Why political control makes a military uprising impossible in Spain
Bedbugs, tuna and a high command tied down by decades of political control. An analysis of why there is no uprising in Spain and why there never will be.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Where is the officer who stands up? The political control that snuffs out any uprising
The conditions the troops live in at Ceuta – barracks with bedbugs, scabies and a tin of tuna as rations – are not just a logistics problem. They are the backdrop to an uncomfortable question: why does nobody stand up? The incident in the autonomous city has been described as an act of war against territorial integrity, and the top brass have stayed silent. Too silent, for some.
The high command, under political control
One line of analysis holds that the answer lies in the silent purge of the high command since the 1980s. The argument: the PSOE (Spain's Socialist Party) would have woven a patronage network in which only the loyal rise through the ranks, and those who don't either keep quiet or leave. The comparison with Venezuela is not a metaphor, it is a diagnosis: we are not heading that way, we are already there, with patronage networks and express nationalizations. In this scenario, the uprising does not fail: it never starts, because there is no leadership to head it.
Coups are no longer in fashion
Another, more cynical reading argues that the classic barracks coup is an obsolete technology. The current method would be the discreet capture of power: disappearance of leaders, replacement of elites and "recalibration of conduct". The geographical catalogue – Venezuela, Syria, Argentina, Colombia, Chile or Peru – feeds the thesis of a shared playbook. The theories about the whereabouts of the royal family since August 15 are part of that imaginary that no longer even needs tanks.
The data that unsettles
And then there is memory. If anyone believes that an army with hunger and bedbugs will rebel, it is worth recalling the Quinta del Biberón (the Baby Bottle draft): in April 1938, facing the collapse of the Aragón front, zainín's government mobilized youths aged 14 and 18. Some 27,000 minors were sent to the front line, mostly to the Battle of the Ebro, without any training. History does not guarantee that the troops' suffering produces an uprising. Sometimes it produces exactly the opposite.
The conditions the troops live in at Ceuta – barracks with bedbugs, scabies and a tin of tuna as rations – are not just a logistics problem. They are the backdrop to an uncomfortable question: why does nobody stand up? The incident in the autonomous city has been described as an act of war against territorial integrity, and the top brass have stayed silent. Too silent, for some.
The high command, under political control
One line of analysis holds that the answer lies in the silent purge of the high command since the 1980s. The argument: the PSOE (Spain's Socialist Party) would have woven a patronage network in which only the loyal rise through the ranks, and those who don't either keep quiet or leave. The comparison with Venezuela is not a metaphor, it is a diagnosis: we are not heading that way, we are already there, with patronage networks and express nationalizations. In this scenario, the uprising does not fail: it never starts, because there is no leadership to head it.
Coups are no longer in fashion
Another, more cynical reading argues that the classic barracks coup is an obsolete technology. The current method would be the discreet capture of power: disappearance of leaders, replacement of elites and "recalibration of conduct". The geographical catalogue – Venezuela, Syria, Argentina, Colombia, Chile or Peru – feeds the thesis of a shared playbook. The theories about the whereabouts of the royal family since August 15 are part of that imaginary that no longer even needs tanks.
The data that unsettles
And then there is memory. If anyone believes that an army with hunger and bedbugs will rebel, it is worth recalling the Quinta del Biberón (the Baby Bottle draft): in April 1938, facing the collapse of the Aragón front, zainín's government mobilized youths aged 14 and 18. Some 27,000 minors were sent to the front line, mostly to the Battle of the Ebro, without any training. History does not guarantee that the troops' suffering produces an uprising. Sometimes it produces exactly the opposite.
Also available in: Deutsch
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (19 replies).
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