Faldo
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 14 Dic 2006
- Mensajes
- 9.217
- Fruta
- 16.371
WALLSTREETBETS TO DA MOON! Hold Paco, Hold.
- Autor del tema marvinhess
- Fecha de inicio
ciberobrero
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 15 Abr 2017
- Mensajes
- 32.683
- Fruta
- 85.234
Enmarquese
Nico
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 6 Sep 2006
- Mensajes
- 54.611
- Fruta
- 190.420
Recordemos que los cortos que compren hoy van a intentar no perder dinero vendiendo , lo que lleva a una situación irreal de precios que se mantiene (o se agrava)
Si. Todo depende de cuantos TIBURONES haya ya en la piscina. Es demasiado goloso para perderse una tajada y han de estar metiendo mano los fondos más exóticos.
De todos modos el hecho de que haya POCO VOLUMEN y PRECIO ESTABLE (estable de modo relativo, entiéndase, en el rango diario), habla de que aquí están llevando la cosa de modo ordenado y en la dirección que quieren.
OYeah
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 16 Nov 2017
- Mensajes
- 43.727
- Fruta
- 72.090
Kalevala
Madmaxista
Nos ha dolido, no dejan comprar (que es lo que querrían los WSBs y (casi) nadie vende porque están aguantando al vencimiento de opciones.
El poco volumen es de los que venden para materializar las ganancias y los Hedge funds que van comprando para cerrar sus cortos.
Y aun asi, el volumen esta en la media, pero ni comparación con el de estos días atrás que era 10 veces mayor.
Decipher
Contra la oscuridad
- Desde
- 28 Ene 2015
- Mensajes
- 81.256
- Fruta
- 140.906
Para que veais que la gente que está en esto no es tan inocente...
Aqui discuten como salirse cuando ocurra el squeeze
There is a prevailing mis-understanding among people fresh to the market that you can buy and sell as much as you want at the "market price." This is false. You are buying and selling from real people or algorithms that believe they can scalp your order. The idealized scenario is that GME rallies, Melvin covers, and everyone at reddit gets out at the top. This represents a misunderstanding of market mechanics. Melvin will cover before we truly know it, and the crash will happen as quick as the rally.
So with recent events, you must ask yourself:
Who is Your Counterparty?
Nothing is a sure bet. How confident are you that your counterparty is who you think it is? Thousands of redditors & new traders beyond have been buying stocks fully confident that Melvin Capital hasn't exited their trade. This is also supported by some analysis provided by two different firms, although their estimates differ some amount. Confounded in this is the interpretation of the data: Does this include market makers and dealers that are short stock but covered with calls or options deltas? Is their information fully accurate in an event the likes of which has never peine? It's tough to know for sure.
Know Everyone's Hand
Your guess on how much they've covered and when they covered has a massive effect on how you perceive the value of this trade. Buying if you think Melvin has $10b notional to cover is a much better bet than if they only have $2b to cover. You also have to consider how much notional the rest of the market has bought in anticipation of a squeeze. The difference between the two represents your effective edge.
Remember, we don't actually know Melvin's current position. We don't know what's going on behind closed doors. We only know the hand they're showing us via media. Has their clearing firm taken over? Has a much bigger collection of firms absorbed the position? Have they been buying since Monday? Have they covered and have new funds entered the space at a much better level?
You are fighting Goliath at a poker table in the city of Gath. The pot is worth $25 billion dollars. Ken Griffin has never lost. Melvin's prime brokers Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche are not used to losing (well, Deutsche is). They will do whatever it takes to take the pot from you and leave you holding the bag. They will not blink twice because there is a lot of ing money on the line.
Know What Can Go Wrong
Nobody could have guessed everything that peine this week. Prepare yourself for the unexpected. Your brokerage will undoubtedly close out your position at the worst possible time. The stock could be halted for days. You could be assigned on ITM options. Your stock could get delisted. Your stock may get diluted.
