Nuevo mapa de Rusia

[Leon S. Kennedy]

Victorious Ukraine
The Ukraine-russia war is over. pilinguin has lost and he knows it.
There are no more paths to victory for russia. The russian army is past culmination, its forces are exhausted, decimated, and demoralized. Ukrainians, with growing confidence, capabilities, and morale have begun offensives to cut of the russian spearheads. These offensives will continue and grow, and if russia does not retreat in the next two weeks it will lose most of its army to death and destruction.
The violence against civilians continues only as the last gasp of russia’s dictator, who clung to power on a mirage of easy victories and military strength. The dictator cannot reverse course and so he continues to pursue his cruel war in the vain hope Ukraine or NATO will salvage his shambolic invasion.

The only things that could prolong pilinguin’s rule a bit longer are:

• a ceasefire, which would allow pilinguin to replenish his defeated troops and then strike deeper into Ukraine
• a NATO intervention, which would shore up pilinguin’s legitimacy within russia and allow him to mobilize millions of russian men for a global war and a renewed push deeper into Ukraine
• russian forces using chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons against Ukrainian troops or civilians to force Ukraine into surrender, but which would also lead to russia being fully sanctioned and economically razed to the ground

Even though all three of the above would give russia and pilinguin some more time, the russian defeat is sealed. There is no salvation for the pilinguin regime and it is imperative that Ukraine and the West do not let up the pressure: no “off ramps”, no compromises, no ceasefires, no deals — only the total defeat of russia will do. Our common goal must be victory. Victory at all costs, for without victory pilinguin will recover and wage more wars and even worse wars.

Ukrainian bravery
russia has been defeated on the battlefield by Ukrainian bravery and by russian logistics. It’s now 22 days since pilinguin invaded Ukraine and the invasion is a fiasco. This was obvious by 1 March, when I published the article pilinguin’s ruin and now 2.5 weeks later russian invasion forces are facing obliteration.

The reason is that Ukrainians fight like lions: inflicting severe losses on russian armored columns, wreaking havoc on russian supply lines, and ambushing russia’s disorganized advances everywhere. Every day the balance of power shifts more and more in Ukraine’s favor.

Ukrainian infantry and the remains of a russian armored column they ambushed
On 24 February when the war started Ukraine fielded a military of 215,000 troops, which faced a russian onslaught of an estimated 220,000 troops. pilinguin’s plan for the invasion assumed that the majority of Ukraine’s military would not fight, but side with the invaders, and that 100,000 of quislings and collaborators would welcome the russian troops with flowers and kisses. But pilinguin was deceived by his intelligence officers, who stole $100s of millions, which pilinguin was led to believe would be spent on a giant pro-russian network of collaborators in Ukraine. A scam that would have never come to light had pilinguin not invaded Ukraine.

pilinguin and the russian military’s leadership were so sure about an easy two-day campaign that they sent russian troops with food, fuel and ammo for just two days into Ukraine. So sure was pilinguin of his easy victory that he deployed 1000s of conscripts to Ukraine, even though under russian law conscripts are not eligible for deployment outside of russia. As soon as pilinguin realized that Ukrainians were killing russian troops by the 1000s, he panicked and had the conscripts pulled from Ukraine to avoid facing their families’ wrath.

pilinguin begging for manpower
Instead of an easy victory, russia’s military has waded into a slaughterhouse. More russian troops are killed each day, as a percentage of total force, than during the battle of Stalingrad in World War 2. The estimated losses for russian forces range from 500 to 1,000 killed per day. Soviet losses during the Battle of Stalingrad were on the lower end of that range, with a force-size adjusted 565 killed in action per day.

