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Ozon el Amazon de Rusia

Tronald Dump · 2021-04-13T14:43:13+00:00

Crunching the numbers We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Levered FCF (RUB, Millions) -₽14.1b ₽1.41b ₽29.0b ₽43.0b ₽74.9b ₽101.5b ₽127.3b ₽150.8b ₽171.1b ₽188.4b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 35.48% Est @ 25.45% Est @ 18.43% Est @ 13.51% Est @ 10.07% Present Value (RUB, Millions) Discounted @ 13% -₽12.5k ₽1.1k ₽20.3k ₽26.8k ₽41.5k ₽49.9k ₽55.6k ₽58.5k ₽59.0k ₽57.7k ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₽358b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The relleniton Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 13%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₽188b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (13%– 2.0%) = ₽1.8t Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₽1.8t÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= ₽560b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₽918b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$62.3, the company appears about fair value at a 7.7% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/estimating-intrinsic-value-ozon-holdings-072020471.html

Autor del tema Tronald Dump
Fecha de inicio 13 Abr 2021

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