Only Spend What You're Willing to Lose
This one is self explanatory. Your investment could go to zero. Even if you think you make money on every trade, if your bet size is 100%, the long term value of your portfolio is zero***.***
Don't Take Out Loans on Emotional Capital
If you are new, you really don't know the gut-wrenching, stomach-turning feeling of seeing the possibility of your net liquidity hitting zero or negative. It ing sucks. You just know the highs. You're buying along the speculative frenzy and frantic rallies, wrapped in anti-billionaire & pro-underdog themes. It may even feel good to think that a guy who cut his teeth at a firm notorious for an insider trading scandal is getting his comeuppance. We love the feeling. If you are fully invested financially & emotionally, you are completely overleveraged and will pay the price. Make feeling good your goal, and set limits that you can stomach.
There are several feel-good stories of people making life-changing money to pay off their student loans or their family members' surgeries. Please think twice about this, and only spend what you can afford to lose. If placing a bet makes the difference between your pet living or dying, you may have a gambling problem. These were success stories because they got in at a much better level and could have had a much sadder ending.
Secondly, don't take it personal. There are people on the other side of your trades, your brokerage support line, the subreddit, the media. They are all playing their own hand to the best of their knowledge. It's easy to blame a broker, yell at their support desk, hate-tweet at a company, or even rage-text that guy you know who develops APIs at ETrade. A lot of people across the industry are rooting for you. , even Ted Cruz and AOC are rooting for you, because this transcends politics. If you're mad at Melvin Capital or Ken Griffin or the guys who crashed the economy in 2008, keep it that way. They will try and misdirect your anger in every single direction: brokerages, the media, and reddit. If your enemies are a few guys at the top holding a $25b short position and moving levers, keep it that way.
Thirdly, if you don't want to be a human being for the sake of the person on the other side, be a human being for your wallet's sake. You make better financial decisions in the absence of emotions.
Recordar que toda la RETORICA de hacer pagar a los ricos, es para mantener a la gente MOTIVADA y CENTRADA en aguantar las posiciones para que no haya estampida, pero están (de momento) con la cabeza fria y centrados en el objetivo que es exprimir a Melvin Capital.
Aqui discuten como salirse cuando ocurra el squeeze
There is a prevailing mis-understanding among people fresh to the market that you can buy and sell as much as you want at the "market price." This is false. You are buying and selling from real people or algorithms that believe they can scalp your order. The idealized scenario is that GME rallies, Melvin covers, and everyone at reddit gets out at the top. This represents a misunderstanding of market mechanics. Melvin will cover before we truly know it, and the crash will happen as quick as the rally.
So with recent events, you must ask yourself:
Who is Your Counterparty?
Nothing is a sure bet. How confident are you that your counterparty is who you think it is? Thousands of redditors & new traders beyond have been buying stocks fully confident that Melvin Capital hasn't exited their trade. This is also supported by some analysis provided by two different firms, although their estimates differ some amount. Confounded in this is the interpretation of the data: Does this include market makers and dealers that are short stock but covered with calls or options deltas? Is their information fully accurate in an event the likes of which has never peine? It's tough to know for sure.
Know Everyone's Hand
Your guess on how much they've covered and when they covered has a massive effect on how you perceive the value of this trade. Buying if you think Melvin has $10b notional to cover is a much better bet than if they only have $2b to cover. You also have to consider how much notional the rest of the market has bought in anticipation of a squeeze. The difference between the two represents your effective edge.
Remember, we don't actually know Melvin's current position. We don't know what's going on behind closed doors. We only know the hand they're showing us via media. Has their clearing firm taken over? Has a much bigger collection of firms absorbed the position? Have they been buying since Monday? Have they covered and have new funds entered the space at a much better level?
You are fighting Goliath at a poker table in the city of Gath. The pot is worth $25 billion dollars. Ken Griffin has never lost. Melvin's prime brokers Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche are not used to losing (well, Deutsche is). They will do whatever it takes to take the pot from you and leave you holding the bag. They will not blink twice because there is a lot of ing money on the line.
Know What Can Go Wrong
Nobody could have guessed everything that peine this week. Prepare yourself for the unexpected. Your brokerage will undoubtedly close out your position at the worst possible time. The stock could be halted for days. You could be assigned on ITM options. Your stock could get delisted. Your stock may get diluted.