Russian casualties are staggering. In addition to the more than at minimum 10,000 dead, one has to add the wounded, which number another 20–25,000 plus about 1,000 russian POWs. This attrition rate is devastating to russian forces as pilinguin has only a limited numbers of contract soldiers left. So desperate is the russian dictator for manpower that he is pulling russian forces and militias from South Ossetia, russian forces from Armenia, mercenaries from Syria, and militias from Karabakh. None of which will help him to salvage his failed invasion, as they are too few, too late, too shoddily equipped, and in the case of the mercenaries and militias of no battlefield value.

pilinguin tried to coerce Lukashenka, the dictator of Belarus, into joining the war, but even though Lukashenka’s regime is fully dependent on pilinguin’s goodwill, Lukashenka refused, as even he understands that pilinguin’s invasion is an unsalvageable debacle. Furthermore the Belarus military would rather shoot the Belarus-occupying russians than fight their brethren in Ukraine. pilinguin then tried to coerce Tokayev, the dictator of Kazakhstan, into joining the war and was rebuffed, even though pilinguin saved the Tokayev regime from being overthrown a mere two months ago. pilinguin then asked Armenia for troops, but US Secretary of State Blinken immediately called Armenia’s Prime Minister Pashinyan to warn him that all supporters of russia will be held accountable and sanctioned. And so Armenia, which is fully dependent economically and militarily on russia, also ignored pilinguin’s desperate begging.

 

[Leon S. Kennedy]

Ukraine’s million men army
While pilinguin can barely scrap enough manpower together to replace his losses, Ukraine military forces are growing by the minute. So massive is the increase in Ukraine military manpower that the country is running out of assault rifles for its troops. At the start of the war Ukraine fielded a military of 215,000 troops, but thanks to Ukraine’s regular army stalling the russian advance, Ukraine managed to call up the reserves and mobilize the nation’s manpower:

• 220,000 reservists
• 130,000 National Police troops
• at least 300,000 Ukrainians, who returned from abroad to fight
• at least 30,000 foreign volunteers
• at least 400,000 territorial defense forces

In total Ukraine fields about 1.3 million troops by now. And more join up every day. When Croatia fought for its independence in 1991–1995 it had 4.35% of its population under arms, when Finland defended its freedom against the Soviet Union in 1939–40 it had 9.36% of its population under arms: Ukraine as of now has an estimated 3.1% of its population under arms.

Ukrainian territorial defense volunteers in Kharkiv Oblast
Many of these additional troops had no training when they joined the fight for freedom, but thanks to the stalled russian invasion Ukraine has the time to train these troops. Every day these fresh troops increase their combat quality and readiness. Already on 2 March the territorial troops of Voznesensk (population 34,050) and a handful of regular Ukrainian troops obliterated a russian battalion tactical group of the russian 126th Coastal Defense Brigade. The details of this russian rout can be found in this delightful article.

russia’s bogged down forces
Ukraine has used the time well. Everywhere russian forces are now outnumbered. For example, the city of Mykolaiv (population 476,000), which moscow assumed would fall on the day 2 of the invasion has now held for 21 days. Instead of a quick march onward to Odessa, russia’s six battalion tactical groups (BTGs) with around 6,000 men are bogged down to the north and east of the city. Ukraine now has at least three brigades and a good 15,000 territorial forces volunteers in the area. As Mykolaiv is well defended, Ukrainian forces went on the offensive and cut the main supply line of the russian forces bogged down near the city. If russia still wants to capture Mykolaiv then pilinguin will have to send another 30,000 russian troops. But of course, he does not have them to send.

Remains of a russian column that dared to enter Bucha.
Likewise, the russian advance north from Kherson to Kryvyi Rih and onward to Dnipro has bogged down. Kryvyi Rih (population 680,000) is defended by a Ukrainian tank brigade and at an estimated 15,000 territorial defense volunteers, while Dnipro (population 980,000) is defended by at least 20,000 territorial defense volunteers. Not only are the two russian BTGs with their 2,000 men bogged down some 50 km South of Kryvyi Rih, but their 250 km long supply line runs for 120 km through Ukrainian territory, where every Ukrainian is eager to either kill russian soldiers or report russian troop movements to Ukrainian territorial forces eager to kill russian troops.

