Interesante artículo que asegura que a los chinos ya se les han hinchado los bemoles y se ven suficientemente fuertes, y va a empezar una "guerra fría" con USA (a lo USA vs URRSS). Lectura interesante.
Mineweb - China and U.S. heading for a cold war? What impact on gold? - POLITICAL ECONOMY
NO MORE MR NICE GUY
China and U.S. heading for a cold war? What impact on gold?
Some observers feel that China may be looking to retaliate over recent U.S. political statements and moves and a recent Chinese poll suggests it and the U.S. may be moving towards a ‘cold war'. Such political uncertainties could have a positive impact on the gold price.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Sunday , 07 Feb 2010
LONDON -
Chinese and U.S relations are at a low ebb and continuing to deteriorate fast so it seems and an article in today's Sunday Times in London says many Chinese hawks are promoting a cold war. Indeed things appear to have got so bad that military leaders in China are preparing for the possibility of a limited armed conflict, possibly over Taiwan or Korea, although this seems very unlikely.
China has always been unhappy with U.S. criticisms over its human rights record, but a number of recent diplomatic disagreements have escalated the feelings within China that it should be taking more action against the U.S. if only to show its displeasure.
The Sunday Times report noted that just under 55% of Chinese questioned in a recent poll by a state-run newspaper felt that a cold war would break out between China and the U.S. China has been beset by major criticisms from the U.S. on Taiwan, Tibet, internet freedom, global warming and trade - and most recently the U.S decision to sell $6.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan may have really brought matters to a head. Indeed some Chinese feel that the country should retaliate by selling arms to states hostile to the U.S. in return.
Should matters deteriorate further one suspects that it will also not have escaped Chinese politicians' thoughts that their country may currently hold the whip hand with the U.S. in the economic sector. While China has hereto relied on western exports for much of its trade, the past year has seen a sea change with exports falling because of the western financial crisis, but in part being replaced internally as more and more Chinese become part of a consumer society. China's huge trade surpluses and foreign reserves give it a substantial cushion with which to ride out any ensuing economic battle between the two superpowers and while the U.S. may still be a richer and more technologically advanced society, its economy is perceived as weak, and China's dollar trillions in its reserves suggest that if it wishes to, say, destabilise the dollar by switching an ever growing proportion of its reserves into other assets, including gold, it could do so relatively simply.
The first step in such a move, at least as far as gold is concerned, could be another announcement of a substantial increase in Chinese gold reserves. It is assumed by most analysts now that China is putting the country's gold production - and China is the world no. 1 gold producer - into its reserves, but does not announce this externally until and unless it is politically expedient to do so. An announcement of say a 500 tonne increase in reserves would give a revival fillip to the gold price and could knock the dollar. If China were also to buy up the remaining IMF gold on sale, this would do likewise. China has kept out of purchasing IMF gold so far as it has not felt the need given its own gold production, but to cock a political snook at the U.S. Administration it may perhaps re-enter this market given a gold price rise is seen as a de facto devaluation of the U.S. dollar and a declining dollar would be yet another inflation trigger to add to that created by the pumping of huge amounts of paper money into the U.S. domestic economy. While inflation has yet to rear its head, most economists feel this is inevitable at some stage and an accelerated dollar fall would just bring the inevitable closer.
Of course selling a significant number of U.S. dollars for other assets than gold would also be effective in destabilising the dollar, but could be seen as a more direct attack on the greenback which may not appeal to the same extent, at least at this stage. Buying gold is just a neat way of achieving the same effect, and given the small proportion of gold in China's reserves compared with the U.S. and major European nations, could be presented as a logical move.
While destabilising the dollar in this manner wouldn't in itself be a declaration of a cold war, it would serve as a warning shot across the bows to try and persuade the U.S. Administration to take an easier line on its dealings with China. But the U.S. may well not be prepared to do so. President Obama has been almost treated with disdain by the Chinese and will feel the need to demonstrate that he is a strong leader by overtly standing up to their pressures. This is not perhaps conducive to warding off tit-for-tat moves by the two countries' governments and relations may well get worse in the near future before they start to get better. Ironically the Communist power may have found it easier to work with a far more right wing regime like that of President Bush, than with the current U.S. Administration.
A growing political and economic dispute between the U.S. and China, coupled with all the other financial problems affecting the global community, could bring gold into focus again, particularly if the yellow metal is also seen as a real, or potential, economic weapon. But, bear in mind also that severe U.S. dollar devaluation may not be in the best interests of the Chinese given that so much of the country's huge reserves are in U.S. dollar denominated assets. Even so flexing its economic muscle could be attractive to China just to make a point. When one has reserves in trillions of dollars, losing a little as a political bargaining point is no big deal.
