Me too. Pásala
Cuidado con los mercados financieros !!!
- Autor del tema barcel
- Fecha de inicio
:Comentario de Gail Tverberg en su blog:
I think we are very close to the edge. The question is whether the powers that be can hold the problems off for a little while longer (months or a year or two), with perhaps QE4, or checks directly to the population, or some novel approach.
I see one of the weak points being banks, and their vulnerability to derivatives problems and debt default problems. We are likely to see more debt default problems in the next six months. Derivatives can have problems whenever there are huge swings in financial variables. Bankruptcies and defaults can trigger derivatives problems as well. Some of the derivates have been moved out of banks, but not all of them.
Another weak point is international trade, which already seems to be shrinking.
Another weak point is oil exporters. I read this morning that Iraq plans to cut off its investment in new production, starting in January. I am sure that there are other oil exporters getting to the same point. There are also the problems of keeping populations pacified, if an oil exporting country needs to cut its budget. Syria and Egypt are both former oil exporters, with huge budget problems. When these people want to leave, this creates a huge international refugee problem. I read one account that suggested that some of the immigrants today are from Egypt, rather than Syria.
---------- Post added 18-sep-2015 at 22:12 ----------
Otro comentario escondido de Gail Tverberg:
We don’t know anything 100% for certain, other than what it is like right now. I don’t think anyone should do anything rash.
There seems to be a distinct possibility that the world economic situation will turn downward in the next year. We can’t know exactly how this will work out–we haven’t been through it before, in this form. The most likely scenario would seem to involve banking and international trade disruptions, leading to a loss of jobs, energy products, and spare parts. Electricity will disappear in the same timeframe as oil, but not necessarily as soon as a year–it could take quite a while longer. This kind of thing is hard to prepare for, although some people will choose to try to prepare. If you choose to prepare, you need to understand what you are likely up against.
There is widespread belief in the “energy prices will just go higher, and if we use less of it, we will be fine” scenario. I think this view is not correct. This is not the way an integrated system can be expected to work. In fact, oil and commodity prices in general are low now. It is hard to see where all the funding would come for the expected big turn-around in prices. This is the scenario that allows for a not too difficult transition to a more agricultural-based world.
I think we are very close to the edge. The question is whether the powers that be can hold the problems off for a little while longer (months or a year or two), with perhaps QE4, or checks directly to the population, or some novel approach.
I see one of the weak points being banks, and their vulnerability to derivatives problems and debt default problems. We are likely to see more debt default problems in the next six months. Derivatives can have problems whenever there are huge swings in financial variables. Bankruptcies and defaults can trigger derivatives problems as well. Some of the derivates have been moved out of banks, but not all of them.
Another weak point is international trade, which already seems to be shrinking.
Another weak point is oil exporters. I read this morning that Iraq plans to cut off its investment in new production, starting in January. I am sure that there are other oil exporters getting to the same point. There are also the problems of keeping populations pacified, if an oil exporting country needs to cut its budget. Syria and Egypt are both former oil exporters, with huge budget problems. When these people want to leave, this creates a huge international refugee problem. I read one account that suggested that some of the immigrants today are from Egypt, rather than Syria.
---------- Post added 18-sep-2015 at 22:12 ----------
Otro comentario escondido de Gail Tverberg:
We don’t know anything 100% for certain, other than what it is like right now. I don’t think anyone should do anything rash.
There seems to be a distinct possibility that the world economic situation will turn downward in the next year. We can’t know exactly how this will work out–we haven’t been through it before, in this form. The most likely scenario would seem to involve banking and international trade disruptions, leading to a loss of jobs, energy products, and spare parts. Electricity will disappear in the same timeframe as oil, but not necessarily as soon as a year–it could take quite a while longer. This kind of thing is hard to prepare for, although some people will choose to try to prepare. If you choose to prepare, you need to understand what you are likely up against.
There is widespread belief in the “energy prices will just go higher, and if we use less of it, we will be fine” scenario. I think this view is not correct. This is not the way an integrated system can be expected to work. In fact, oil and commodity prices in general are low now. It is hard to see where all the funding would come for the expected big turn-around in prices. This is the scenario that allows for a not too difficult transition to a more agricultural-based world.
sociedadponzi
never settle
que webos ha pasado hoy?
* catalunya es la misma de ayer
* la no subida de tipos quiza?
* volkswagen?
* catalunya es la misma de ayer
* la no subida de tipos quiza?
* volkswagen?
Nada
De momento estamos esperando a Mario... no ha pasado mucho. Pero si lo dice por el rebote, el índice alemán estaba así... y era posible lo que ha hecho.