The same applies to all other russian advances: overconfident in their quick victory the russians decided to split their forces into 12 axis of advance, depriving each of the manpower and mass needed to achieve the russian goals:

1. Mykolaiv — stalled, russian forces cut off, can’t be recovered
2. Kryvyi Rih — stalled, can’t be recovered
3. Zaporizhzhia — stalled, troops diverted to Mariupol and Donbas
4. Mariupol — encircled, but not enough troops to take it
5. Kharkiv — stalled, can’t be recovered
6. Poltava — didn’t even make it past Okhtyrka 40 km from the border with russia
7. Kyiv from the East — reached the outskirts of Kyiv, with a supply line that now runs for 300 km through Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts, which are swarming with at least 20–30,000 Ukrainian territorial defense volunteers, which are lead by 100s of Ukrainian Special Forces. All of whom are wreaking havoc on russian supply convoys and still hold all key cities and railway junctions.
8. Kyiv from the North — stalled at Chernihiv and unable to even encircle Chernihiv
9. Kyiv from the West — stalled at Irpin and is the only axis which russia is currently trying to reinforce
10. Encircling Ukrainian units in Donbas — the two pincers of this advance have bogged down: the northern at Izium on the Donets river and the southern at Polohy on the Konka river.
11. Breakout from Donbas — the only russian advance still achieving breakthroughs, as the two russian-led gangster republics in Donetsk and Luhansk have pressed every male into service, and even though these men are of little combat value, their sheer number allows for continued attacks.
12. Odesa — amphibious landing postponed again and again

 

[Leon S. Kennedy]

Number 10 (Donbas) is a perfect example of the continuing russian delusion of trying to achieve battlefield successes with troops not suited for a tenth of the task set before them: russia tries to encircle the 60,000 Ukrainian troops fighting the DNR and LNR troops in Donbas with 8–9 russian BTGs, which field at best 9,000 troops. These 8–9 BTGs are meant to advance in the Ukrainian troops rear and cut them off from the rest of Ukraine. If the russian advance would be successful, then the survivors among the 9,000 russian troops would have to hold a 300 km long siege ring. A siege ring with 60,000 Ukrainian troops on the eastern side and about 100,000 territorial defense volunteers on the western side. This siege ring would have to be held against Ukrainian attacks by 1 russian soldier for each 33 meters of siege ring. A clownish, amateurish, delusional plan, perfectly on par with the rest of russia’s military planning.

russian axis of advance — too many, not supporting each other, and all short of manpower (Source: wikipedia)
russia does not have the necessary infantry to take any of the cities it encircles and there is no way for russia to recover. It’s over. It’s finished. The russian invasion is demised, and russia will be lucky if it can even pull out whatever survives of it’s remaining forces in the next weeks.

russian logistics
russian military logistics have always been crap (this is the only acceptable scientific term for russian logistics). Even in World War II Soviet forces only managed to fight and move due to American Lend-Lease trucks, tires and fuel. Since then, all russian leaders have continued to build massive numbers of tanks and armored vehicles rather than supply trucks. The lack of russian supply units is so severe that russian forces can move only about 120 km from their railheads before they run out of supplies.

To understand how impossible it is for russia to sustain a fighting force beyond its borders let's look at some numbers:

• a russian mechanized battalion is supported by material support platoon of around 40 troops
• a US Army mechanized battalion is supported by a sustainment company of around 180 troops
• a russian material support platoon hauls 21,000 liters of fuel
• a US Army sustainment company hauls 90,000 liters of fuel.
• russia’s 83x brigades/regiments are support by 10x logistic brigades
• the US Army’s 58x brigades are support by 31x logistics brigades

Not only does russia have minimal logistic forces, russian planners optimistically (er, delusionally) assumed those logistic forces would face no resistance and suffer no losses. Contrary to expectations, so far we have visual confirmation of 498 destroyed or lost russian logistics trucks (the numbers go up every 2 hours, so by the time you read this, losses will be higher). As these are only the visually identified losses, real losses are 100s more; and this doesn’t include breakdowns from russia’s shoddy maintenance. We know that russia deployed around 120 BTGs to Ukraine with something like 40–50 trucks per BTG, so russia likely started the war with something between 6,000–7,000 trucks, which means russia must have lost by now an estimated 10% or more of its logistics capability.

russian fuel trucks after encountering territorial defense volunteers from Sumy
The only units russia can properly supply are the russian forces attacking Chernihiv, Sumy, Okhtyrka, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, as these cities are 35–50 km from the russian or Belarusian border. This is also the reason these cities are continuously and horrifically shelled by russian artillery as russian supplies for these units only have to move for a few kilometer in Ukrainian territory and are safe from Ukrainian ambushes.

