Novo Nordisk vs Lilly: The GLP-1 Battle Numbers

The GLP-1 stock battle: the European red pill versus the American blue pill

Which pharmaceutical company is the right one to invest in the obesity boom: the European or the American? The figures for the first half of 2026 offer a clue, and they are not what one might expect.

The European figures

Novo Nordisk raised its 2026 guidance trinc a record-breaking semester. Sales reached 175.311 billion Danish kroner, with an Ebit of 86.679 billion and a net profit of 69.546 billion. The generated free cash flow of 55.297 billion supports a free cash flow yield of 8.3% against a market capitalization of just over 1.3 trillion kroner. The dividend hovers around 4% and the ROIC approaches 30%. It is not a company in decline, despite the market wanting to sell that narrative.

The American challenge and entry price

On the other side, Eli Lilly, the "blue pill," with over 70,000 employees compared to Novo's 50,000, and a portfolio spanning oncology to immunology. The antiestéticar is that the American firm will outpace the European one. However, if that were to happen, Novo's annual profit could drop from 110 to 100 billion kroner, resulting in an earnings per share of about 22.7 kroner, or roughly 30 euros at current exchange rates. This is where analysts see the red pill in an attractive zone: between 30 and 35 euros per share.

This reflection is significant in a country where extreme obesity often requires cranes to exit vehicles. The GLP-1 market has only just begun, with the oral version already approved in the US and Europe, and the 7.2 mg version arriving in Europe. The fight still has many rounds left, and for now, the numbers favor those who know how to wait.

With these figures, one might say the red pill is well-priced. But the market never gives anything away, and the blue pill is hardly cheap either. Let everyone choose their own Matrix.