PLATA --- Hilo oficial (IV)

neցrofuturo dijo:
Si, pensaba llegar a 40 en un plis plas, y a 100 antes de acabar el año; ¿Le parece Mucho?

Lo que sobra aquí es PAUSA, que aún estamos por debajo de 1980.
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Pues tendrá que echar el freno, la suerte está echada.
Ojalá fuera cómo dice pero, los 100 los tendrá que aparcar por el momento..
 
Pues yo estaba esperando(me imaginaba algo así) un doble techo en el oro por los 1790-1800 primer pico hace unos días y probar un corto en plata con SL ajustado.
Ahora esta mas en aguas turbulenta... pero aun confió en un repunte en un par de dias a esos precios.
 
arckan69 dijo:
Venta de volatilidad en estéreo con sistema de siembra y rebautizo de las plusvalías regulares - pág. 4

Hola, a los que operáis en Comex y similares. Os planteo esta estrategia que el Sr Fco Llinares publica hoy en su blog, para ver qué os parece, y para compartirla con vosotros. Podemos criticarla, y comentarla. Saludos
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Para los vagos, me animo a pegar el articulo, y añado que también me interesa su analisis ya que no acabo de entender como funciona lo que se comenta.
Que pasa si compras un strike y baja? porque se vende(cambia por otro strike) si esta subiendo.
neցrofuturo hace poco hablabas de algo como esto, pero no se si es igual.

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Como el título es muy corto, vamos a desmenuzar la estrategia por partes para que se entienda. Se trata de una estrategia que consigue a la vez los puntos siguientes:<br />
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1 –<strong> Una relación riesgo/beneficio muy grande</strong>. Ello es debido a que el riesgo está limitado y, durante la operativa, se consigue que llegue a cero. Mientras, el beneficio aumenta exponencialmente debido al sistema de siembra incluido en la estrategia y al gran potencial del spread.<br />
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2 – <strong>Una probabilidad baja de perder un millón de pelas</strong> y una probabilidad razonable de ganar un cuarto de millón de dólares.<br />
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3 – Inmerso en la misma estrategia y sin hacer nada aparte, incluye una <strong>redefinición de plusvalías regulares en irregulares,</strong> consiguiendo un gran ahorro fiscal. Además, consigue que los beneficios de la propia estrategia sean a un plazo mayor de un año.<br />
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<strong>OPERATIVA</strong><br />
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Se va a operar con un call spread sobre la plata en el mercado Comex, con el vencimiento de diciembre del 2014. Con más de dos años por delante dará tiempo a que funcione bien la venta de volatilidad y que se acumule el beneficio con el sistema de siembra incluido.<br />
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La venta de volatilidad es en estéreo porque <strong>se empieza comprando el strike 80 pero, a la hora de vender, se vende el strike 85</strong>. De esta forma el beneficio no se obtiene en dinero, sino en spreads que han costado cero dólares y que pueden llegar a dar 25.000 $ cada uno.<br />
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<strong>Ejemplo de operativa:</strong><br />
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Ayer mi vecino de arriba compró el call 80 a 0.70 (3.500$). En el momento en el que haya una pequeña subida de la plata, vende el call 85 al precio que le costó el call 80. De esta forma acaba de formar un call spread que no le ha costado nada y que nunca le producirá ningún riesgo, <strong>pero que le puede dar un beneficio de 25.000 $.</strong><br />
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Una vez vendido el call 85, repite la operación. De esa forma va acumulando spreads comprados a coste cero, riesgo cero y grandes beneficios potenciales.<br />
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Es muy razonable que durante el primer año se puedan acumular 10 spreads, <strong>con un beneficio potencial de 250.000$ y riesgo cero</strong>.<br />
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Voy a presentar dos modalidades para la acumulación de spreads:<br />
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<strong>La primera sería así:</strong><br />
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Se compra el call 80 a los siguientes precios: a 0.70 aproximadamente (si hoy no sube la plata se puede intentar a 0.68), a 0.50, a 0.30 y a 0.10.</p>
<p>
Se vende el call 85 cada vez que alcanza el precio al que se ha pagado el call 80. Se repite la operación tantas veces como se pueda.<br />
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&nbsp;Riesgo total de pérdida en el peor de los casos: un millón de pelas. Probabilidad de que ocurra: muy pequeña.<br />
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<strong>La segunda modalidad es como sigue:</strong><br />
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Se compra el call 80 a 0.70. Si sigue bajando, se compra el call 75 al mismo precio cuando llegue. Cuando sube, se vende el call con un strike de 5$ mayor que el que se ha comprado, al mismo precio al que se compró el strike 5$ menor.<br />
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En vez de bajar el precio de compra como en la modalidad primera, se paga siempre 0.70 y se va bajando el strike cada 5$ y vendiendo luego el strike 5$ superior.<br />
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En esta modalidad el riesgo total es mayor, pero la probabilidad de perder es mucho menor y la probabilidad de ganar una burrada es mucho más alta.<br />
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Cada uno debe elegir la modalidad que más le guste. Incluso se podría hacer una mezcla de las dos modalidades.<br />
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<strong>REBAUTIZO DE PLUSVALÍAS</strong><br />
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Dentro de unos meses y antes de que haga un año de las operaciones, tendremos varias patas con unas pérdidas muy grandes y otras patas con unos beneficios mayores. En ese momento, al hacer la estrategia se hace de forma que va consolidando minusvalías menores de un año y va dejando las patas con plusvalías sin tocar. Al tiempo que se hace esto, <strong>se siguen acumulando spreads gratis</strong>.<br />
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<strong>Por ejemplo:</strong><br />
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Imaginemos que tenemos beneficios en el call 80 comprado y pérdidas en el call 85 vendido.<br />
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En cada bajada de la plata se recomprará un call 85 con la consiguiente consolidación de la minusvalía y en la siguiente subida se venderá el call 87 o el call 90 si ya cotiza, al precio que se ha recomprado el call 85. De esta manera, y con una sola operación, conseguimos las dos cosas: acumular un spread gratis y consolidar minusvalías menores de un año.<br />
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Ahora analicemos el caso contrario: imaginemos que tenemos las pérdidas en el call 80 comprado y&nbsp; los beneficios en el call 85 vendido.<br />
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Cada bajada de la plata se comprará un call 75 y en la siguiente subida se venderá el call 80 al precio que se ha comprado el call 75. Con ello se vuelven a conseguir las dos cosas que interesan:&nbsp; acumular un spread gratis y consolidar minusvalías menores de un año<br />
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Hay que recalcar que, como se puede ver, siempre se empieza cualquier operación con la compra de un call y se termina con la venta de un call de strike superior. <strong>Está totalmente contraindicado empezar vendiendo</strong>.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
A pesar de que la estrategia es muy simple y sencilla, si alguien tiene alguna pequeña duda se aclarará en los comentarios. Para no tener que citar el título en los posts futuros para mencionar esta estrategia, le llamaremos "la facilita".</p>
 
