No se si me he pasado copiando, pero el rumano ya a puesto esto:
October 15th, 2020.
The update that I have planned, but didn't wanted to make.
Some excerpts from previous update, on October 10th.:
"Compiling all the numbers, from testing capacity, number of cases, asymptomatic ratio, Europe today is on comparable levels to Europe at the peak of the Spring wave."
"What is going to happen in the next 6 months, is influenced, in no particular order, by the ***owing factors :
-political decision to avoid full lock-downs
-the start of the cold season (especially less sunlight, temperature drop not as much important) in Northern Hemisphere.
-disbelief in the bichito
-strong belief in conspiracy theories
-inability of westerners to face bad times, and inability for behavioral changes."
"There will be no full lock-downs by the end of this month."
"Most hospitals ICUs, across Europe, will be full by November. By the end of October, about 5% of the general population will contract the bichito, the rest of 20% will contract the bichito after October. While most cases will benefit from ICU treatment this month, virtually everyone else in November in December, will not."
"Again, this is just numbers. Math. It cannot predict human reaction to such a catastrophe. And what it cannot predict is if we will only get to 20-25% infected people, or more...because it can easily be more.
The longer full lock-downs are avoided, the more people will get infected, the faster hospitals will get full, and the more sick and dead we will have.
The U.S. is 3 weeks behind Europe. What is in Europe now, it will be in the U.S. at the end of October.
And this is where I think we are heading."
Looking at U.K.'s Tier 3 scenario, Macron's address to the nation, Netherlands so called "hard measures" and whole bunch of leaders arguing in the favor of avoid full lock-downs at all price, facing a catastrophe on par or even worse then Spanish Flu is now reality.
October 15th is the date for "make or break", as I called it. The date when I expected to clearly see what was the path chosen by our leaders.
Many times before I said that my model and my predictions are based on human stupidity, and on politicians choosing the worst possible option.
They did it again. They chose the worst possible option : betting on saving the economy and let the bichito spread, in the hope that "it won't be that bad".
So, let's see HOW BAD can it get, and let's see if it will actually get THAT BAD.
We cannot rely on the official numbers of cases and deaths. We can only rely on the official number of hospitalizations and ICU usage.
But I am not going to talk about any of the above. What I am going to talk about is the official data on EXCESS deaths, from January until mid-September 2020. The number of excess deaths can overwhelmingly be attributed to the current crisis : both deaths caused BY the bichito and BECAUSE of the bichito, due to hospitals being overwhelmed.
The data I used is from several European countries and the U.S.
The selected European countries for analyzing the excess deaths data are : Spain, Italy, France with England&Wales., as the worst hit countries in Europe, Germany (due to their having the best medical system in Europe for a pandemic), Sweden (as the love child of WHO) and Switzerland (as the country who had a negative factor of excess deaths).
Why haven't I selected other countries in Europe?
Simply because we are facing the scenario of no full lock-downs, which means that most important hospitals (by bed and ICU capacity) will be overwhelmed, and the data from Italy, Spain, France and most of the U.K. for excess deaths is the most reliable.
However, not all hospitals will be overwhelmed, and there is still a lot of population living outside major urban area, so I chose to add Germany to the pool as well.
Adding Switzerland was because even if it is a tourist and business destination, they managed a negative growth in excess deaths, as well as adding to the total general population to get to a number, for Europe, of almost 50% of the entire population.
The U.S. was selected because it is a mixture of social, political, faith, etc., it is the biggest western country in the world, and faced a whole bunch of various measures all over their nation, from full lock-downs to no measures at all but some mask recomandations.
I did not chose to add any other country, for the obvious reason that their data is highly unreliable or doesn't even exists, like the entire African continent, the whole of India and China, Latin and South America.
I did not put South Korea in the pool, because of a very simple reason : they excess deaths are a negative 60%, which I am sorry, but it is BS.
Anyway, on to the actual numbers.
You can all check this at : [link to ourworldindata.org (secure)]
Other useful links, but not as comprehensive :
[link to
www.euromomo.eu (secure)]
[link to
www.ons.gov.uk (secure)]
[link to ec.europa.eu (secure)]
[link to
www.economist.com (secure)]
[link to
www.europeandatajournalism.eu (secure)]
Please bare in mind that the numbers you will read are, in the first part, the best case scenario, and in the last part, the worst case scenario.
I will let each and everyone of you to chose to believe any of them, or none of them.
After calculating the excess deaths, for every week, in the selected countries, the number of excess deaths, compared to the normal death rate, is 9.4%., for a population of 663 million people, 328 million in the U.S. and 335 million in the selected 7 countries in Europe.
These 7 selected countries represent roughly half of the European continent (except Russia).
Going further, the weekly number of deaths in the previous years, are 57,000 for the U.S. and 121,000 for Europe, with half of those for the selected 7 countries, so 60,500 weekly deaths, in previous years.