Only Spend What You're Willing to Lose
This one is self explanatory. Your investment could go to zero. Even if you think you make money on every trade, if your bet size is 100%, the long term value of your portfolio is zero***.***
Don't Take Out Loans on Emotional Capital
If you are new, you really don't know the gut-wrenching, stomach-turning feeling of seeing the possibility of your net liquidity hitting zero or negative. It ing sucks. You just know the highs. You're buying along the speculative frenzy and frantic rallies, wrapped in anti-billionaire & pro-underdog themes. It may even feel good to think that a guy who cut his teeth at a firm notorious for an insider trading scandal is getting his comeuppance. We love the feeling. If you are fully invested financially & emotionally, you are completely overleveraged and will pay the price. Make feeling good your goal, and set limits that you can stomach.
There are several feel-good stories of people making life-changing money to pay off their student loans or their family members' surgeries. Please think twice about this, and only spend what you can afford to lose. If placing a bet makes the difference between your pet living or dying, you may have a gambling problem. These were success stories because they got in at a much better level and could have had a much sadder ending.
Secondly, don't take it personal. There are people on the other side of your trades, your brokerage support line, the subreddit, the media. They are all playing their own hand to the best of their knowledge. It's easy to blame a broker, yell at their support desk, hate-tweet at a company, or even rage-text that guy you know who develops APIs at ETrade. A lot of people across the industry are rooting for you. , even Ted Cruz and AOC are rooting for you, because this transcends politics. If you're mad at Melvin Capital or Ken Griffin or the guys who crashed the economy in 2008, keep it that way. They will try and misdirect your anger in every single direction: brokerages, the media, and reddit. If your enemies are a few guys at the top holding a $25b short position and moving levers, keep it that way.
Thirdly, if you don't want to be a human being for the sake of the person on the other side, be a human being for your wallet's sake. You make better financial decisions in the absence of emotions.
Recordar que toda la RETORICA de hacer pagar a los ricos, es para mantener a la gente MOTIVADA y CENTRADA en aguantar las posiciones para que no haya estampida, pero están (de momento) con la cabeza fria y centrados en el objetivo que es exprimir a Melvin Capital.
Abner
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 17 May 2010
- Mensajes
- 3.228
- Fruta
- 6.515
El tema importante es que lo han hecho en una acción en la que había varios hedge funds posicionados.a la baja. Hacer un pump and dump en una acción en la que no hay cortos no es más que un ponzi en el que los últimos pagan los beneficios de los primeros. Pero si hay grandes operadores con cortos, es una forma de quitar dinero a los grandes operadores para dárselo a los pequeños particulares. Normalmente el flujo es al revés. Los hedge funds se juntan con las casas de valoración, y se dedican a publicar valoraciones negativas o positivas según estén posicionados, de modo que el inversor ingenuo que se cree la noticia se posiciona justo como quieren los hedge funds. Si un banco o similar te ofrece a en lugar de b es porque b suele ser mejor para ti y peor para ellos. Cuando la mayoría de la gente se de cuenta cambiarán la táctica y harán psicología inversa. La cuestión es ganar a la.mayoria para ir quitándoles su dinero.
Lo de Gamestop ha sido un poco de justicia poética, una leche con la mano abierta de los particulares a los grandes.fondos por su trilerismo. Creo que solo Melvin Capital ya perdió 1000 millones el primer día de la operación por las posiciones en corto que tenían que cubrir.
Enviado desde mi Mi A2 mediante Tapatalk
Kluster
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 19 Jul 2010
- Mensajes
- 21.495
- Fruta
- 60.416
No acabo de entender lo del vencimiento de opciones de las 22:00h
¿Es un vencimiento de obligaciones de venta para los fondos que los tienen en cartera?
Es decir ¿Tienen los retardeds un buen puñado de opciones de esas y van a pillar cacho?
¿Es un vencimiento de obligaciones de venta para los fondos que los tienen en cartera?
Es decir ¿Tienen los retardeds un buen puñado de opciones de esas y van a pillar cacho?