Y el índice de hispanistán estaba así... y también era posible lo que hizo
De momento estamos esperando a Mario... no ha pasado mucho. Pero si lo dice por el rebote, el índice alemán estaba así... y era posible lo que ha hecho.
Y el índice de hispanistán estaba así... y también era posible lo que hizo
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Parece que la cosa se pone hoy también interesante ¿? Dow Jones casi bajando de 16 000 y SP500 en 1800 (no tengo mucha idea de mercados, pero por lo leído en este hilo...)
Dow Jones
16,085.70 -228.97 (-1.40%)
S&P 500
1,892.82 -38.52 (-1.99%)
Dow Jones
16,085.70 -228.97 (-1.40%)
S&P 500
1,892.82 -38.52 (-1.99%)
bizc8 borracho
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Como Japón y China cierren hoy (mañana) con -2% (o más)...., preparar el culete.....
.... caca, pedo, trastero, pissss......
.... cuñaaaaa....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
.... caca, pedo, trastero, pissss......
.... cuñaaaaa....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BRAXTON
Madmaxista
Vaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamossssssssssssssssssssss...que nos vamosssssssssssssssssssssss....¡¡¡¡¡
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Dow Jones.........16,001.89.......... -312.78.... (-1.92%)
S&P 500.........1,881.77............ -49.57....(-2.57%)
Shanghai............3,037.49............ -63.27.....(-2.04%)
Nikkei 225 ................16,930.84.......... -714.27.....(-4.05%)
:
:
S&P 500.........1,881.77............ -49.57....(-2.57%)
Shanghai............3,037.49............ -63.27.....(-2.04%)
Nikkei 225 ................16,930.84.......... -714.27.....(-4.05%)
:
:
Última edición:
bizc8 borracho
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Los medios de (in)comunicación centran el problema en el asunto de los coches trucados...., pero intentan tapar el hecho de que las bolsas están cayendo (y bastante) a diario....,
..., y están cayendo por la enorme burbuja de dinero-papel que hay en los mercados (los cuales van a petar de un momento a otro)....,
...., y los medios no dicen nada, porque ellos (los listos, los que saben, los dioses)..., están sacando (saqueando) dinero, ahora que los precios de las acciones aún están altitos...,
...., es decir, podríamos llamarlo "retirada (de efectivo) silenciosa..."
....., últimamente, por ejemplo, ya no hay en tv 24h sobre las 09:10h eso de; "nos vamos a la bolsa de madritt.... ", ya que hoy por ejemplo era un día indicado para ir allí en directo, ya que la bolsa ha abierto cayendo más de un 1,2%, y las asiáticas han cerrado con una caída de más del 3%....., lo dicho;
"RETIRADA SILENCIOSA...." ¡¡¡¡.... OJO AL PARCHE.... !!!!
.....
..., y están cayendo por la enorme burbuja de dinero-papel que hay en los mercados (los cuales van a petar de un momento a otro)....,
...., y los medios no dicen nada, porque ellos (los listos, los que saben, los dioses)..., están sacando (saqueando) dinero, ahora que los precios de las acciones aún están altitos...,
...., es decir, podríamos llamarlo "retirada (de efectivo) silenciosa..."
....., últimamente, por ejemplo, ya no hay en tv 24h sobre las 09:10h eso de; "nos vamos a la bolsa de madritt.... ", ya que hoy por ejemplo era un día indicado para ir allí en directo, ya que la bolsa ha abierto cayendo más de un 1,2%, y las asiáticas han cerrado con una caída de más del 3%....., lo dicho;
"RETIRADA SILENCIOSA...." ¡¡¡¡.... OJO AL PARCHE.... !!!!
.....
Última edición:
El Dax en verde, ahí va lo que quedaba de la pensión de mis nietos y la sanidad pública de mis bisnietos.
y encima para cerrar en rrojo, un hospital menos y este año sin calefacción en los institutos.
y encima para cerrar en rrojo, un hospital menos y este año sin calefacción en los institutos.
Última edición:
Dow -1,92, S&P -4.69 a tres cuartos de hora del cierre.
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Al final han cerrado para arriba, pero todo ha sido en el último instante que han cambiado la tendencia. El DowJones ha recuperado los 16 000, pero el SP500 sigue por debajo de los 1 900
Dow Jones
16,049.13 +47.24 (0.30%)
S&P 500
1,884.09 +2.32 (0.12%)
Dow Jones
16,049.13 +47.24 (0.30%)
S&P 500
1,884.09 +2.32 (0.12%)
