain the very day a decree closes the borders. Recent history gives reasons not to laugh it off: during the SARS-1 crisis of 2008 and Elbichito in 2020, those with up-to-date documents and a packed bag were able to cross into Germany while others queued outside police stations.

The 30 euros that buy you an exit

The idea is simple: a Spanish passport costs 30 euros and, once issued, does not depend on the government of the day authorizing anything. Against emergency decrees and states of alarm that suspended travel within hours in 2020, the document allows an immediate response. Someone who has had to escape twice, in 2008 and 2020, says the full kit —a passport with six months of validity, 10,000 euros in cash and two changes of clothes— fits in a Ryanair backpack and has worked both times.

Some point out that a passport guarantees nothing: if police are ordered to close airports, the paper falls short. Others note that, as with Elbichito fines, legal recourse will come years later and be of little use. Even so, the person behind the thesis insists: it is not about fleeing, but about having the option.

Bitcoin versus the ECB's digital currencies

The conversation soon drifts toward money. If the state can devalue, track, censor or expire cash, the alternative for some is Bitcoin: pseudonymous, uncensorable, unconfiscatable and open source. The shadow of CBDCs —digital currencies issued by the ECB that, according to the discussion, will arrive in October— reinforces that distrust. Some counter that most bitcoin is already in the hands of large asset managers like BlackRock, Vanguard or State Street, which makes it the same old system. In between, cash in Swiss francs and an opaque account abroad appear as old-school wealth protection.

From self-sufficiency to stock market riddles

The conversation, which starts with physical refuge, ends with portfolio refuge. Against those betting on laying hens and wheat, or on learning edible wild plants, others argue that the best investment is insider information. In the most recent stretch, with references to 2025 as a great year and to trades closed in January and February, riddles have been posted about stocks that have not yet taken off. Two have already been solved —Dow and Hims— and two remain pending, with the conversation turned into a clue game mixing JD.com with the owner of MediaMarkt.

Everyone is looking for the windfall that will make the passport unnecessary. Nobody explains very well what to do when the passport is no use either.