The number are similar, because U.S. and Europe are virtually the same type of populations and political organizations.
To make things easier to calculate, the weekly deaths, per 100,000 people, in previous years, was 17.2 in the U.S. and 18.05 in Europe (except Russia), resulting in a median number of 17.775 deaths per 100,000 people, in Europe (except Russia) and the U.S.
The excess deaths, being 9.4%, when applied to 17.775 deaths, per week, per 100,000 people, in the previous years, results in the golden number (which will be the base for what we can expect to happen without full lock-downs) : 1.67 excess deaths per week, per 100,000 people, in the U.S. and Europe (except Russia), in the first 37 weeks of 2020.
1.67 excess deaths, per week, per 100,000 people in a population of 663 million (U.S.+ 7 selected European countries).
Next, I made a split, in groups, of most world population, as it ***ows :
U.S. + Canada + Europe + Russia, in Group A.
India and the entire African continent in Group B.
China, as a separate entity.
Latin and South America in Group C.
I did not considered Japan, SK, Taiwan and Singapore in my calculations, because these countries are not relevant in the equation. They are testing whether you like it or not, they lock-down anything and everything the second they find a case, they have a population that understand what is going on and abides to the rules.
Very different approach to the pandemic, since the start.
The countries in Group A experienced the 1.67 deaths / week / 100,000, in the first 37 weeks of 2020.
China, even if being the most aggressive in lock-downs, they faced the same overwhelmed hospitals and the scarcity of medical care and resources. Still, they most likely fare better then Group A countries, but not much better.
Most likely, China's golden number is 1.6 excess deaths / week / 100,000 people, in the first 37 weeks of 2020.
Group B. India and Africa. I can only make an educated guess here, considering that, first, in terms of contagion, they are way worse them Group A countries and China, and secondly, in terms of medical care, generally speaking, they are MUCH worse the Group A countries and China.
I will be on the optimistic side here, and consider that the golden number for Group B (India and Africa) is twice the number of Group A and China, somewhere around 3.25 excess deaths / week / 100,000 people, in the first week of 2020.
Group C (Latin and S.America) are most likely about 50% worse then Group A countries. The golden number for Group C is probably 2.4 excess deaths / week / 100,000 people.
Again, these are the optimistic numbers. We all know that India and Africa are much worse then just twice the U.S. and Europe, and Latin and South America are most likely higher then just 50% worse then U.S. and Europe.
Regardless, we now have something that we can work with, even if it on the low end of the spectrum.
After making all the calculation, for each Group, in the first 37 weeks of 2020, we registered 5,555,309 extra deaths, for a total population of 6,149,000 people, as it ***ows :
687,719 for Group A (1.113 billion people)
824,656 for China (1.393 billion people)
1,462,240 for Africa (1.216 billion people)
1,626,982 for India (1.353 billion people)
953,712 for Latin & S.America (1.074 billion people)
Middle East and South East Asia are similar to Latin & S.America golden number, and their population represents almost the rest until 7.8 billion. However, Japan, SK, Singapore, Taiwan, Australia and NZ are having a positive effect on the golden number for the rest of the world population (1.651 billion people), lowering it to roughly 2 excess deaths / week / 100,000 people, which gives us the next number :
1,221,740 for Middle East, S.E. Asia, and the rest.
In the first 37 weeks of 2020, the world registered, at best, around 6,777,049 excess deaths, deaths that are almost all caused by the bichito, or because the medical crisis created by the bichito.
Ok, so, we have this 6.777 million excess deaths in the first 37 weeks of 2020.
But how many people got the bichito?
According to various CDC entities and WHO, 10% of the world population contracted the bichito. My estimate is that closer to 15% of the world population contracted the bichito.
My model is taking into consideration the start of the pandemic in November 2019. WHO and various CDCs, January 2020.
Most likely, the reality is that around 12% of the world population contracted the bichito in the first 37 weeks of 2020. And that is 936 million people.
Now we have what we can say, with high degree of confidence, an educated guess of what the INITIAL part of the pandemic did to us :
6.777 million dead for 936 million people : 0.72% excess death rate (caused by the bichito and the overwhelmed hospitals).
Before I go any further, I want you all to understand that the above number is highly unlikely (India, Africa, Latin & S. America, S.E. Asia, former soviet republics, had it worse then what I assumed), and the reality is that we were at roughly 1% excess death rate for the first 37 weeks of 2020, which is over 9 million extra deaths.
All of the above under a world-wide lock-down of 2 months, at the BEGINNING of the pandemic, and the END of winter season.
This is highly important to understand what is coming for the world.
This is the first part of the update.
I know you all are now making scenarios, based on this 1% excess death rate, applied to 7.8 billion people, and the result is 78 million dead, which is, mathematically, economically and sociologically, not that bad.
WW2 killed 3% of the world population. Spanish Flu also 3% of the world population...so, 1% is not that bad, right?
WRONG.
