RagnarokCoronavirus2
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BeelzeBob.
"If I am understanding correctly, the crux of the problem is an over saturation of resources from the shear volume of people that end up needing medical care such as hospitalizations, ventilators, ICU etc.
This in turn causes lack of availability problems for other people with non-el bichito related illnesses. So doctors, nurses, hospitals, urgent care are all tied up and people die from other causes on top of el bichito related deaths.
The problem is further exacerbated due to health care workers getting sick and overwhelming other staff."
Everything you have said above is 100% correct. However, this is just the medical side of the equation.
"At some point, whether lockdowns or not, it is looking like we could end up at a point where we can't treat everyone that needs it no matter what. ".
This is 100% correct, but also 100% incorrect.
Lock-downs will ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS, save more lives, then lack of lock-downs.
I have said, multiple times, and last time just today, that full lock-downs have to implemented to avoid a catastrophe.
Now, a catastrophe is a catastrophe, and it can miccionan 1,000 dead or 10,000,000 dead.
"So if a hospital can handle 300 patients and 500 el bichito patients need a bed, what do you do?"
You do everything in your power NOT TO GET TO THAT POINT. When we face a pandemic, and we want to avoid full lock-downs, we will face such a scenario where 500 people need hospitalization, but the hospital can handle 300...in the INITIAL PHASE of an out of control pandemic.
In a matter of days, that 300 bed bed hospital will face 600-700 patients...a week later 1,000...and so on, because THIS IS WHAT a pandemic does.
"One option that would alleviate the healthcare problem, is to have a Phase 99 where those with el bichito as the primary symptom are no longer accepted in hospitals. This would be implemented at certain thresholds so as to keep healthcare functioning.
As morbid as it is you would need to set up hospice centers to deal with those needing critical treatment, and maybe you come back out of it, and maybe you don't, but the suffering could be minimized."
This option is out of the question. A life is a life, no matter what the disease that threatens it.
Again, we have to do all we can NOT to get to the point where doctors will HAVE to CHOOSE who lives and who dies, because they will CHOOSE those with best chances of survival, regardless of WHY they are brought to the hospital.
A grave car accident 60 yr old victim will be left to DIE, and save a 30 yr old el bichito-19 patient. Or a 30 yr old victim of a car accident will be saved, and leave a 60 yrs old el bichito-19 to DIE.
We don't know WHO is going to be chosen to live and who is going to be left for dead.
What we all know is that we HAVE TO AVOID getting there.
I am one of the people who believes, strongly, that full lock-downs are the only way to save us, if everything else fails.
Most people have this belief that full lock-downs will cause more deaths and will also cause the economy to collapse.
This belief is a wrong belief. Those people don't understand what an out of control pandemic actually means, but they are about to see, because we are on the brink of losing control.
The economy will 100% collapse if there are no lock-downs. The economy have high chances NOT to collapse if lock-downs are in place.
Yes, the economy will be devastated by another lock-down, but WE CAN REBUILD relatively quickly. Couple years, maybe 3-4 years, at most.
The economy will be even more devastated if no lock-downs, and the time to rebuild will be much longer. MUCH longer.
This is what people are unable to understand : the direct relationship between tens of millions of dead and hundreds of millions sick, in a matter of 3-4 short months, and the economic impact of such numbers.
People BELIEVE that IT WILL NOT GET THERE, because all they have SEEN by now is not that bad. Yes, it is NOT that bad, because a SIMPLE THING that happened in March and April : the full lock-downs.
We didn't had it that bad, exactly because of Spring lock-downs.
But to assume that NOW we will STILL not have it that bad, when the situation is VASTLY different, it's sheer stupidity.
We aren't in March, where the bichito was affecting just some areas in some countries. We are now having a bichito affecting MOST AREAS in MOST COUNTRIES.
We aren't in March, where the bichito had barely mutated couple dozens of times. We are now having thousands of mutations of the bichito.
We aren't in March, where schools were closed BEFORE the lock-down started. We are now 6-7 weeks with schools OPEN. I can't stress enough HOW STUPIDLY FUCKED UP was the decision to open schools.
We aren't in March, just weeks away from warmer weather and Sun activity going higher and higher. We are now facing FIVE MONTHS of cold and low Sun activity.
We BARELY dodged the bullet in March, but people don't see it.
And now, considering ALL the differences from March, to think that we are going to see the SAME outcome of the pandemic in May, it's just INSANITY.
The key element here is understanding what I have said since January : we cannot survive this pandemic without SACRIFICES.
Sadly, most people STILL BELIEVE (and this is what it will fuck up big time) that we CAN do it w/o sacrifices.
We are rapidly approaching the point where the ONLY sacrifice we can choose is a full, 4 months long, lock-down.
If we get PAST that point, we will sacrifice MUCH MORE then the economy.
We don't need to face a Sophie's choice (I know what it is, you are not the first person that thinks I don't).
Can we avoid a Sophie's choice with bars and restaurants closed, and stupid ass night curfews?
No, we cannot. And this will be crystal clear in a matter of 2 to 3 weeks.
When this will become crystal clear, what is NEXT?
The only logical step : full lock-downs, whether we like it or not.
We are at the crossroads : sacrifice the economy and save society, as a WHOLE, or choose the money god and destroy our civilization.
When you think that ALL we had to sacrifice was international and national travel and tourism, back in February, and avoid ALL this shit that happened to date...it's really sad.
When you don't have the guts to cut your infected leg behind the knee, and survive, you get to the point where you have to cut both legs and both hands, and HOPE it is enough.