neցrofuturo dijo:
No renuncio a los 100 pavos................,Faltan tres meses para acabar el año.
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Veo los 100 cerca, porque el próximo impulso igual va a ser con uno de estos.

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Tom Fitzpatrick: “When it comes to silver, it is possible we could see a retracement back to the $30.50 to $31 breakout level (see chart below). We also had silver advance from the $32.70 area after the Fed announcement, so that could very well act as support.”

My Blog

Supongo que esto sería coherente con el posible patrón "cup and handle", en el que normalmente el precio retrocede entre 1/3 y 1/2 del ascenso del lado derecho de la "taza" antes de continuar la subida. Si realmente es un “cup and handle” imagino que cabría esperar que posteriormente la plata se fuera a unos 44 dólares (hay unos 9 dólares de diferencia entre el “fondo” de la taza y el “pico” del lado derecho y al parecer esa distancia suele ser el objetivo del precio en la posterior subida en este patrón).

Cup with Handle (Continuation) - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

(ni idea de si realmente esto va a ser así, sólo es una especulación gratuita y no soy ningún experto en trading ni en AT).
 
Van der Graaf dijo:
Tom Fitzpatrick: “When it comes to silver, it is possible we could see a retracement back to the $30.50 to $31 breakout level (see chart below). We also had silver advance from the $32.70 area after the Fed announcement, so that could very well act as support.”

My Blog

Supongo que esto sería coherente con el posible patrón "cup and handle", en el que normalmente el precio retrocede entre 1/3 y 1/2 del ascenso del lado derecho de la "taza" antes de continuar la subida. Si realmente es un “cup and handle” imagino que cabría esperar que posteriormente la plata se fuera a unos 44 dólares (hay unos 9 dólares de diferencia entre el “fondo” de la taza y el “pico” del lado derecho y al parecer esa distancia suele ser el objetivo del precio en la posterior subida en este patrón).

