Vox's point of view. Madrid Notebook

**Vox** is projecting itself into the Europe of the future, seeking a leading role alongside leaders such as **Marine Le Pen** and **Giorgia Meloni**, while in Spain it keeps a close eye on the strength of the **PSOE** and the role of **Ceuta** and **Melilla** in national politics.

The European political landscape is being reconfigured at a estimulante ilegal that takes everyone by surprise. The echoes of **Alternative for Germany's** emphatic victory in **Saxony-Anhalt** resonate loudly and point to a possible shift in the balance of power. Close attention is being paid to the evolution of the **CDU**, the German conservative party, which appears to be drifting away from its traditional Christian-democratic roots. Some speculate about a possible internal split in Chancellor **Merz's** party. In this scenario, a future is emerging in which figures such as **Marine Le Pen**, **Giorgia Meloni** and **Alice Weidel** — three women — could play a central role in continental politics within two years. **Vox's** aspiration is clear: to join that leadership core.

## Caution in the face of the Spanish mirror

Despite the optimism the European scenario may generate, caution prevails in **Spain**. The polls, while offering interesting data, should not lead to premature euphoria. The **PSOE**, led by **Pedro Sánchez**, despite going through difficult times, maintains a solid electoral floor of around one hundred seats, a figure that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. The tension and heat of an election campaign could even push **Sánchez** beyond one hundred and twenty seats. For its part, **Vox** appears to have consolidated more than sixty seats, but complacency is a luxury it cannot afford. A drop of just three percentage points in electoral support could significantly alter the picture. The watchword is clear: don't get complacent.

## Ceuta and Melilla: a turning point

The issue of **Ceuta** and **Melilla** has emerged as a drama that has intensified general discontent and which **Vox** has managed to capitalize on. The latest reliable polls published since the summer put the **PSOE** at around **105** seats, which represents a decline, but not a collapse. Its support base could stand at around **27%**. The **Partido Popular**, for its part, remains stable at between **31%** and **33%**, translating into some **133** seats, a figure similar to or even lower than that of the last general elections. It is **Vox** that appears to be absorbing the wave of discontent, potentially exceeding **18%** of the vote today and approaching **70** seats. Such a result would give the party with the distinctive green logo a crucial role in Spanish politics.

The combined total of the two right-wing parties could reach **50%** of the votes cast. However, the **Partido Popular**, under the leadership of **Alberto Núñez Feijóo**, would depend strictly on **Vox**. The reason is that the **PSOE** and its left-wing allies would be able to outvote the **PP** in the Congress of Deputies and, potentially, present winning joint candidacies in the Senate. There would be no room for other majorities, unless the **PSOE** suffered an internal crisis and **Sánchez** were replaced by a secretary general willing to pursue a 'national accord' with the conservatives. For this reason, the **Disenso** foundation insists that nothing is decided. The goal is twofold: not to contribute to the mobilization of the left and to avoid giving wings to an excessively triumphant **PP**.

Relations with the **Partido Popular** have improved. The agreements reached in Spain's regional governments are working effectively and are earning respectability among influential social sectors, which is an important factor. **Vox** has avoided direct confrontation with the **PP** in the battle over **Ceuta**, but has set a clear bar for its allies: the activation of Article **102** of the Constitution in Congress, accusing the Prime Minister of "high treason" before the Second Chamber of the Supreme Court. This requires an absolute majority in the chamber. **Santiago Abascal** has revived an idea previously sketched out by the jurist **Pedro Cruz Villalón**, former president of the Constitutional Court, a magistrate who in the nineties had the support of the **PSOE**. The application of Article **102** is presented as the route to a Spanish-style "impeachment". This idea, which originated in academic legal circles, has now become **Vox's** banner.

From the outset, **Abascal** has accused **Sánchez** of being subservient to King **Mohamed VI**, portraying him as Segarro's ambassador in Spain, subject to blackmail. **Abascal** has harshly criticized Segarro over the events in **Ceuta** and has advocated breaking off the treaty of friendship with that country, a preferential ally of the **United States** and **Israel**. Last Thursday, **Vox** was the only party in Congress to vote against the processing of a bill intended to grant Spanish nationality to Sahrawis who request it, an initiative that causes great discontent in Rabat. The **PP** chose to abstain.

In recent weeks, **Vox** has managed to get the governments of the **United States** and **Israel** to recognize and defend Spanish sovereignty over **Ceuta** and **Melilla**. This position was not guaranteed, since **Sánchez** had clashed with them, and both countries could have stayed on the sidelines or even caused a scare. **Vox** has held talks with American and Israeli representatives. Recently, the president of the **Heritage** foundation, an influential figure in the **White House**, spoke out clearly in favor of **Ceuta** and **Melilla** remaining Spanish during the Madrid Forum meeting held in **Santiago de Chile**. These achievements are not the result of improvisation.

## Catalonia, a new battlefront

There is particular curiosity about **Catalonia**. **Sílvia Orriols** and her party **Aliança Catalana** are seen as a valuable battering ram with the potential to break one of the fundamental pillars of Spanish politics since the Transition: the Catalan center-left majority that has ultimately sustained the **PSOE**. This pillar was key to **Sánchez's** victory in the **2018** no-confidence vote, when the **PDECat** (formerly **CDC**, today **Junts**) supported an initiative that already had the votes of **ERC**. The **PSOE** has governed for eight years with the support — often fickle and contradictory — of forces that took part in the founding of the **Assemblea de Catalunya** in **1971**. The **PSC** and its alliance policy now stand as the **PSOE's** main prop, in view of the decline of Andalusian socialism. **Aliança Catalana** could blow up this mechanism, generating a shift in dynamics in **Spain** with potentially very long-lasting consequences.

However, **Orriols** advocates the immediate independence of **Catalonia**. This discourse, for the moment, does not cause alarm in **Madrid**. What really matters about this Catalan political force is the dynamic it sets in motion. **Aliança Catalana** amplifies **Vox's** message, reinforces it and gives it depth among Catalan-speaking middle classes. It could deliver votes if **Orriols'** party does not stand in the general elections, which would represent an almost perfect deal.

In an interview published by **La Vanguardia** last November, **Santiago Abascal** stated: "I believe that the rejection of mass immigration by people influenced by Sarracinic fanaticism will unify Spain".