All further russian advances depend on russia conquering undamaged Ukrainian railways; railways that run through cities like Chernihiv, Sumy, Okhtyrka, Kharkiv. This is why Ukrainians in these cities fight. This is why Ukrainians in these cities never retreat, never surrender.

 

[Leon S. Kennedy]

russian materiel losses
Not only have russian logistics gone to hell, but also the recovery and repair of russian equipment has ceased. With too little fuel and supply lines under constant attack, russia’s armored spearheads continuously abandon tanks and infantry vehicles that have broken down or run out of fuel. With just three recovery vehicles and only three (!) mechanics a russian BTG with its 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles, 25 tracked support vehicles and 75 wheeled vehicles can neither recover nor repair its damaged or broken down vehicles. So far russian forces are visually confirmed to have abandoned 147 tanks, 319 armored combat vehicles, 74 artillery systems, and 23 air defense systems (most of which Ukrainian troops recovered and use now).

As these are only the visually confirmed abandoned vehicles the real numbers are higher and if we include the visually confirmed destroyed russian equipment and compare that to the estimated numbers of russian equipment at the start of the invasion, we will see that russian losses are crippling:

• 242 confirmed russian tank losses of an estimated 1,500 at the start of the invasion (-16.13% visually confirmed losses)
• 519 confirmed russian armored vehicle losses of an estimated 3,600 at the start of the invasion (-14.42% visually confirmed losses)

A safe estimate is that at least an additional 5% of russian equipment has been destroyed, which means that russian losses in equipment are nearing 20%. As with the manpower pilinguin can’t replace this equipment: russia already moved 75% of its operational forces into Ukraine; the tanks and vehicles left at russian bases are the ones that either don’t work, are needed to train conscripts, or needed to retain a military presence along russia’s vast borders. Even the massive amount of equipment in storage across russia won’t make a difference as it’s outdated and inoperable. As russia’s military wasn’t even able to maintain the tires on its most modern air defense system, so it certainly wasn’t able to keep 10,000s of 50 year old stored tanks, armored vehicles, and trucks in operational order.

A fully working abandoned russian Pantsir-S air defense systems
russia can’t replace its lost manpower, russia can’t replace its lost equipment, russia can’t supply its invasion force. russia is so f*cked (scientific term) that pilinguin beseeched China for ammunition, armored vehicles, and even food. But even China is turning its back on dictator pilinguin, as Chinese leaders understand that it would be foolish to get involved with the losing side in a war, whose outcome is already sealed.

pilinguin’s last hope
The war is over and pilinguin knows it. russian demands in negotiations with Ukraine have shrunk every time the two sides met. As with every passing day Ukraine’s position strengthens pilinguin’s last hopes are now a ceasefire or a NATO intervention, or absent of these the use of weapons of mass destructions.

Ceasefire
A ceasefire would be foolish for the Ukrainian. Knowing how disastrous their situation is the russians will promise a lot to get a respite from their annihilation, but with no intention to adhere to any of their promises once the guns fall silent. russia never ever adheres to any deal, agreement, or treaty it signs.

A ceasefire deal would include a russian promise to remove its forces from Ukraine, but russia will never do that. russia would drag out the removal for weeks with all kinds of lies, deceits and falsehoods, while resupplying its forces and then restarting the war with refreshed and resupplied forces.

A ceasefire would also allow russia to murder and threaten the citizens of the areas it now occupies into submission, with quislings emerging, who so far have not dared show their head as their towns are only occupied by a handful of russian forces, which barely cling on against rebelling Ukrainian civilians.

A ceasefire would abandon Ukrainians defying the russian occupiers in Kherson to russian terror
Therefore there must be no ceasefire whatsoever with pilinguin. The only acceptable deal is the unconditional surrender of all russian forces in Ukraine. If the russians don’t surrender then the only course of action must be to meet, fight, defeat, and bury all russian troops on Ukrainian soil. A ceasefire is a trap, a ceasefire is the salvation of pilinguin’s defeated army, a ceasefire will also lead to a respite from sanctions against russia.