Cup with Handle (Continuation) - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

(ni idea de si realmente esto va a ser así, sólo es una especulación gratuita y no soy ningún experto en trading ni en AT).
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Si volvemos a los 30$... ¡A cargar de nuevo un poco de plata! :baba:
 
sorpresa: ¿JP corto en futuros y largo en fisico?

Sorprendente versión sobre lo que cuecen los de JP Morgan. :8::rolleye:

Is JP Morgan Shorting Paper Metals While Acquiring Massive Physical Stockpiles? | SilverDoctors.com


IS JP MORGAN SHORTING PAPER METALS WHILE ACQUIRING MASSIVE PHYSICAL STOCKPILES?

SEPTEMBER 26, 2012 BY THE DOC 55 COMMENTS

*Updated
Manipulation explained, or pure disinformation orchestrated to pre-emptively manage the fallout of the coming JP Morgan silver manipulation scandal?
As silver investors are likely aware, leading silver analyst Ted Butler has openly speculated whether JP Morgan’s alleged massive short silver position is held on behalf a client such as the Federal Reserve (with the intent to prop up the dollar by suppressing gold and silver) or the Chinese government (with the intent of acquiring physical gold and silver bullion at a discount due to their massive paper short position on the futures market).
The Doc has long privately wondered whether the bullion banks’ PM short positions could actually be leveraging their own physical bullion accumulation by artificially suppressing the paper futures price.
These thoughts originate in our amowing of Jim Sinclair, who has always maintained that the bullion banks will be the one’s making the lion’s share of the profits in this great secular gold and silver bull market. One thing the bullion banksters are not is dumb, and they can see the writing on the wall for the US dollar as well as any SD or ZH reader.
New commentary from a bullion insider who claims to have personally managed the movement of 27 million ounces of gold from HSBC’s vaults into JP Morgan’s seems to substantiate Sinclair’s claims.
The industry insider has come forward claiming that JP Morgan’s paper short position is in fact a hedged trade (as Blythe Masters claimed here)- and claims that JPM is in fact MASSIVELY LONG PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER HELD IN THEIR OWN PRIVATE VAULTS while short the paper futures market.
Is JP Morgan actually a double agent shorting the paper metals market for their own benefit?

The claim is not only rational, but it also would perfectly explain why the CFTC has opened three separate investigations into silver market manipulation, and has yet to charge anyone with manipulation of silver.
Clearly, if JP Morgan’s commodities desk was accumulating massive physical gold and silver inventories in their own personal vaults, they would be able to claim their paper short position is a legitimate hedge- essentially leveraging their physical position against the paper COMEX futures market itself.
Miles Franklin’s David Schectman states he has been in contact with the insider, who claims JPM is massively long physical gold and silver bullion stored in their own warehouses:
Whereas Ted Butler focuses on JP Morgan and “the Big Four Commercial Banks,” and their perpetual “short” position in silver (and gold), I don’t recall him ever suggesting that they actually own the physical silver to offset their short positions.
My friend Trader David R flatly states that this IS the case; he has seen the silver with his own eyes in London. In fact, he asked me to come with him last year and told me he would bring me to the vaults and personally show me the silver. Last winter he emailed me and said, “I will be going to London in May; if want to come along, I am sure I can get you a tour of a few of the major banks vaults (JPM included) and you can see all of the gold and silver for yourself ?”

For those inquiring minds wishing for a little background on this mysterious gold trader David R:
I worked at some of the largest bullion banks in the world over my career and I ran all types of books and did a lot of business with Central Banks around the globe. I was involved in the largest gold hedge ever done in the history of the world back in 1996. This has been my life for the past 18 years. From 2000 to 2006 I was the gold trader at Barclays London. I have worked for AIG, Barclays, and UBS, some of the biggest bullion desks in the world.
I worked for three of the major bullion banks for 11 years and was in charge of Barkleys gold book and the hired 42 Brinks trucks to move our 27 million ounces of gold out of HSBC ‘s vault and into JPMs vault when HSBC raised storage costs on us, I am 100% positive that it’s there. I know we had 27 million ounces of gold on our daily balance sheet and the other big banks all had around the same amounts.
David R left Barclays and moved to Manhattan to work for one of the largest and most successful privately held hedge funds in NYC. He was in charge of the precious metals trading department, and supervised dozens of the most talented precious metal’s traders in NYC. I was told by a reliable source that every metals trader worth his salt would kill to work for that firm. The traders were not salaried, they worked on commission and they all made BIG money. That is where I met David. He gave me a personal tour of their trading department. His understanding of the gold and silver industry and his resume is as good as it gets.