Mineweb - China and U.S. heading for a cold war? What impact on gold? - POLITICAL ECONOMY
NO MORE MR NICE GUY
China and U.S. heading for a cold war? What impact on gold?
Some observers feel that China may be looking to retaliate over recent U.S. political statements and moves and a recent Chinese poll suggests it and the U.S. may be moving towards a ‘cold war'. Such political uncertainties could have a positive impact on the gold price.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Sunday , 07 Feb 2010
LONDON -
Chinese and U.S relations are at a low ebb and continuing to deteriorate fast so it seems and an article in today's Sunday Times in London says many Chinese hawks are promoting a cold war. Indeed things appear to have got so bad that military leaders in China are preparing for the possibility of a limited armed conflict, possibly over Taiwan or Korea, although this seems very unlikely.
China has always been unhappy with U.S. criticisms over its human rights record, but a number of recent diplomatic disagreements have escalated the feelings within China that it should be taking more action against the U.S. if only to show its displeasure.
The Sunday Times report noted that just under 55% of Chinese questioned in a recent poll by a state-run newspaper felt that a cold war would break out between China and the U.S. China has been beset by major criticisms from the U.S. on Taiwan, Tibet, internet freedom, global warming and trade - and most recently the U.S decision to sell $6.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan may have really brought matters to a head. Indeed some Chinese feel that the country should retaliate by selling arms to states hostile to the U.S. in return.
Should matters deteriorate further one suspects that it will also not have escaped Chinese politicians' thoughts that their country may currently hold the whip hand with the U.S. in the economic sector. While China has hereto relied on western exports for much of its trade, the past year has seen a sea change with exports falling because of the western financial crisis, but in part being replaced internally as more and more Chinese become part of a consumer society. China's huge trade surpluses and foreign reserves give it a substantial cushion with which to ride out any ensuing economic battle between the two superpowers and while the U.S. may still be a richer and more technologically advanced society, its economy is perceived as weak, and China's dollar trillions in its reserves suggest that if it wishes to, say, destabilise the dollar by switching an ever growing proportion of its reserves into other assets, including gold, it could do so relatively simply.
The first step in such a move, at least as far as gold is concerned, could be another announcement of a substantial increase in Chinese gold reserves. It is assumed by most analysts now that China is putting the country's gold production - and China is the world no. 1 gold producer - into its reserves, but does not announce this externally until and unless it is politically expedient to do so. An announcement of say a 500 tonne increase in reserves would give a revival fillip to the gold price and could knock the dollar. If China were also to buy up the remaining IMF gold on sale, this would do likewise. China has kept out of purchasing IMF gold so far as it has not felt the need given its own gold production, but to cock a political snook at the U.S. Administration it may perhaps re-enter this market given a gold price rise is seen as a de facto devaluation of the U.S. dollar and a declining dollar would be yet another inflation trigger to add to that created by the pumping of huge amounts of paper money into the U.S. domestic economy. While inflation has yet to rear its head, most economists feel this is inevitable at some stage and an accelerated dollar fall would just bring the inevitable closer.
Of course selling a significant number of U.S. dollars for other assets than gold would also be effective in destabilising the dollar, but could be seen as a more direct attack on the greenback which may not appeal to the same extent, at least at this stage. Buying gold is just a neat way of achieving the same effect, and given the small proportion of gold in China's reserves compared with the U.S. and major European nations, could be presented as a logical move.
While destabilising the dollar in this manner wouldn't in itself be a declaration of a cold war, it would serve as a warning shot across the bows to try and persuade the U.S. Administration to take an easier line on its dealings with China. But the U.S. may well not be prepared to do so. President Obama has been almost treated with disdain by the Chinese and will feel the need to demonstrate that he is a strong leader by overtly standing up to their pressures. This is not perhaps conducive to warding off tit-for-tat moves by the two countries' governments and relations may well get worse in the near future before they start to get better. Ironically the Communist power may have found it easier to work with a far more right wing regime like that of President Bush, than with the current U.S. Administration.
A growing political and economic dispute between the U.S. and China, coupled with all the other financial problems affecting the global community, could bring gold into focus again, particularly if the yellow metal is also seen as a real, or potential, economic weapon. But, bear in mind also that severe U.S. dollar devaluation may not be in the best interests of the Chinese given that so much of the country's huge reserves are in U.S. dollar denominated assets. Even so flexing its economic muscle could be attractive to China just to make a point. When one has reserves in trillions of dollars, losing a little as a political bargaining point is no big deal.
