Tom Lee
Our baseline for 2013 remains that of a tricky 1H, with strength to start (and as we mentioned in earlier notes, we see a move toward 1500) but trinc by a correction that sees 1350 before midyear. This is a contrarian view on timing—we are seeing a growing chorus of investors who see stocks strong throughout 2013. In fact, even notable bears have turned “bullish” on equities in 2013. We do not view this as a sign of “ringing the top”; rather, it is a reminder that investors need to be mindful of consensus and risks to the consensus view.
Este es de JP
Hago un resumen de lo que he leído, los toros e incluso lo mas recalcitrantes osos que son alguien en este mundillo están optimistas. Y eso les mosquea, ni más ni menos.
This consensus view is also central to Doug Kass's 2013 outlook, published today on TheStreet.com.
In the piece, Kass highlighted just how little deviation there is on Wall Street from the consensus call that stocks will gain 10 percent in 2013:
On the latter issue of stock prices, strategists are unusually tight in their year-end S&P 500 forecasts, with Bank of America, Bank of Montreal, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, KKR, JPMorgan and Oppenheimer all in the range between 1550 and 1615, representing, on average, about a 10% gain for the full year. BTIG and Barclays are at 1525. Only UBS (1425) and Morgan Stanley (1434) stand out from the crowd.