If by some miracle, we want to keep this 1%, we will need another 7 YEARS (until we get to 80% contagion), each year with 2 world-wide full lock-downs of 2 months each in Spring and Winter.
Clearly, we won't do this. And even if we WANT to do this, we can't...because this is all based on the INITIAL part of the pandemic.
We are past that, and we can't go back.
Ok, onto the second part of the update.
What is in the "store" next? And by next, I miccionan the next 12 months, until October 2021. We won't have a vaccine. We will have better treatments, but they won't make a dent in what is coming, because the governments CHOSE the path of no full lock-downs.
To understand what we are facing, we have to go back to excess deaths, but this time we will look at the excess deaths in the worst hit countries, and among those, to the areas where the hospitals got overwhelmed, because this is what we will experience, if no full lock-downs.
The excess deaths in the first 37 weeks of 2020 represented a median number. The golden number was also a median number. Those numbers only helped us to see what HAD HAPPEN.
To see what WILL happen, is to see the excess death number in the span of 4 weeks of hardest hit areas in the Spring (Italy, Spain, U.K. and France).
The above areas registered an excess death of 100% and OVER (Lombardy and Madrid up to 400% excess deaths).
It is unwise to apply a 400% excess death rate, to the entire world, just because of Lombardy and Madrid. But a 100% excess death rate, registered across Spain, Italy, France, the U.K. and NYC, is more then realistic.
If we do that, and I see no reason not to, since there is no plan for full lock-downs, we no longer talk about 9.4% excess death rate, or 1.67 excess deaths / week / 100,000 people.
We are talking about roughly 9 times this number. I have always said that overwhelmed hospitals will cause 10 times more dead then the bichito itself does.
Still, this is the correct number only after the entire population gets sick, and we don't know when this will happen.
To be more precise in the evaluation, we have to lower the excess deaths of 15.3 (for Europe and the U.S.) to a more realistic number, which is about half, considering that metro areas will actually face such excess deaths, and the metro areas count for roughly half the population of the world.
So, the golden number for what is coming, is roughly 7.8 excess deaths / week / 100,000 people, for the next 22 weeks, up to April 2021.
This is a median number, and the peak will see mush higher excess deaths, then the upward and downward slopes.
But overall, this is what we are going to experience in the next 22 weeks : 7.8 excess deaths / week / 100,000 people, all cause by the bichito and because of overwhelmed hospitals.
If we consider the population of Europe, this will miccionan roughly 43,680 excess deaths per week, from November until April 2021, or a total of 873,600 dead in 20 weeks, or roughly 1.4% of the population killed by the bichito or lack of medical care.
Same will be for the U.S., 1.4% of the population killed by the bichito or lack of medical care.
But that is just for November to April 2021, to a second wave that is SIMILAR to the first wave...which clearly won't be the case.
The second wave, in the absence of full lock-downs will be at least twice as big, if not 3 times as big as the first one.
We're talking 20 weeks here, not 6 weeks, as it was in the Spring. We're talking a bichito widespread much higher then the spring. We have no idea how many people will contract the bichito by April, but with lock-downs we got to a 5% in the spring, in 6 weeks.
How many will get it in the next 20 weeks? 15% is a MINIMUM. My own model shows 20% to 25% of the population in the northern hemisphere will get the bichito by April, if no full lock-downs.
The treatments won't matter, at all...if people cannot be treated, since most hospitals will get full by the end of this months, across Europe.
When I said that we can potentially see more dead then WW2, I wasn't joking.
The official death count from the bichito is 1.1 million. The excess deaths in the first 37 weeks of 2020 are over 9 million.
We will EASILY get to a 2% population loss, in the next 22 weeks, and another 1% by October 2021.
And this is a scenario where only 20-25% of the population gets the bichito by April 2021, and another 10% by October 2021.
We would not even be HALF the way to curb this pandemic in October 2021.
I can't even quantify what is going to be when the peak will hit, in mid-November. My mind cannot comprehend that the governments chose this path. The numbers are WORSE then Spanish Flu. I am unable to visualize what the impact will be.
But we will see it. We will live it. The human loss of life will be insane. The number of people out of workforce in the next months will be tremendous. The economical impact of such a shortage of workforce will be much bigger then a 4 month full lock-down, and this is just people getting SICK...not those that will see their workplace shut down all of a sudden, because even if we won't full lock-down, every workplace with cases WILL BE shut down.
I hope I am wrong, my math is stupid, and based on wrong assumptions.
U.S. resurgence, U.S. number of epicenters, Brazil plateau, Europe second wave, schools impact, Eastern Europe being much harder hit now,...all of those things I have predicted to happen WEEKS and sometimes MONTHS before they did.
Please choose to believe what you want to believe. Hope that I am wrong. Hope that even if I am right, the society will get past the next months in one piece, because I have no idea how people will react to what is coming.
It can get very bad, very quick, in less then a month from now.
It will probably happen.
God help us.
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