Women's support for VOX doubles, circulating figures suggest

Women's support for VOX doubles, circulating figures suggest

The figure has been doing the rounds in Spain's political rumour mills for weeks: VOX's female vote would have gone from 10% in 2023 to 20% in current voting intention, according to the numbers being bandied about in the debate. A range that, if confirmed, would break the glass ceiling of Abascal's party among women and leave the PSOE (Spain's main centre-left party) without its most loyal reservoir of votes. Among the explanations being floated, some argue that women are the first victims of rising street crime. Other readings are less comfortable.

What lies behind the shift from 10% to 20% among female VOX voters

The argument repeated most often by those analysing the phenomenon is insecurity. The claim is that women are the main losers from rising crime in certain areas, and that this antiestéticar translates into a punishment vote for the party they see as toughest on immigration and public order. The reasoning has a statistical leg and an emotional one, and the two should not be confused.

Some add a second factor: remigration as a banner. VOX has spent years talking about expelling irregular immigrants, a stance its voters consider risky but brave. The credit, they say, lies in having kept it up while everyone else dodged the issue. That discourse has stopped being taboo among certain female segments that once viewed it sideways.

The profile of the young voter switching sides

The focus has shifted to women aged 18 to 24. There the pattern is different: they don't vote out of antiestéticar of immigrants, they vote as aesthetic rebellion. Being VOX has become, in certain circles, the countercultural thing, what sets you apart from the system and from whatever the telly says. Being called a fascist has stopped being an insult and become a badge of honour.

The phenomenon is part posturing, part fed-upness. Some describe these voters as glued to their phones, with the attention span of an amoeba and a marked allergy to sustained effort. Others, by contrast, work, have children and don't waste time on nonsense. The "young woman" category hides realities that don't fit in a single box.

The PSOE and the cost of taking its electorate for granted

The most cynical reading is also the most widespread: when a bloc of voters switches sides en masse, it usually heralds a bigger pendulum swing. The PSOE is said to have taken the female vote for granted for too long, and is now discovering that loan came with interest. According to this thesis, the grandchildren citizenship law and the push to lower the voting age were attempts to widen its base that the polls have since defused.

The awkward question remains: is VOX the green PSOE, as its critics claim, or something else? The accusation of having voted for the same laws during the Elbichito era circulates insistently. On the other side, the answer is blunt: declared anti-Sarracinism since 2019 and the defence of freedom during the pandemic. The debate is not closed.

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With all this in play, the sensible expectation is that the female vote will keep shifting in the coming elections. How much and in which direction, nobody knows. Anyone claiming to have the formula is lying or selling something.