The trader states that JPM is indeed massively long physical precious metals and set to vastly benefit from the coming mania, precisely as Jim Sinclair has long predicted:
They buy the physical silver at the same time they sell the future (on Comex) futures trade in contango (higher price than spot physical) they get zero interest rate cash from FED so borrow the money for free, they own the vaults to store the silver…. so as the future comes to maturity they can either settle against their physical long or roll the future to collect more free contango…. This is pure arbitrage paid for by the FED. This has been going on for over 30 years and why shouldn’t they be allowed to have 25% of the Open Interest? There is no manipulation because they are short the futures and long the physical and have “ZERO” price risk, but nice profits! It’s brilliant trading and completely 100% legal and that’s why they will never be charged with manipulation because there is none going on. Sometimes it’s just that easy!

David R states there is no massive shortage of physical silver- it is just being hoarded by the bullion banks in their own private vaults ahead of dollar devaluation and collapse:
Let’s go and visit their vaults and you can see all the physical silver there… Lease rates are at full carry +. There is no shortage what so ever and the banks are charging 40 bp for storage because they cannot find any more space to put it all, you can take all the physical you want! The JPM manipulation is not a manipulation, but a way of trading that has been going on for years. JPM is short futures (due to contango) and long physical. People need to understand that metals are just a derivative of the interest rate market and once people do, they will get a better understanding why the market moves the way it does.
I explained to you what HSBC and JPM do on the silver. They get $ from the FED for free. They own all the storage vaults, so they do not have to pay the fees for storage. They then own the physical silver in their vaults and sell the futures contracts (which are in contango) at a much higher price than OTC price so then hold the both till delivery. Since there is no cost for $ and no cost for storage, they made a fortune on earning the contango of the silver and gold market. It’s a brilliant strategy, which has made them a fortune.
If you sat with me for a day I could show you how this market really works.
Miles Franklin’s David Schectman states he has known David R for over four years, that he is legitimate and the real deal, and that although David states JPM’s short silver (and gold) positions are NOT naked, it is massively bullish for both metals, stating:
He is absolutely convinced that gold and silver are going MUCH, MUCH higher. He told me last week that with the Fed’s latest “open-ended” QE edict, the dollar and bond market are done, finished and the bull market in gold is guaranteed! As far as he is concerned, Bernanke has sold out our kids and grandchildren and it no longer makes any difference who occupies the White House!

As mentioned previously, if JPM is shorting gold and silver futures with the intent of eventually breaking the futures market/ physical price link to the metals, this would explain motive (pure profit- always the ONLY motive for a bankster), as well as the reason why the CFTC has been unable to charge JPM with manipulation of the silver market- even though they routinely fleece the specs using their algos and raids.

While we have always believed the bullion banks will be long gold and silver when it really matters at the end of this massive secular bull, there are several points about trader David R’s claims bother us- this trader claims JPM is simply arbitraging futures vs. physical using 0% cash from the Fed- but there have been single days (May 2nd, 2011 and Sept 21st I think it was for starters) in which the COMEX volume surpassed global mining output for the entire year. JPM’s physical holdings can not possibly equal their net paper short position (just on the COMEX, not to mention their OTC positions).
This trader also claims there is no shortage of physical metal, it is simply all being stored in JPM’s private vault and he has seen the metal himself. Our thought is that he may have seen the metal, but that doesn’t miccionan it hasn’t been rehypothecated and there are 1,000 people who believe they own it.
Finally, when we ran this story by our friend Ned Naylor-Leyland, he believes it is pure disinformation, stating that the story is a bit like the Blythe Masters interview- and was orchestrated purely to pre-emptively manage the fallout of the coming JP Morgan silver manipulation scandal.
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Articulo en Rankia: Lo mejor está por venir… pero todavía no!

Actualmente, tanto el mercado del oro como el de la plata se están topando con de fuertes resistencias, como muestran los siguientes gráficos.

Las fechas consideradas para alcanzar un nuevo pico son, como muy pronto julio del año 2013, aunque la fecha objetivo preferida por los analistas es enero / febrero del 2014.
 
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Cruce de 50 DMA con 200 DMA significa COMPRAR , no le deis más vueltas, correcciones de risa.

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Es usted un convencido de la causa. :D

Mire de no llevar un disgusto...:D
 
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