We are almost at that point.
"If I am understanding correctly, the crux of the problem is an over saturation of resources from the shear volume of people that end up needing medical care such as hospitalizations, ventilators, ICU etc.
This in turn causes lack of availability problems for other people with non-el bichito related illnesses. So doctors, nurses, hospitals, urgent care are all tied up and people die from other causes on top of el bichito related deaths.
The problem is further exacerbated due to health care workers getting sick and overwhelming other staff."
Everything you have said above is 100% correct. However, this is just the medical side of the equation.
"At some point, whether lockdowns or not, it is looking like we could end up at a point where we can't treat everyone that needs it no matter what. ".
This is 100% correct, but also 100% incorrect.
Lock-downs will ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS, save more lives, then lack of lock-downs.
I have said, multiple times, and last time just today, that full lock-downs have to implemented to avoid a catastrophe.
Now, a catastrophe is a catastrophe, and it can miccionan 1,000 dead or 10,000,000 dead.
"So if a hospital can handle 300 patients and 500 el bichito patients need a bed, what do you do?"
You do everything in your power NOT TO GET TO THAT POINT. When we face a pandemic, and we want to avoid full lock-downs, we will face such a scenario where 500 people need hospitalization, but the hospital can handle 300...in the INITIAL PHASE of an out of control pandemic.
In a matter of days, that 300 bed bed hospital will face 600-700 patients...a week later 1,000...and so on, because THIS IS WHAT a pandemic does.
"One option that would alleviate the healthcare problem, is to have a Phase 99 where those with el bichito as the primary symptom are no longer accepted in hospitals. This would be implemented at certain thresholds so as to keep healthcare functioning.
As morbid as it is you would need to set up hospice centers to deal with those needing critical treatment, and maybe you come back out of it, and maybe you don't, but the suffering could be minimized."
This option is out of the question. A life is a life, no matter what the disease that threatens it.
Again, we have to do all we can NOT to get to the point where doctors will HAVE to CHOOSE who lives and who dies, because they will CHOOSE those with best chances of survival, regardless of WHY they are brought to the hospital.
A grave car accident 60 yr old victim will be left to DIE, and save a 30 yr old el bichito-19 patient. Or a 30 yr old victim of a car accident will be saved, and leave a 60 yrs old el bichito-19 to DIE.
We don't know WHO is going to be chosen to live and who is going to be left for dead.
What we all know is that we HAVE TO AVOID getting there.
I am one of the people who believes, strongly, that full lock-downs are the only way to save us, if everything else fails.
Most people have this belief that full lock-downs will cause more deaths and will also cause the economy to collapse.
This belief is a wrong belief. Those people don't understand what an out of control pandemic actually means, but they are about to see, because we are on the brink of losing control.
The economy will 100% collapse if there are no lock-downs. The economy have high chances NOT to collapse if lock-downs are in place.
Yes, the economy will be devastated by another lock-down, but WE CAN REBUILD relatively quickly. Couple years, maybe 3-4 years, at most.
The economy will be even more devastated if no lock-downs, and the time to rebuild will be much longer. MUCH longer.
This is what people are unable to understand : the direct relationship between tens of millions of dead and hundreds of millions sick, in a matter of 3-4 short months, and the economic impact of such numbers.
People BELIEVE that IT WILL NOT GET THERE, because all they have SEEN by now is not that bad. Yes, it is NOT that bad, because a SIMPLE THING that happened in March and April : the full lock-downs.
We didn't had it that bad, exactly because of Spring lock-downs.
But to assume that NOW we will STILL not have it that bad, when the situation is VASTLY different, it's sheer stupidity.
We aren't in March, where the bichito was affecting just some areas in some countries. We are now having a bichito affecting MOST AREAS in MOST COUNTRIES.
We aren't in March, where the bichito had barely mutated couple dozens of times. We are now having thousands of mutations of the bichito.
We aren't in March, where schools were closed BEFORE the lock-down started. We are now 6-7 weeks with schools OPEN. I can't stress enough HOW STUPIDLY FUCKED UP was the decision to open schools.
We aren't in March, just weeks away from warmer weather and Sun activity going higher and higher. We are now facing FIVE MONTHS of cold and low Sun activity.
We BARELY dodged the bullet in March, but people don't see it.
And now, considering ALL the differences from March, to think that we are going to see the SAME outcome of the pandemic in May, it's just INSANITY.
The key element here is understanding what I have said since January : we cannot survive this pandemic without SACRIFICES.
Sadly, most people STILL BELIEVE (and this is what it will fuck up big time) that we CAN do it w/o sacrifices.
We are rapidly approaching the point where the ONLY sacrifice we can choose is a full, 4 months long, lock-down.
If we get PAST that point, we will sacrifice MUCH MORE then the economy.
We don't need to face a Sophie's choice (I know what it is, you are not the first person that thinks I don't).
Can we avoid a Sophie's choice with bars and restaurants closed, and stupid ass night curfews?
No, we cannot. And this will be crystal clear in a matter of 2 to 3 weeks.
When this will become crystal clear, what is NEXT?
The only logical step : full lock-downs, whether we like it or not.
We are at the crossroads : sacrifice the economy and save society, as a WHOLE, or choose the money god and destroy our civilization.
When you think that ALL we had to sacrifice was international and national travel and tourism, back in February, and avoid ALL this shit that happened to date...it's really sad.
When you don't have the guts to cut your infected leg behind the knee, and survive, you get to the point where you have to cut both legs and both hands, and HOPE it is enough.
We are almost at that point.