Leunam
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 20 Ene 2013
- Mensajes
- 1.326
- Fruta
- 2.931
Faldo
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 14 Dic 2006
- Mensajes
- 9.217
- Fruta
- 16.371
Yo desde hace muchos años pensaba en probar una estrategia por la cual invertía al contrario de lo que me aconsejase ciertos medios. Pero llego un día que perdi toda la pasta que tenia en bolsa haciendo el gilipilas y no volví a tocar el broker desde entonces.
Kluster
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 19 Jul 2010
- Mensajes
- 21.495
- Fruta
- 60.416
¿Por que recomiendas ING?
maxkuiper
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 25 Ene 2014
- Mensajes
- 8.903
- Fruta
- 27.165
Y tu eres un personajillo
Tenzing Norgay
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 2 Oct 2016
- Mensajes
- 1.216
- Fruta
- 5.227
De hecho, son algo menos de 20€ la comisión por transacción (20$). Por trolear merece la pena. No cobran custodia si haces un movimiento en seis meses. Lo das de alta en segundos y luego la cierras en unos meses cuando todo se aclare.
OYeah
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 16 Nov 2017
- Mensajes
- 43.727
- Fruta
- 72.090
No parece que se vaya a llegar al momento ese que contáis de VW, cuando los fondos no pudieron conseguir las acciones suficientes y el precio subió hasta la locura. Lo están manteniendo por debajo de los 300.
El forero @Tenzing Norgay decia que se llegaria a los 700 al cierre. No entiendo porqué, no lo veo.
El forero @Tenzing Norgay decia que se llegaria a los 700 al cierre. No entiendo porqué, no lo veo.
Nico
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 6 Sep 2006
- Mensajes
- 54.611
- Fruta
- 190.420
Excelente.
Sugiero a TODO EL MUNDO, tomarse el trabajo de leer esto (o traducirlo y leerlo). Claro como el agua.
Kluster
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 19 Jul 2010
- Mensajes
- 21.495
- Fruta
- 60.416
Vale, ya me he informado bien.
Las opciones dejan de existir y punto. No obligan a comprar o vender a ninguna de las partes.
Entonces ¿donde está el drama de que venzan hoy?
OYeah
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 16 Nov 2017
- Mensajes
- 43.727
- Fruta
- 72.090
Esto parece que se queda ya así. Me imagino que arreglarán el desaguisado durante el fin de semana con llamadas de teléfono y se repartirán la vaselina.
A partir de entonces ya tema juzgados si deciden ir a por Robin Hood, y sobretodo tema control Internet. A ese subreddit auguro que le queda poco tiempo.
A partir de entonces ya tema juzgados si deciden ir a por Robin Hood, y sobretodo tema control Internet. A ese subreddit auguro que le queda poco tiempo.
Tafetán
Cuñado nija
- Desde
- 11 Abr 2020
- Mensajes
- 54
- Fruta
- 200
No tengo tan claro que el mensaje sea comprar hoy. El mensaje importante ,creo, es no vender hoy. Ni mañana, ni en una semana.
El poco volumen indica que efectivamente no hay pánico vendedor a pesar de toda el ruido mediático. El precio ha pegado un petardazo al inicio por el premarket y luego ha caído a un rango relativamente estable. Hasta las 14:30 hora USA no creo que veamos movimientos fuertes, si lo hay.
Insisto en que esto no es un partido que acaba hoy, que esto va para largo si los retards aguantan. Lo que pasa es que como es viernes y hay vencimiento se crea la imagen de que la guerra termina con el cierre. Los pueblerino ganan, los ricos pierden, y a otra cosa. La movida no va por ahí a mi parecer.
Decipher
Contra la oscuridad
- Desde
- 28 Ene 2015
- Mensajes
- 81.256
- Fruta
- 140.906
Se ha alcanzado un punto estable y están esperando a que Melvin ceda por no poder pagar los intereses de las acciones que pidió prestadas, entiendo.
OYeah
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 16 Nov 2017
- Mensajes
- 43.727
- Fruta
- 72.090
Los fondos tienen que comprar las acciones si o si al cierre. Al precio que los retards tengan, si quieren venderlas. Si no las venden o no hay suficentes acciones, es cuando hay el efecto ese de VW donde aparecen marcianos, el rayo Gamma, y la FED a la vez.
Más o menos, no me hagas mucho caso.