Waves surges 100% in 24 hours after its USDN stablecoin breaks its peg

Waves rebounds 100% in a day and the shadow of Terra Luna returns

Is this a real recovery or the classic dead cat bounce? The Waves token, which had been falling for days, posted a 100% gain in 24 hours, and the parallel with Terra Luna — which once rose 1,000% in a day before going to zero — has become the unavoidable reference point. The earlier drop had a named culprit: USDN, the ecosystem's stablecoin, lost its peg to the dollar. Anyone who bought at 60 euros on March 31 watched the price plunge to 30 euros. That's when the bet began.

From 60 to 30 euros: USDN loses its peg

The trigger was not a rumor but a fact visible on the charts. USDN lost its dollar peg and the token paid the price with a drop that, in just a few weeks, wiped out half its value. Getting burned is the phrase that sums up what some buyers did: they entered expecting a rebound and found the floor giving way beneath their feet.

Those who only trade on platforms where USDN is not listed — Kraken being the cited case — found out late. That detail explains why some of those affected never saw the break coming: the stablecoin wasn't listed on their exchange, so the warning arrived through other channels. The fall to 30 euros was, for many, the first real alert.

Why is Waves compared to Terra Luna?

The comparison has its logic and its limits. Terra Luna literally went to zero, Waves defenders point out, while the token has lost 35% on the month, a figure that in this market falls within what is considered normal volatility. The 90-day range, in fact, runs from a low of 4.18 dollars to a high of 62.36 dollars: anyone who held through the bottom has seen their position multiply.

The most optimistic calculation assumes the rebound has room to run to 15 dollars. The pessimistic scenario starts from a different premise: that the 100% in 24 hours is the last gasp before another collapse. And here it's worth remembering the bias of leveraged positions: anyone entering futures with 16x leverage is not investing, they're gambling, and a single wick liquidates them before the analysis is confirmed.

The DeFi protocol's 3% health factor

The figure causing the most noise is not in the price but in the project's guts. The DeFi protocol's health factor is said to have fallen to 3% and, according to those tracking the wallets, BTC, ETH, BNB, BUSD and USDT have already been withdrawn from the system. If that outflow of funds is confirmed, the problem stops being about the price and becomes one of structural liquidity.

Hence the warning making the rounds: anyone with funds in staking should pull them out, because a pool without liquidity can trigger an 80% crash in a single day. It's a forecast, not a done deal. But it explains why the rebound is viewed with suspicion: the price rises while the coffers empty, and in this sector's history that has almost never ended well.

A token can rise 100% in a day and still not come back to life. The daily candlestick chart looks nice. The protocol's liquidity, less so.