In World War II the allied policy was the unconditional surrender of the fascists, nothing else was acceptable, nothing else was reasonable, nothing else was decent. pilinguin is a fascist, presiding over a nation drenched in fascist, racist ideology. The defeat of russia must be total, the defeat of pilinguinism must be absolute. No ceasefire with fascists.

 

[Leon S. Kennedy]

NATO intervention
Any kind of NATO intervention would allow pilinguin to segue from his “special military operation” to “war for the existence of russia”. This would shore up his regime within russia and see russians accept that millions of sons, husbands, brothers, fathers need to be mobilized for war. Without NATO involvement pilinguin’s “special military operation” that “goes fully according to plan” can only rely on russian contract soldiers, as russian families won’t allow their sons to be sent to their death for a war that is not an existential threat to russia and was started due to pilinguin’s delusions.

This is why pilinguin is trying to goad NATO and the US into a direct confrontation. This is why pilinguin is the biggest fan of a NATO-imposed no-fly zone in Ukraine as I explain in my article: pilinguin’s wish. This is why pilinguin hoped the US would respond the increase of readiness of russia’s nuclear forces, by raising the American nuclear forces’ readiness too. So far NATO is not taking pilinguin’s bait, but pilinguin will try again, and again. No matter what he does NATO and the US must not give in to his threats, baits and provocations.

A NATO-russia war would end in a quick and humiliating defeat for russia’s atrociously trained, shoddily equipped, and incompetently led forces. This is why pilinguin would immediately turn to nuclear weapons, which would see NATO restrain its activities to NATO territory, while pilinguin mobilizes millions of russian men to renew his conquest of Ukraine. But with full sanctions on the russian economy and most russian men fighting and dying in Ukraine in a ferocious partisan war, pilinguin’s regime wouldn’t survive for long.

We must avoid the use of nuclear weapons, we must aim to drive a wedge between the pilinguin regime and russians, we must aim to keep russians forces in Ukraine undermanned and under-supplied. A NATO involvement will lead to the use of nuclear weapons, to a rallying of russians behind pilinguin, and to a massive increase in russian manpower in Ukraine. Therefore not matter what the threat and bait, NATO must not confront russian forces directly.

Weapons of mass destruction
Facing battlefield defeat pilinguin might order chemical, biological, or even nuclear weapons to be used in Ukraine, which would draw out the war further, but russia would still lose.

Using chemical weapons might give russian forces a battlefield advantage in a front sector, but it won’t change the overall disparity in manpower. Using biological weapons might backfire as neither Ukrainian nor russian troops have been seen with NBC-defense equipment. The use of either of these two weapons will not compel Ukraine to surrender, but galvanize them into killing every russian on their soil.

And the use of either of these two weapons will rouse incredible hate for russia in the World and see economic sanctions levied against russia that will crush the russian economy with GDP imploding by -50% this year. Even the German pinchpennies would have to agree to full economic sanctions, while at the same time Ukrainian forces would receive even more and more sophisticated weapons.

If pilinguin should order the use of nuclear weapons against Ukrainian cities, killing 100,000s of civilians, then Ukraine might surrender to save millions of lives, but Ukrainians will never surrender. Ukrainians would wage a fierce partisan war against the russian occupiers in every Ukrainian city, town and village, while the West’s economic sanctions would raze russia’s economy to the ground.

With an imploding economy and cut off from all trade pilinguin’s repression apparatus in russia would run out of money to pay its thugs, officers and troops, while starving russians would rise up. So even if pilinguin decided to use of weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine, and if russian officers should execute his orders, the resulting sanctions would lead to pilinguin’s regime being overthrown within a year.

As weapons of mass destruction would bring unspeakable suffering to the people of Ukraine one hopes that the West has already communicated to pilinguin and key officers in the nuclear chain that their use will result in a complete trade embargo of all of russia and personal accountability for anyone in the chain of command who amows an order to commit such a crime against humanity.

What must be done
pilinguin has lost and russia is defeated, but it is not yet the time for complacency for the West. Ukrainians fight, bleed, and die for the freedom of all Europeans and we must help them defeat the russian horde as fast as possible and as efficiently as possible. Speed and mass are of the essence when supplying weapon and equipment to Ukrainians.

