Marai
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Miss Marple dijo:Esto lo veía venir yo. No digo que vaya a haber quiebras en Wall Street, pero desde luego se han acabado los beneficios record como en los tres últimos años.
Esta noticia es importantísima, porque muestra que el colapso de las subprime va a afectar en mayor o menor medida a todo el sistema financiero, empezando por los más sofisticados. Estos bancos se han forrado vendiendo MBS (cédulas hipotecarias), y se creían que estaban cubiertos contra el riesgo de impagos porque incluían cláusulas por las que el originador de la hipoteca (subprime lender) tenía que recomprar aquellas que fallasen. Pero si el originador quiebra, ¿quién se queda con el riesgo?
A título personal, me empecé a mover para cambiar de trabajo hace dos o tres semanas, y esta semana he tenido las primeras entrevistas.
Tu que sabes del tema, ¿cuando crees que los chinos empezarán a perder interés por las emisiones de bonos de EEUU?. No sólo invierten en bonos del tesoro y titulizaciones respaldadas por el tesoro (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac), según tengo entendido también compran bonos emitidos por la banca de inversión. Te dejo un link interesante que describe como el Banco Popular de China está perdiendo dinero o va a perder dinero con estas inversiones.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/180636/
Por otra parte, y a consecuencia del incremento de impagos, los seguros frente a impagos empiezan a encarecerse.
Bond default protection shoots up for banks
PrintE-mailDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Leslie Wines, MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:16 PM ET Mar 2, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The cost of insurance against a default by top investment banks Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co Inc, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc and Morgan Stanley ballooned this week, amid increased nervousness about their exposure to the shaky subprime lending market.
The trend toward more expensive credit-default swap protection for these four banks began last week and accelerated this week, said Michael Fuhrman, an institutional equities salesman for GFI, an inter-dealer broker for credit derivatives.
"This is a trend across the market," Fuhrman said. "Instruments of broker-dealers and institutions closest to originators of mortgages and those that securitize them have moved the most."
During the housing boom, these firms made large sums of money securitizing mortgages, but new signs of trouble in the sub-prime market have shifted the focus from profits to the credit risk and lower revenue. Sub-prime mortgages, taken out by homebuyers with below average credit ratings, generally charge rates at least two or three percentage points above prime loans.
Widening spreads
Credit-default swaps, known as CDS, are over-the-counter transactions that resemble an insurance policy for debt. Under these instruments, one party buys protection for credit risk, while the other sells credit protection against defaults, lowered debt ratings and other adverse events.
On Friday credit default swaps for Goldman Sachs (GS : The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc
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Last: 195.67-3.99-2.00%
4:00pm 03/02/2007
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GS195.67, -3.99, -2.0%) , the world's biggest securities firm, grew to $33,000 per $10 million in credit protection instruments, up from $26,000 per $10 million on Monday, according to GFI data.
Merrill Lynch (MER : Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc
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Last: 82.16-1.58-1.89%
4:01pm 03/02/2007
CDS cost $25,000 per $10 million in instruments on Monday and grew to $33,000 per $10 million at the end of the week; Lehman CDS protection rose from $28,000 per $10 million in instruments to $35,000 per $10 million and Morgan Stanley (MS : morgan stanley com new
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Last: 73.40-1.69-2.25%
4:01pm 03/02/2007
CDS protection rose from $27,000 per $10 million to $33,000 per $10 million in the last five days, GFI said.
Interestingly, default protection did not rise nearly as much for Citigroup Inc. (C : Citigroup, Inc
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Last: 49.97-1.11-2.17%
4:01pm 03/02/2007
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C49.97, -1.11, -2.2%) and Bank of America (BAC : bank of america corporation com
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Last: 50.01-0.37-0.73%
4:06pm 03/02/2007
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BAC50.01, -0.37, -0.7%) , two institutions which don't have heavy exposure to the sub-prime market, Fuhrman said.
Gimme Credit analyst Kathleen Shanley said that Merrill Lynch's forays into mortgage banking, including the recently-completed $1.3 billion acquisition of sub-prime mortgage originator First Franklin and the pending purchase of California- based First Republic Bank, "raise additional concerns about the company's potential vulnerability to a downturn in the markets led by weakness in the mortgage sector."
In a research note, she noted that The Wall Street Journal this week reported that regulators are growing concerned about slight loan loss reserves across the sector. "Merrill Lynch said it has no exposure to negative amortization loans, but it has over $11 billion of adjustable rate loans, including some with high loan-to-value ratios."
Merrill Lynch also is exposed to mortgage-related risk through its securitization activities, said the analyst. Last year, the company purchased $97.4 billion in cash flows related to securitizations of residential mortgage loans, up from $58.0 billion in 2005.
Shanley is sticking with an underperform rating on Merrill Lynch bonds.
Leslie Wines is a reporter for MarketWatch in New York.
