Histórico de crash en la bolsa

Zapito0076 · 16 Mar 2020

He visto este post en reddit que es muy interesante

os animo a echarle un vistazo

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fj6bdh

Why 1950? :^)

The Bear Market of 1929-1938:

Max. Pullback: -89.2%
Start: September 4th, 1929
Bottom: July 8th 1932
Recovery: November 23rd, 1954 (34 months to bottom; 303 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Black Tuesday, October, 29th 1929. Market crash shook consumer confidence. Leading to runs on banks. Bank failures and severe contraction of money supply resulting in massive deflationary pressure. In 1933, US GDP had fallen by 35% and the unemployment rate hit 25%.

The Bear Market of 1956-1957:

Max. Pullback: -21.5%
Start: August 6th, 1956
Bottom: October 22th 1957.
Recovery: Septemer 24th, 1958 (15 months to bottom; 11 months for recovery)
Catalyst: The "Eisenhower Recession" of 1957-'58 that lasted 8 months.

The Bear Market of 1961-1962:

Max. Pullback: -28%
Start: December 13th, 1961
Bottom: June 26th, 1962
Recovery: September 3rd, 1963 (7 months to bottom; 14 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Flash Crash of 1961-'62: The "Kennedy Slide". Market came close to the bottom again during the Cuban Missile Crisis in Oct 1962.

The Bear Market of 1966:

Max. Pullback: -22.2%
Start: February 10th, 1966
Bottom: October 7th, 1966
Recovery: May 4th, 1967 (8 months to bottom; 7 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Financial Crisis/Credit Crunch of 1966.

The Bear Market of 1968-1970:

Max. Pullback: -36.1%
Start: December 2nd, 1968
Bottom: May 26th, 1970
Recovery: March 6th, 1972 (18 months to bottom; 22 months for recovery)
Catalyst: 1969-'70 Recession - a "mild one" that lasted 11 months.

The Bear Market of 1973-1974:

Max. Pullback: -48.2%
Start: January 12th, 1973
Bottom: October 3rd, 1974
Recovery: July 17th, 1980 (21 months to bottom; 70 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Oil crisis of 1973, 1973-'75 recession that lasted 17 months, stagflation (high unemployment & high inflation).

The Bear Market of 1980-1982:

Max. Pullback: -27.1%
Start: November 21st 1980
Bottom: August 12th, 1982
Recovery: November 3rd, 1982 (21 months to bottom; 3 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Volcker tightening and 1981-'82 recession that lasted 18 months. Recession ended in 1982, as bear market recovered to prior peak.

The Bear Market of 1987:

Max. Pullback: -33.5%
Start: August 26th, 1987
Bottom: December 4th, 1987
Recovery: July 26th, 1989 (3 months to bottom; 20 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Black Monday (Oct 19), but bottom was only in Dec. Recovery surprisingly long but Fed made a series of rate hikes in 1988 to fight inflation.

The Bear Market of 2000-2002:

Max. Pullback: -49.1%
Start: March 27th, 2000
Bottom: October 9th, 2002
Recovery: May 30th, 2007 (31 months to bottom - 56 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Dot-com crash, 2001 recession, 9/11.

The Bear Market of 2007-2009:

Max. Pullback: -56.8%
Start: October 10th 2007
Bottom: March 9th, 2009
Recovery: March 28th, 2013 (17 months to bottom; 49 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Housig bubble crash, Great Financial Crisis.

The Bear Market of 2020-?:

Max. Pullback: -26.7% (so far...)
Start: February 20th, 2020
Bottom: ?
Recovery: ?
Catalyst: ELbichito-19.

Conclusions:

Worse the drawdown, larger the gain required to hit prior peak.

-20% -> +25% to recover

-25% -> +33%

-30% -> +43%

-35% -> +54%

-50% -> +100%

-60% -> +150%

In other words, deeper the drawdown, longer the recovery. (eg, 1973-'74, 2000-'02, 2007-'09)

Last but not least:

Since 1950-
Fastest crash: 1987 bear market (3 months)
Fastest recovery: 1980-1982 bear market (3 months)
6 out of 9 bear markets came amid recessions.
3 of the worst bear markets came amid deep recessions (1973-'74, 2000-'02, 2007-'09).

Histórico de crash en la bolsa

Zapito0076

Madmaxista

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