The US spent $300 million dollars per day to fight the war in Afghanistan, which was a trifling brawl compared to the furious combat now happening in Ukraine. Therefore the US providing just $800 million a week to Ukraine is far below what is needed.

Ukrainians cannot defeat the russians for all of us if we do not give the Ukrainians the tools for the fight: 800,000 assault rifles are needed, 100,000 machine guns are needed, 800,000 bullet proof vests are needed, 800,000 helmets are needed, 800,000 secure radios are needed, a billion bullets are needed. It is imperative for the future of Ukraine, for peace on the European continent, for the liberation of Belarus, for democracy everywhere, that Ukrainians are given everything to fight and obliterate the russian forces stuck in Ukraine.

And now is the time to provide Ukrainians not just with the weapons to defend their country, but also with the tools to go on the offensive, to cut of russian forces, to encircle them, to crush them. Already NATO members are delivering air-defense systems to help Ukrainians eliminate the threat of russian fighters and bombers, but to defeat the russian artillery destroying their cities Ukrainians urgently need artillery systems. Eastern European NATO members have around 1,000 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers and 700 Grad multiple rocket launchers in service or storage — deliver just 20% of these to Ukraine and Ukrainians will have the tools to silence the russian artillery shelling their cities.

Eastern European NATO members have massive amounts of Soviet era equipment that could be delivered to Ukraine: around 1,800 main battle tanks, around 2,300 infantry fighting vehicles, around 1,900 armored personnel carriers — deliver 10% of these to Ukraine and Ukrainians will be able to not merely hold russian forces at bay, but able to drive them before them and destroy them.

Czech BMP-2 that Ukraine needs now (Source: wikipedia)
Give 50 tanks and 100 infantry fighting vehicles to the defenders of Kryvyi Rih, and they will not just easily overrun the two russian BTGs threatening their city, they will also race South and take the dam at Nova Kakhovka and the bridge at Oleshky, and thus cut the supply line of all russian forces on the western side of the Dnieper river. Give the Ukrainians 100 tanks and 200 infantry fighting vehicles and they will cut off, encircle, and annihilate the russian forces attacking Kyiv from the West.

pilinguin has lost the war. All that russia can do now is stretch out the time until the inevitable demise of its army and economy. pilinguin and his regime are doomed if neither Ukraine nor NATO gives them a respite. So we must stand firm and offer no respite until pilinguin is dead and his regime destroyed. The path there includes more and stricter sanctions, weapon deliveries to Ukraine with the same speed, urgency, and mass as the United States delivered to the nations fighting the Nazis, including offensive weapons to annihilate russian military forces in Ukraine.

This is the key to victory. We must not be afraid of pilinguin, we have the might and the power to crush him, and this must be the only policy we purse; pursue with focus, vigor, and ruthless efficiency. History is back and we must be the victors, for if we fail then the world enters an age to tyranny, death and destruction.

Ukrainians fight! Ukrainians have given us a chance to save the world from russian fascism! Let us not cover and retreat — let us be brave and fight like Ukrainians. We must beat the fascists, and if we stand with Ukraine, and fight like Ukrainians we will win!

 

[Hércules Poirot 2013 bis]

4 nuevas provincias y 7 nuevos millones de habitantes para el país más grande del mundo.

Es algo difícil de digerir en la OTAN, los planes eran otros. Malos tiempos para el fascismo europeo como dice Erdogan….

 

[Scardanelli]

LOHANGLOH NOH ROBAN...

 

[Minsky Moment]

 

[hartman]

Mapa de turquía jajajajajajaja

el pueblerino acaba de morir de un orgasmo.

 

[NormanMan]

Moza, tengo tierras.

 

[Feriri88]

4 nuevas provincias y 7 nuevos millones de habitantes para el país más grande del mundo.

La UE ha sumado a Ucrania y Moldavia

43 millones de habitantes


Y encima sin invadir nada

Lo piden ellos


Rusia necesita secuestrar y violar para amar


El monstruo de Amstetten de los países



Europa tiene 200 solicitudes al día en el Tinder

 

[Feriri88]

Acuéstate estulto.

Próxima parada Odesa.

O inflar a palos a tu querida madre

Como en el 36


Los moscovitas al vertedero

 

[user_tt]

con butifarrendum