What on earth is going on in Lebanon? Don't sell me Hezbollah terrorism

Lebanon's government is negotiating with Israel while it bombs Hezbollah, amid an economic collapse that has destroyed the pound and pushed 80% of the population into poverty.

English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published

Lebanon: government uses Israel against Hezbollah while the economy falls apart

Lebanon's government, in a move that has left more than one person baffled, has sat its ambassadors down with Israel's in Washington for the first time since 1948. Meanwhile, Israeli bombs kept falling on the country, killing at least 35 people on the very day of the meeting. The paradox is so stark that it only makes sense if you look at the masterstroke: the Beirut government is using Israel's war machine to get rid of Hezbollah, the only force that truly opposes the advance of 'Greater Israel'. But at what price?

Economic collapse as the backdrop

Lebanon is not entering this crossroads from a position of strength. Since 2019, the country has suffered a total economic collapse. The Central Bank is dry, the Lebanese pound has lost 98% of its value, and 80% of the population lives below the poverty line. A government that cannot pay for electricity or collect the garbage does not negotiate from strength, but from utter desperation. The political class, the very one that looted the country for decades, is now seeking a lifeline in its historic enemy. Its 'legitimacy' is a macabre joke, and its strategy, an all-or-nothing gamble.

Hezbollah: resistance or dead weight?

The debate polarizes around Hezbollah's role. On one hand, it is presented as the only real resistance to the Israeli occupation, a militia that has managed to put the Israeli army in check in the south. On the other, it is accused of being a state within the state, an Iranian arm that acts as a rival to the state's monopoly on violence and prevents the country's stability. Lebanon's government, knowing it cannot defeat Hezbollah militarily, has decided to outsource the dirty work to Israel, which is only too happy to cooperate: it takes out a common enemy and secures a more manageable interlocutor for the future.

The geopolitics of gas and oil

Beneath the surface, energy interests explain a lot. Lebanon sits on possible gas reserves in the Mediterranean, and building pipelines to Europe depends on regional stability. For an oil or gas pipeline to cross Lebanese territory, a docile government is needed, not a Shia militia that answers to Tehran. Israel and the U.S. need Lebanon to become a submissive energy hub, and the first step toward that is eliminating Hezbollah, by hook or by crook.

International law, the awkward guest

Meanwhile, the UN envoy, Mike Waltz, defends possible U.S. attacks on Lebanese power plants and bridges, dismissing accusations of war crimes as 'irresponsible'. Attacks on civilians, such as the one on a nursery school in Minab, keep happening. International law exists only to bind the weak. The U.S. and Israel act with impunity, and the community of nations looks the other way.


How far will this tacit alliance between Beirut and Tel Aviv go? For now, Lebanon's government is playing with fire: using Israel to eliminate Hezbollah may work out, but it could also burn down what little is left of the country. The economy has nothing left to give, and the population, trapped between bombs and misery, is the one paying the price. The question nobody answers is: when Hezbollah falls, what will be left to defend Lebanon?

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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (22 replies).

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