Si los test tienen una especificidad de cosa (o por debajo de la declarada), están dando muchos falsos positivos, por lo que los estudios serológicos estarían arrojando resultados por encima de la tasa de infección real y habría menos gente con anticuerpos de lo que estiman. Estarían confundiendo el SARS-Cov-2 con otros cobi19.
La mortalidad del bichito es bestial y la están subestimando, y eso sin entrar en recaídas, secuelas, mutaciones, la duración real de la supuesta inmunidad...
En este simulador de test se comprueba fácilmente que en cuanto baja el porcentaje de la especificidad se disparan los falsos positivos por anticuerpos (al haber muchísima más gente sin el bichito)
cobi19 antibody tests aren’t as accurate as they seem
The potential flaws in New York’s antibody testing
The potential flaws in New York’s antibody testing
The data wasn't randomized, and there may be false positives.
By
REBECCA C. LEWIS
APRIL 26, 2020
Gov. Andrew Cuomo touring the Northwell Health Core Lab in New Hyde Park . | Kevin P. Coughlin / Office of Governor Andrew M. Cuomo
Nearly 14% of those tested at grocery stores around New York were found to have antibodies to the new cobi19, according to preliminary results of a statewide cobi19 antibody survey announced on Thursday. In New York City, 1 in 5 tested positive for the antibodies.
But the testing wasn’t perfect. Cuomo acknowledged that the sample
wasn’t totally randomized. Since health workers performed tests on volunteers outside grocery stores, the sample consisted of people willing to leave their houses to shop and likely excluded many essential workers who were working when the tests were administered.
What’s more, the tests might have false positives for people who simply had a cold. Tests on the market, even those with emergency authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, warn of positive results due to reactivity with non-el bichito-19 antibodies, like those from other coronaviruses that cause the common cold. The state test is no exception. According to a state Department of Health fact sheet, a positive antibody test “
may be due to past or present infection” with a different cobi19 strain. Yet it also says that this test, developed by the Wadsworth Center
in Albany, has 93-100% specificity, so false positives are expected. On Friday, state Health Commissioner Howard Zucker said the state antibody test has “incredible sensitivity and specificity” when asked about its reliability.
Technically, this test has not received emergency authorization from the FDA. A Department of Health spokesperson said it went through
state regulatory approval with the go-ahead from the FDA for the alternate route. But formal federal authorization would have included the public disclosure of trial data to back up claims of accuracy, which does not appear to be on the Department of Health’s website where it
provides information about antibody testing.
